Week 16 features a nice 11 game main slate with 5 teams projected as at least touchdown favorites. SEA has the highest total with a substantial 30.5 implied team total. Some notable injuries/starts include Grier (CAR is benching Allen), Jacobs (OUT) and Jeffery (IR). I’m interested in “spending up” at tight end with Ertz being the most expensive option at only $6400. If I MME, I’m only playing 3-5 players in my tight end player pool. Shout out to everyone in your season long championships this week. Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Dak Prescott, $6400, Dallas Cowboys
6% projected ownership
Dak seems to be going a bit overlooked in a spot against an unimpressive Eagles defense. Taking on the Eagles in a must-win playoff scenario for both teams, I’m expecting Jason Garrett to do whatever it takes to get the W here. Dak ranks 3rd just behind Brees and Jackson in DVOA passing this week in large part due to the offensive line giving up sacks on just 4% of dropbacks (slate best.) With time in the pocket, I expect Prescott to have success through the air where his receivers will have a noticeable advantage.
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Ryan Tannehill, $6600, Tennessee Titans
3% projected ownership
Tannehills’ success with the Titans has been nothing short of amazing. Having floundered in Miami under Adam Gase, Tannehill has had a fantasy resurgence of sorts since leaving the dysfunction. Since taking over as starter, Tannehill trails only Lamar Jackson in FPPG. I won’t call the Saints a reverse funnel but they have allowed significantly more production through the air than the ground (13th/27th FPts allowed by pass and rush respectively.) The Saints efficient offense has forced their defense into seeing the 3rd most pass attempts in the league as teams try to keep pace.
Jackson, Wilson, Brees
Fitzpatrick, Wentz, Rivers, Lock
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Joe Mixon, $6600, Cincinnati Bengals
15% projected ownership
Mixon should be somewhat popular Sunday as the next in line to face the swinging door that is the Miami Dolphins defense. The matchup sets up nicely as the Dolphins allow a massive 28.3 DKPts to opposing running backs (7th worst.) Per @Josh_ADHD’s Premium Usage App, no running back commands more usage than Mixon with a league high 78.5% MS Rush touches. In fact, over the past 2 weeks, no other skill position player has touched the ball more than Mixon.
Marlon Mack, $6200, Indianapolis Colts
9% projected ownership
Vegas is bullish on the Colts as they host the Will Grier led Panthers at home. The Colts should have plenty of offensive opportunities too as 7 point favorites and a 26.75 implied team total (3rd highest and bet up from 26.) The match-up doesn’t get any better as the Panthers rank dead last in FPts allowed to running backs. If there’s ever a spot for a ceiling game this is it.
Carson, CMC, Barkley
Sanders (no healthy receivers, featured role plus 2nd best OL/DL Matchup for rushing according to PFF), Lindsay, Freeman
Washington (will absolutely be in the player pool but underweight his massive ownership), Henry (the path of least resistance is through the air plus his hamstring), Drake (I’m not chasing)
Steven Sims Jr., $4000, Washington Redskins
4% projected ownership
Redskins’ OC Kevin O’Connell followed through on his promise to get Sims the ball more in Week 15. An undrafted rookie, Sims recorded his first receiving touchdown of the year while connecting on 5 of 11 Haskins targets. Over the last 2 games, Sims leads the Redskins in targets (18) and AirYards (172.) Per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart no player has more of an advantage than Sims against Corey Ballentine (ranked 120/122 cornerbacks.) While I expect Adrian Peterson to gut it out again this week, I’ll look to attack this Giants secondary who give up the 6th most FPts to opposing wideouts.
DK Metcalf, $5900, Seattle Seahawks
10% projected ownership
The Seahawks offense is in a great spot Sunday hosting the Arizona Cardinals. With a slate-leading 30.5 implied team total, prioritize these offensive pieces in your build. While Metcalf has only reached a ceiling game once this year, a 100/2 type game is well within his range of outcomes. His match-up with Patrick Peterson ranks as top 5 as well. Among all Seattle fantasy assets, Metcalf projects to be the lowest owned. Rostering Metcalf here is a great way to vault you to the top of the leaderboard when he rumbles for a long one.
Lockett, Allen, Julio
Sutton, A.J. Brown, Cooper, Boyd
Zach Ertz, $6400, Philadelphia Eagles
11% projected ownership
The tight end position is such a wasteland this week (as is most weeks.) While Austin Hooper appears to be the chalk, I want to attack the Cowboys weakness over the middle with Ertz. It’s not a shock that he leads the slate in Route Participation % (89.4% PP), Tar/Gm (9.1) and Rec/Gm (6.) This season, the Cowboys have had trouble defending opposing tight ends, giving up the 7th most FPts to the position. After a disappointing first meeting between the 2 teams, expect the Eagles to rely on Ertz to compensate for their decimated receiving corp. I’m expecting double digit catches, over a hundred yards and a trip to the end zone in what should be an exciting game.
Hollister, Hooper, Waller
(My preference in that order)