*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
QB
Mitchell Trubisky, $5100, Chicago Bears
1% projected ownership
Last year, Establish The Run’s, Adam Levitan, wrote an article breaking down Milly Maker winners over the years. One thing that has always stuck with me is that almost half of winners spend under $5900 at QB. Here we have Trubisky, coming off of injury in a good, not great matchup against the visiting Saints. The Saints are bottom 10 in DKPts allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Even after last weeks’ defensive battle with the Jaguars, Saints CB, Lattimore, still ranks bottom 4 in the league in yards allowed in coverage.
Jared Goff, $6200, Los Angeles Rams
6% projected ownership
The Rams come into the week with a slate-high 28.75 implied point total. The matchup for Goff doesn’t get any better. I mean, he scored 2.1 fantasy points last week and his price actually went UP! The Falcons give up the most DKPts to opposing QB (26.4 avg) and lead the league in passing TDs allowed (16). Expect the Rams O-line to give Goff time against a team ranked dead last in sack rate (3.11% Football Outsiders.)
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Daniel Jones, $6100, New York Giants
7% projected ownership
DD has failed to reach 15 fantasy points in a given week since bursting on the scene with a 39.2 explosion in Week 3. Over the course of the last couple weeks, he’s missed Shepard with injury, Tate coming off suspension and a slew of difficult matchups. Jones ranks 3rd in Deep Attack rate (Player Profiler), 5th in True Rating (measures QBR without pressured throwaways and drops). The Cardinals are bottom 3 in yards and TDs surrendered to quarterbacks (1776/16.) Barkley looks poised to make his return, but the Cards’ pass funnel defense has only allowed 2 rushing TDs this season (top 5 in the NFL).
Chalk QB:
Ryan
Also Consider:
Minshew II, Josh Allen
Fade:
Cousins
RB
Devin Singletary, $5400, Buffalo Bills
1% projected ownership
Singletary is expected to make his return Sunday, having put in a full practice on Wednesday. The rookie seemed likely to play last week but was put on the shelf for another week of recovery after missing 4 straight weeks. His return couldn’t happen at a better time, too. The Dolphins give up 35.7 DKPts to opposing RB (2nd worst). Singletary’s usage leaves him as a bit of a thin play, but there are more reasons to roster him. He ranks 1st in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA, 1st in Player Profiler’s Production Premium and 1st in breakaway run rate (30% of his rushes go for over 15 yards). I’m thinking we see a repeat of Tony Pollard smash week here.
Mark Ingram II, $6600, Baltimore Ravens
11% projected ownership
I am coming back to the well this week with Ingram. The Ravens rank first in rushing attempts (223), yards (1230) and yards/attempt (5.5). Ingram averages a league best 1.7 goal line rushes/game and trails only Kamara in evaded tackles (27.) The Ravens will face the Seahawks one week removed from allowed 20/122/2 line to the Browns’ Chubb.
Chalk RB:
Fournette (Bengals allow the most DKPts to opposing RB, the second most rushing yards AND tied for last in rushing TDs surrendered) Carson, DJ, Cook, Mack
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Also Consider:
Jacobs, Gore, Aaron Jones, Freeman
Fade:
Chargers RBs, Kamara, Mixon
WR
Brandin Cooks, $5400, Los Angeles Rams
10% projected ownership
Coming off 2 down weeks, Cooks appears to be in a bounce back spot against the Falcons’ generous pass defense. Lining up across from Cooks will be Isaiah Taylor. No defenseman surrenders more yards in the air (487) and completed passes (2nd worst with 31) than Taylor. Per Twitter sharp, @HilowFF, ATL is 4th worst in yards per reception with 11.9 and Cooks leads the team in aDOT with 13.8. Get him in your lineup.
Allen Robinson, $5500, Chicago Bears
9% projected ownership
Trubisky is back and we will see what kind of Marshon Lattimore shows up Sunday. If I’m punting with Trubisky, I want his top receiver. Robinson leads the team in receiving yards with 377 (Cohen is next on the list with 128).
Chalk WR:
Julio, John Brown, Hilton, Golladay
Also Consider:
Kupp, Beasley, Lazard ($3000 if everyone else is hurt), Ridley
Fade:
Keenan Allen
TE
T.J. Hockenson, $3600, Detroit Lions
1% projected ownership
Man, I really had to work to try to find someone low-owned, to write a little blurb about in this section. With so few good options at the position, it’s difficult to really differentiate your lineups here. Yet, here we are! The Vikings are bottom 5 in receptions and yards surrendered to the tight end position. They also give up an average of 14.5 points each week. If we can hit 15 here with Hockenson, that’s a win.
Chalk TE:
Hooper, Kittle, Engram, Henry
DST:
JAX, SF, BUF, LAC, CHI
Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!
