WEEK 10 MILLY MAKER PLAYS

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

Week 10 features 6 teams with implied totals over 26. MIA and ATL are the biggest dogs on the slate. Mahomes, Brissett, and Ryan could play this week so monitor the practice reports. Kamara and DJ look like they’ll be making their return. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Kyler Murray, $6500, Arizona Cardinals

14% projected ownership

Rostering Murray at QB checks all the boxes this week. His team ranks 1st in Pace of Play (Football Outsiders), he’s facing a reverse funnel pass D in TB (4th QB DVOA and 26th RB DVOA FPts allowed), he gets another weapon back in DJ, and his team allows the most DK points to opposing QB. I do like running him naked here as they spread the ball around A LOT.

Lamar Jackson, $7300, Baltimore Ravens

15% projected ownership

Normally when looking over stats for quarterbacks I’ll check out metrics related to that position. But in the case of Jackson, his rushing workload moves him into RB territory. Jackson is currently ranked 7th in the league in rushing yards and 12th in rushing TDs…as a quarterback. The Bengals give up the 3rd most DKPts to opposing RBs (32 avg/game) and 8th most to QBs (22.8 avg/game). His ownership (as expected) is very high but I’m not worried because we can separate ourselves from the field in other ways. The Ravens are projected to score 27.5 points as 9.5 road favorites. 

Drew Brees, $6700, New Orleans Saints

9% projected ownership

Brees beat his recovery time table in his return from a thumb injury that held him out for 5 weeks. In Week 8, Brees didn’t disappoint. In his return to action, he hung up 373/3 on ARI; good for 28.9 DKPts. Coming off an extra week of rest, we should expect more of the same. The 1-7 Falcons have given up the 4th most DKPts to opposing QB (24.9 avg/game). The Falcons have been above average against the rush (ranking 19th in rushing DVOA), but pourous against the pass (ranking 3rd in passing DVOA FPts allowed). The Saints have the highest implied team total with 32. 

Chalk QB:

Winston

Also Consider: 

Mahomes, Tannehill, Brissett

RB

David Montgomery, $5300, Chicago Bears

14% projected ownership

Montgomery seems to finally be in the RB2 conversation after Matt Nagy dug his head out of the sand. It seems he’s finally seen enough of Trubisky to realize he needs a more balanced offense to win games. Over the course of the last 2 weeks, Montgomery has went for 4x his salary making him a great option at the position, while his snap rate has increased from around 50% to around 75%. Detroit ranks dead last in DKPts allowed to opposing running backs (33.6.) 

Devin Singletary, $5000, Buffalo Bills

18% projected ownership

It’s looking more and more like WR is the spot to diversify lineups this week. At 18% projected ownership, I’m fine to match the field at this price and ownership projection. Having dealt with an injured hammy and the peskiness of Frank Gore all season, Singletary finally had a nice breakout game handling 20/95/1 while adding 3/45 through the air. It was the first time all year he lead the team in rushing (20) and snaps (66%). Cleveland is currently a home favorite but I expect sharp money to hit BUF on the moneyline. Singletary ranks 1 in DVOA for running backs this week.  

Even More Chalk RB:

CMC, Mack (underweight the field here), AJ

Also Consider:

DJ, Kamara (if he goes), Barkley, Samuels 

WR

Jamison Crowder, $5000, New York Jets

6% projected ownership

With Darnold under center, Crowder is averaging a team high 9 targets a game. According to PFF, Crowder has the nut matchup against Corey Ballentine in the slot (46% advantage). The Giants are second only to the Bucs in DKPts allowed to opposing receivers (43.9 avg). The Jets lead the slate with a 12% offensive sack rate allowed. This all adds up for another nice game for Crowder. 

Zach Pascal, $5300, Indianapolis Colts

5% projected ownership

Mack is looking like he’ll be some serious chalk this week, making Pascal a great leverage play. PFF has Pascal as a top 5 play based on his matchup against Nik Needham. With T.Y. listed as doubtful, Pascal should be slotted in as the top receiving option.  In Week 9, Pascal played a season-high 94% of offensive snaps and lead the team in MSAirYds (45.5%) and MSTargets (20%). In Week 10, he ranks 4th in receiving DVOA. The Dolphins are tied for last in touchdowns allowed to opposing WR (13).

Chalk WR:

Thomas, Evans, Kirk, Godwin

Also Consider:

Julio (low ownership in the dome), Hollywood Brown

TE:

O.J. Howard, $3300, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4% projected ownership

Make no mistake, Howard has been a massive bust so far this season. He’s missed the last 2 games with a hammy but appears back to full health after the hiatus.  He’s yet to score a touchdown for the season but faces an ARI defense that gives up the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Before his absence, Howard averaged 80% of offensive snaps. The Bucs are currently sporting a healthy 28.25 implied team points.  The Cardinals give up an average 22.6 DKPts/game avg to tight ends.   

Chalk TE:

Doyle, Andrews

Also Consider:

Kelce, Hockenson

DST:

PIT, BAL, IND, NYG, NYJ

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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