CFB DFS Targets Week 11 Day Slate

This might be the most serious CFB DFS Saturday yet. Because, while we are all openly gambling on team and player performances of 18-22 year-old “student athletes”, the NCAA is conducting investigations into very concerning allegations at Ohio St. I haven’t decided which is more ridiculous, that, or Primetime’s name being floated out there for the FSU job.

Actually, it’s the NCAA hands down. What a bunch of hypocritical losers. Besides, who am kidding? I would love to see Sanders on the Seminole sidelines purely for the entertainment value.

Anyway, as always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

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This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
[email protected]OSU 12:00PM ET|43.5|65
[email protected]BC 12:00PM ET|2.5|63.5
[email protected]UT 3:30PM ET|7|57.5
WAKE@VT 3:30PM ET|2|61.5
BAY@TCU 12:00PM ET|2.5|48
[email protected]BAMA 3:30PM ET|6|63
[email protected]SMU 12:00PM ET|21.5|72.5
PSU@MINN 12:00PM ET|6.5|47.5
TTU@WVU 12:00PM ET|2.5|59
[email protected]ASU 3:30PM ET|1.5|57.5
[email protected]UF 12:00PM ET|26.549

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Justin Fields and AJ Dillon. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,383.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. Quick, while the NCAA isn’t looking, let the targeting commence!

Lamical Perine | RB | Florida $5,900

Alright, let’s try this bell-cow running back versus the Vandy defense thing again. For last week’s night post, I discussed the merits of this exact scenario with South Carolina’s Tavien Feaster. It did not go well because of the dreaded CFB DFS nightmare in-game injury, but I stand by the logic that lead to the conclusion.

Vanderbilt is gutter trash, especially on the defensive side. Even with a limited Feaster and no Rico Dowdle, South Carolina’s third and fourth string running backs still managed to put up over 200 yards rushing, averaging over four yards per tote.

They should be a sight for Perine’s sore eyes, where he’ll be safe for a 20-touch floor, with plenty of positive game-flow opportunities, while the Gators are nursing a substantial second half lead. All that, and a below average price is all I need to know here.

SaRodorick Thompson | RB | Texas Tech $5,700

On a similar note, this is not the week to overlook Texas Tech’s SaRodorick Thompson in a plus matchup at West Virginia. Believe me. I know because I have tried to ignore this backfield, and/or speculated too much that Ta’Zhawn Henry would eventually receive an increased role in it. But, enough games have occurred to prove that notion just isn’t the case.

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SaRodorick Thompson #28 (Source: Getty Images North America

The fact is that in their five Big 12 games, Thompson has recorded almost 60% of the Red Raider rushes, caught more passes (16), than Henry and Armand Shyne combined (13). Taking a closer look at some game scripts, in the two conference games that were closer, Thompson was leaned on heavily, with 33 and 21-touch workloads. His five touchdowns in conference play also leads the rest of the backfield combined.

Simply put, right here right now, he’s the guy. And, now that Shyne has been lost for the season, I would not expect that to change. In a perfect Vegas game script projection, this is a great price/floor play that includes the sizzle required to be that pop candidate from this price range.

C.J. Johnson | WR | East Carolina $5,500

All the way back in opening week, one of my many shitty takes that weekend was speculating that Deondre Farrier would lead the way for the Pirates receiving core. That did not happen in Week 1 and it hasn’t played out at all so far this season.

Those honors have gone to this impressive freshman, who leads ECU in catches, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions. His recent three game emergence as sophomore quarterback Holton Ahlers’s clear go-to guy capsized with a preposterous, record setting 12-283-1 line in a near upset over Cincinnati.

This a case where I like to take advantage of a player who is clearly on the upswing of his trajectory, before his price adjusts enough for the value to be gone. No. He’s not going to drop another 200 plus yard receiving performance anytime soon. But, does he now have a similar floor/upside combo to about 15-20 receivers on the board priced above him? I believe he does.

He also has competent quarterback play with Ahlers, and has proven to be productive in their last two blowout losses, where there was plenty of positive game script for the passing game. As huge underdogs at SMU, I’m expecting a 6-7 catch floor, with considerable upside.

Mustang Receivers

Staying in that same game, a significant factor for last week’s night contest, was properly speculating on the fallout from the Reggie Roberson injury. The logical choice of tight end Kylen Granson taking on an increased role panned out as expected.

The surprise came from freshman wideout Rashee Rice netting a 7-122 line out of nowhere. With Roberson expected to remain out of the lineup and the DK pricing not accounting for it, both of these guys present exceptional price/floor/upside combos for this board.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

Finally, a week where I am not going to say Max Duggan! I love me some Max, and look forward to future weeks and seasons of having him slide into my LUs, but he was all over the place last week against Oklahoma St., and his hand injury probably won’t help anything.

Brandon Aiyuk #2 (Source: kent horner/Getty Images North America)

For this board, I like both quarterbacks in the USC/ASU game. Especially, Jayden Daniels who has been highly productive in two games at home against the weaker Pac 12 defenses, scoring over 25 DK points both times. Also in those games, he and Brandon Aiyuk provided a monster CFB DFS performance that typically only the Burrow/Chase, or Hurts/Lamb stacks are able to yield. Just sayin…

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Speaking of LSU, I would prefer paying their premiums as opposed to Alabama’s this week. Not completely fading anyone on Bama because of the Tua uncertainty, but if I was choosing between which offense to emphasize over the other, it’d be the Tigers.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

After piling up over 500 yards of offense on both Florida and Auburn, it’s become pretty clear–no one is stopping these guys. Well executed offenses with high-level play at the quarterback position is going to beat even the best defenses, that have the players who can matchup athletically. As you may have guessed at this point, regardless of CFB DFS implications, I’m all over the Tigers and points.

But, who cares about my hot take here? Even if I’m wrong, I can’t lose! Purely as a fan, I’ve been looking forward to this matchup for weeks. This is like getting a mid-season national title game. I. Can’t. Fucking. Wait!!!

Other than that, I like SMU’s Xavier Jones to bounce back big from a quiet performance, when the Mustangs weren’t able to get much going on the ground against Memphis. He has a much better matchup/game-flow combo this week against ECU.

Meanwhile, after scoring nine touchdowns in their first six games of the season, Wake’s sophomore stud receiver Sage Surratt has not found pay dirt in two straight games. Look for that to change Saturday in Blacksburg.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 11 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!


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