Week 13 is here and I couldn’t be more excited! We have 6 teams projected to score over 25 points. KC, PHI and CAR are heavy favorites. This is a spend up at QB/WR kind of slate as you’ll soon find out. Lots of injuries at receiver so keep your ear to the ground on twitter. Anyways, let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Patrick Mahomes, $7400, Kansas City Chiefs
13% projected ownership
We’ve seen recently how paying up for quarterbacks can pay dividends. In Week 13, no other quarterback costs more than Mahomes at $7400. I’m still buying at this price with his slate breaking 30 plus point upside.
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As I stated earlier, the Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.75 playing at Arrowhead. Reid funnels the Chiefs’ offense through Mahomes. The Raiders give up the 4th most DKPts to opposing quarterbacks with a 23.4 gm/avg. He’ll surely be popular, but the key to this slate is to find value and differentiate elsewhere.
Sam Darnold, $6100, New York Jets
3% projected ownership
I think he’s done seeing ghosts, you guys. Darnold is coming off 2 pretty impressive fantasy outings of 26.4 and 31.2 DKPts and now gets to face the Bengals.
Part of his success can be attributed to his receivers, who average two yards of separation at the point of the catch (slate best/Player Profiler.) His low salary ($6100) and matchup (Bengals bottom 10 in DKPts allowed to QB) also make him a viable tournament play this week.
Tannehill, Winston, Rodgers, Murray
Saquon Barkley, $7400, New York Giants
10% projected ownership
This is a something must break situation for me. Over the last month, the Giants rank last in points earned at the running back position, while the Packers rank 5th best in FPts allowed.
Barkley has been slow to get back on track having not rushed for 100 yards since week 2. Despite his recent disappointing outings, however, he is still seeing a 36% Market Share of team touches while logging 97% of his teams snaps (6th highest rate.) Furthermore, his salary has continued to dump from the $9000 range making him very affordable in a great matchup. I actually looked it up and this is the cheapest he’s been since entering the league in 2017. The Packers are surrendering 29.5 DKPts to opposing running backs (avg/game.)
Ronald Jones, $5100, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4% projected ownership
Jones is intriguing this week given his cheap price tag along with his matchup against the Jags. Since taking over as the nominal starter, he’s been quietly reliable minus a week 11 dud against the Saints. The Bucs’ team total of 25 is 5th highest on the slate.
The way to attack Jacksonville is on the ground in case you missed Henry’s performance last week. The Jags are 2nd worst against the rush but 10th best against receivers. This game reminds me of the Spider man pointing meme. Who’s the bigger funnel defense here?
CMC, Bell, Sanders, Jonathan Williams
Jacobs, Fournette, AJ, (Chase Edmonds will be in my player pool)
Nelson Agholor, $4400, Philadelphia Eagles
4 projected ownership
Nailing the Eagles offensive pieces in tournaments will make or break you this week. I like Agholor here with his price and depressed ownership. A full participant in Friday’s practice, Agholor is expected to suit up Sunday. He’ll line up against Miami slot corner, Jomal Wiltz who grades out 110/118 cover corners according to PFF. In his last 2 games Agholor has 8 and 9 targets. Miami gives up the 12th most DKPts to opposing wide receivers (38.4 gm/avg.)
Christian Kirk, $5700, Arizona Cardinals
11% projected ownership
Kirk should go more overlooked in a perceived tougher matchup here. Averaging 9 targets/game over the last four weeks, Kirk takes on the Rams, who rank 7th worst in FPts allowed to wide receivers. Over this same span, no other team earns more fantasy points by their wide receivers than the Cardinals. Kirk is top 10 in targets and receptions/game.
Hill, Adams (egregious price), Chark, Mike Evans
A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Slayton
Tyler Higbee, $2500, Los Angeles Rams
7% projected ownership
What? How is minimum priced Higbee not 40% owned here? The Cardinals have been terrible against opposing tight ends giving up the most yards (846) and touchdowns (12.) With Everett already ruled out, I expect Higbee to play almost all the snaps in this situation. Over the last 2 weeks, Higbee had already seen a 70% snap rate. Sometimes defenses do matter, folks.
PHI, CAR, BAL, NYJ, LAR, CIN
My preference in that order