CFB DFS Targets Week 10 Day Slate

CFB DFS must be part of your Saturday to have any chance of enjoying the absolute worst board of games this season! Luckily for everyone’s sake, I have no life and have taken the time to study this garbage slate in order to serve as your conduit into the trenches.

Ahead, I share my genuine thoughts on Week 10, and support them with a combination of data, logic, and hot takes. I’m not certain if any of it will work. Either way, what I do know is that it is an honor going into the CFB DFS battle with you each Saturday.

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
TCU@OKST 3:30PM ET|2.5|59
NCST@WAKE 12:00PM ET|7.5|60.5
MIA@FSU 3:30PM ET|3|49
BC@SYR 12:00PM ET|3|60
ORST@ARIZ 4:30PM ET|5.5|71
UH@UCF 12:00PM ET|22|71
VT@ND 2:30PM ET|17.5|58
UGA@UF 3:30PM ET|6|45
UTAH@UW 4:00PM ET|3.5|47.5
NEB@PUR 12:00PM ET|4|58
MICH@UMD 12:00PM ET|21.5|56

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sage Surratt and Chuba Hubbard. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,617.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. Onto my complaints about Mark Dantonio and the Week 10 targets!

Hassan Haskins | RB | Michigan $4,000

If you have read me at all over the last couple of seasons, chances are you’ve caught the fact that I am a Michigan State supporter. Which, by definition, usually has me wanting and needing to consume scene’s like this…

I tend to go back and forth on religious beliefs. Needless to say, that was a moment where I was certain a higher power not only existed, but was also a fair and just ruler of all creation.

However, above religion, fandom, family, friends and pets, comes the most important thing of all–me. Specifically, me and my CFB DFS lineups. In that regard, no loyalties exist and it’s the market that decides what the business of the day shall be. That is why for this slate, I’ll likely be decked out on my couch in full Wolverine regalia Saturday afternoon.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve discussed how the DK prices are catching up to player roles and performances on the field. In the true spirit of college football, Lee Corso knows what this target indicates…

In all seriousness, how fast would Corso be pulled off the air for this in 2019? Regardless, there isn’t much analysis needed here, but I’ll give it a go.

As much as I despise them, the Michigan offense has been playing well the last two weeks, against quality opponents too. In horrible conditions, where you knew both teams would be forced to rely on the ground game, Wolverine running backs gashed the Irish front, piling up over 300 yards and three scores. This time, it was Haskins, not Zach Charbonnet, that lead the way with a 20-149 line.

Turtling Terrapins

And, probably the more important note is the fact that he has been the first running back to carry the ball in each of their last two games, which also happen to be the biggest ones they’ve played in this season. Now that he is, at the very least, option 1A in the backfield, all I need to know is what will be his matchup. For that, I’ve obtained leaked tape from a trusted source…

If that GIF doesn’t tell you everything you need to know, the least amount of total yards that the Terrapin defense has allowed to a Small Ten opponent is 498. Yes, you read that correctly. That’s the least amount. And, no. I do not count Rutgers, considering that they are basically a Division II football program.

Look, this one is simple. When you find this glorious role/matchup/price combination at the running back position, it’s a must-start in any CFB DFS slate. There’s a legit chance that this selection could produce similar, or even better stat lines than any of the top tailbacks on the board.

It’s Ovah!

Under normal circumstances, the petty, spiteful 13 year-old girl inside of me would cheer for Maryland to shock the world, and slurp up all the delicious Michigan fan tears in the process. Not this week. Here, the rational, business side of my brain has gotten the better of me.

Besides, what’s the point. My Spartans season is over and all I have left is refreshing a YouTube clip from five years ago. Every week now, it’s an utter disaster on the field, and the height of delusion off of it.

That’s why, on behalf of all rational Spartan fans I’d like make a request of Mark Dantonio: Don’t make this any harder than it needs to be. All things reach their end, and this season has to be it. As for all the other idiots in this fan base with your asinine “he deserves one more season”, and “but who are we gonna get to replace him?” takes, Dean Keaton has my message for you…

Chalkless Slate

Phew! Now that I got that off my chest, we can get back to business. The overall take away for this slate is the absence of all the Elephants, Tigers, and Sooners.

Every week this season, it’s been a necessary exercise to speculate on how invested you will need to be in the chalky offenses just to compete for the cash line. Simply put, certain stacks have the upside to supply DK points that most others do not. Chances are, if you miss out on those blow up weeks, no CFB DFS soup for you!

No Coach O and the Tigers, No Problem (Source: ABC News)

Not the case here for Week 10. If you’re like me, the foundation of Haskins at running back with Jalen Reagor and David Bell (both remain severely mispriced) in two wideout slots, already puts you above 7k remaining per player.

Going one running back further, about the only thing I got right from last week’s night slate was the upside Otis Anderson could have without Greg McCrae in the lineup. With the same scenario this week, now we’re really cooking at a hot $7,450 remaining per player.

Major Injury Factors

Now, the only decisions left are to choose between the different top-shelf vodkas that will be used in my four dirty CFB DFS martinis. With the latest news on Tylan Wallace and Rondale Moore, that selection process becomes a lot more simplified.

If you’re looking for my pivot in the OSU receiving game, I don’t have any strong opinion. That’s mostly because I do not think much of Spencer Sanders as a passer to begin with. Without Wallace around to even serve as a decoy for others, and a relatively difficult matchup, I’m certainly not altering my opinion on him this week.

Why bother trying to scratch your head with which Cowboy receiver will benefit the most anyway? I can make you one promise. None of them are capable of producing like Wallace was, no matter how much their role is increased.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

Based on last week and the discussion above regarding the Terrapin turtling defense, it’s not hard to guess where I’m going on this one. Both Max Duggan and Shea “September Heisman” Patterson have now proved multiple times that they can play in the 25-30 DK point range, when provided with the right conditions.

Oregon State quarterback Jake Luton #6 (Photo: Marcio Jose Sanchez, AP)

For game-flow risk purposes, I would opt for Duggan’s services first. Between those two and Oregon State’s Jake Luton, I do not see much of a reason to drop the extra grand or so for the top quarterbacks on the board.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

That extra cash is for the services of Isaiah Hodgins, and one Algiers Jameal William Dillon. As a little tease for the night slate, all I will say is that I am playing Tavien Feaster over Cam Akers in a season long league this week.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 10 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!

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