AFC South_HOUSTON TEXANS
HOUSTON TEXANS- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card. This article focuses on 3 tables and their analysis.
- 2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels
- 2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages
- 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.
I suggest these will present a landscape of simple data from 2019 vs the current 2020 preseason rankings. Link to my Current Rankings Below.
2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels
This Table includes:
- Bye Week
- Position Rankings
- Overall Name
- Fantasy Sport’s Professor’s Rankings (Scale of 100 to 0-Green to Red)
- Uncertainty Level of High, Average or Low
HOUSTON TEXANS- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card.
The Hou DST has not been as strong as the olden days. I rank them at 22nd DST. Fairbairm is K1 type at K9. The fireworks for 2020 go through their QB. Watson has a nice skill set with some rushing power. I rank him at 5 QB but I will watch and listen for him developing rappore with the new WR weapons of Cooks and Cobb. Losing Hopkins will be seen early in the season as Watson settles down.
The RBs are just ok as HOU brought in D Johnson (RB21) from ARI. I have him at a RB2 level but he could surprise. I am bullish on him at his ADP price. Johnson is a solid handcuff and adds to the mix at RB 47. Try to catch bought if you go in for DJ or take Duke late on an injury gamble in a ZERO RB approach.
Next, the TEs are a forgotten piece of the HOU offense but I do note that Fells was a strong RZ producer and he could be a fill inTE at TE36. Nice TE 3 in a TE forward league. He is still a high uncertainity play.
Finally, the HOU crew should be a high flying crew. I see boom or bust depending of game flow in 2020. Fuller at WR 35 and Cooks at WR 42 are close together and should be a 1A and 1B play. Stills and Cobb at 70 and 75 are also close and given the 3rd WR split, they are ready for upside only with injury. Cobb is the safe play while Stills is a high uncertain WR.
2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages
This table presents:
- 2016 to 2019 Fantasy Point Averages
- 4 Year Sum of Averages
- % of Positional Usage by the 4-Year Date
- % of 2019 Team Usages
- DIFF – 2019 vs last 4-year % Usages (Improving or Declining)
HOUSTON TEXANS- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card. The Texans had a poor 2019 by the numbers (Passing Based). Only the QB gained by 4%. Rushing QBs can generate FPs!
However, the 2019 QBs was the top in the last 4 years. RB were ok but usages dropped given the QB improved. Raw Numbers showed 2019 was tops in WR/RBs but % usages were lower. TEs were forgotten.
In the end, I use both metrics to consider 2020. Nothing suggests extreme increases for 2020. Hopkins was traded for David Johnson RB. The seems to be a negative and does not give me extreme confidence for 2020. Certainly, I suggest buying cheap and do not overpay for anyone.
2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.
This table contains:
- 2015 to 2019 Targets Per Game
- 5 Year Average of Targets Per Game
- %2019 Usages in Targeting
- % 5-Year Positional Usage Average
- DIFF 2019 vs 5-Year Average of Team Positional Usages
HOUSTON TEXANS- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card. Overall Comments: 2019 was a steady year with RBs at +1.6%, WRs at 1.1% and TEs dropping at 2%.
The 2020 issue is the lost of Hopkins. The public looking at the WRs sees no real WR1 type but a collection of 5 WRs at the WR3/4 level and less. That does not inspire confidence. I could see in 2020, a spread of T/G among these guys who are Will Fuller WR36, Brandin Cooks WR42, Randall Cobb WR73, Kenny Stills WR75, and Keke Coutee WR99 (ADPs).
HOU may have add DJ as a pass catching RB moving to a more short passing game. I think DJ could have an interesting 2020. The RBs are David Johnson RB21 and Duke Johnson RB47 and are both pass-catchers. I would take either for 2020 at their price.
Finally, the HOU TEs have had good season but its been awhile. The current TEs are Darren Fells TE36 and Jordan Akins TE42 and the public cannot pick the TE1 between then. Either is a gamble but better in a TE premium league of course. I again note Fells was the RZ guy in 2019.