Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 6 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 6 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays. 

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KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 6 Games:

  • KC vs HOU
  • ATL vs ARI
  • LAR vs SF
  • CAR vs TB

Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 6 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 5 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have EASY defenses (Green), AVERAGE defense (Yellow), TOUGH Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough) 

For Example, read MIA as the Easiest Defense with an overall OFF DAP 100 (easiest), RB DAP at 88 (easy), QB DAP (100 easiest), WR DAP at 35 (tough), TE DAP (54 average), K DAP (48.8 average) and DEF DAP (Best for your DST team to play against. 

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combination Landscapes

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in week 6.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics? The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 6. The easy DAP niches are highlighted by yellow circles. Easy to Red *Green to Red


HIGH Shoot-Out Week 6 Games 

For example ARI vs ATL. Vegas picks ATL to win by 3 points. Vegas “says” the game is high scoring with plenty of TDs and yardage. The overall defenses are easy for both teams. That implies an offensive based game.

Key DAPs

  • ATL advantages at QB and TE (Ryan and Hooper)
  • ARI advantages at QB and WRs.
  • Both have to face tough RB DAPs FYI Suggests Passing based games. 

Go through all games to note the key areas to exploit in week 6! 

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Above Average Scoring Week 6 Games

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Below Average Scoring Week 6 Games

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Low Scoring Week 6 Games

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Bonus Analysis of DAP Metrics. 

I questioned whether there were correlations between the DAPs. The R Squared values gives that information.

The quick results were QB vs RB DAP were weakly correlated. Passing vs Rushing is dealt with differently by opponent defenses. 

QB vs WR were highly correlated confirming that defenses that can deal with QB will be good at defending against the WRs! 

Surprise result, I need to study this off-season but I want to highlight this! QB DAPs vs TE DAPs are weakly correlated. Thus teams can be tough of WRs/QBs but easy on TE and the reverse. You must tease out this aspect for deeper analysis. Tough Passing defenses may be weak in TE defense. Watch this!  

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Pass vs Rushing Team Balance

Using the first 5 weeks of data, I wanted to slip this metric in. I would memorize this! That allows a quicker roll through lineups and DFS plays. 

This table and graph note the PASS ATTempts vs RUSHING ATTempts vs RUSH/PASS Ratio (High more rushing – Low less rushing)

High Rushing Teams: SF/MIN/BAL/SEA/TEN/IND

High Passing Teams: ARI/LAC/LC/NYG/PIT/LAR/MIA/WAS/CIN/ATL

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Points Scored Per Game vs Scoring % Per Drive

This table and graph highlight the first 5 weeks of each team concerning their scoring capacity.  Again knowing these high and lows imparts “knowledge at the fingertips” for quick movement into the waiver wire and DFS stacks.

Points per game is a measure of offensive output and certainly lands you on teams to force into your lineups and DFS vs those teams to move away from on average. All metrics give a baseline that then you need to research for deeper understanding.

% Scoring per drive is a team efficiency metric. Teams can get a few opportunities but if they can score more on their drives that is positive and can point to positive new trends.

Note ATL vs ARI both at 20 points per game but surprisingly ARI is more efficient in scoring. Use to fine-tune your selections.

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Plots of the Points per Game vs Scoring Efficiency

The plot can visually highlight these important metrics for memorization!

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

 

Uncertainty Levels for Week 6 Teams 

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Mid, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, A and L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 6 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Teams are more uncertain this week! 

I annotated for week 6 the teams

  • low in uncertainty in green colorization KC/HOU/CIN/DEN/ATL/NO/CAR/DAL/TB
  • The opposite teams (red colorization) are DET/MIA/JAC/SF/ARI/BAL/TEN

Note that in the ARI vs ATL game, for example, ATL has low uncertainty while ARI has high uncertainty. Depending on your tolerance I might move to ATL players and away from ARI players that week. It depends in DFS plays on player price etc.


Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked player with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 

 

The table and graph display the week 6 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, more to low uncertainty teams.

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This graph presents a nice visual of all teams ranked for the level of uncertainty players.

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Fantasy Sports Professor (FSP-me) Team Rankings

The ranges of my FSP rankings are High 100 (purple) to Low 0 (yellow). I averaged my FSP players rankings by a team and I sorted that average from high to low

Top Teams are

  • CAR 69 FSP Average that is 18X above league average.
  • NE 68 17X above the league average.
  • KC 65 14X
  • LAR 65 14X

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Scaled Rankings compares each team’s average week 6 FSP vs the league. How much better is team 1 vs 2 this week? I would list all teams with an average scoring (above) and then these scaled ranked for comparison. Then I might combine the Vegas and DAP metrics for a benchmark to further analyze.

Yes, I want your to work for your results. I want you to see my process so you can get better.

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The next 3 figures focus on each position high to low by teams. 


Running Backs FSP Averages for Week 6

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Tight Ends FSP Averages for Week 6

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Wide Receivers FSP Averages for Week 6

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League Landscape Positional FSP Averages Week 6

I listed the Teams and their positions with week 6 FS averages. I noted the key rankings by a green block at the end of the line. I would just scan slowly and consider the implied results. Example Hooper in ATL strong play as we have previously discussed.

Process over results! You can have a great process but unlucky results this week. Using a poor process means you are relying upon only luck, not metrics-driven thinking! 

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Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 6 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (purple) to Low (Yellow). This report combines my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an AIO experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for players to see a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 6.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 6 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis. 

Overall, use these metrics for tie-breakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.


DST K and QBs

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Running Backs

For example

CMC is the top RB at LOW UNC in all scoring systems. Zeke and Kamara were 2 and 3rd but were considered both Average and Low UNC. David Johnson was 4th RB but High to Average UNC and Cook at 5 RB at Average and Low UNC. Thus Cook could be easily be moved up to 4th if you considered UNC as well.

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, team uses within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses.

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