Fantasy Football Rankings Week 5 All in One

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 5 All in One

I present Fantasy Football Rankings Week 5 All in One edition including looking at PPR/Half PPR/Non-PPR scoring environments.  I propose that one average ranking can be a good yardstick for players in any of the 3 leagues. Additionally, this report provides the raw material for my AIO rankings. My process uses the Vegas view to visualize the landscape of each game. (See below).

The concept is high scoring game should have more passing yards and catches along with touch-downs. High scoring game benefit pass-catching RBs, TE, and WRs. On the other hand, the low scoring game can be a rushing RB bonanza.

Remember to view last week’s games in terms of scoring and in DFS look for players going from one extreme to another this week. The public will be chasing points.


Vegas Landscapes for Week 5

We have 3 High scoring games so it will be a good week for passing and pass-catchers in those 3 games. I also have labeled the Games predicted to be above-average, below average and low-scoring games as well.

Use these labeled for seasonal lineups and DFS games. The interesting possibility is that deeper WRs etc have a better chance of doing well in these types of games. Caution for players in the lower scoring games. The above and below average can still have some nice spot players to use. 

This table has the supposed favorite and their predicted score vs underdog teams and scores expected. The “Shoot-Out” column gives the suspected level of scoring. High scoring favors more fantasy point production. 

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Vegas Metrics Takeaways

I would lean to forcing players from KC vs IND, HOU vs ATL, SEA vs LAR. Especially the favorite teams in those games. Deeper players have more value than usual.

Caution from CAR vs JAX, TEN vs BUF, and CHI vs OAK games especially the lesser known players. 


2019 Based Defense Against the Position (DAPs)

The second data platform for my lineups and DFS plays are shown below. These are the project DAPs each team will face in the week 5 games.  Extremes are always of strategic value. Locating easy defenses to scoring on is a good thing!

Updated DAPs- I have moved my DAP data into the 2019 season using the last 4 weeks of defensive data from all teams.  DAPs are best used on landscapes of team vs team using Vegas scenarios. Also, DAPs break ties in seasonal lineups and help in DFS decisions.

The DAPs are shown below in the table that includes:

  • Opponent TEAM
  • Overall TEAM DAPs (Top-Down view Easy to Tough)
  • RB DAPs (Rushing Defense Assessment and RB usages)
  • QB, WR, and TE DAPs (Passing Defense Assessment)
  • K and DEF DAPs (Special Teams)
  • KEYs PHI/WAS/BAL/CIN/ARI/OAK are predicted as easy to score on teams! Focus on teams playing them! 
  • Easy QB Teams: PHI/TB/NO/ARI/WAS/OAK
  • RB Weak Defensive Teams: CIN/GB/DEN/BAL
  • Easy TE Teams: ARI/PHI/NYJ/HOU
  • Easy WR Teams: WAS/PHI/NYJ/HOU

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DAP Takeaways

PHI, WAS, BAL, CIN, ARI, and OAK (Green) are easy defense teams that invite high scoring on.

CAR, NE, SF, BUF, TEN, GB, and CHI (RED) are the toughest teams in defense. Hard to collect points from these teams.

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Vegas vs DAPs Landscape Views of Week 5 Games

I use to visualize the game scripts to focus on passing vs rushing levels in each game. What players benefit from? Who should have a harder time?

The concept of chasing the points is because some players fail to determine this week is a new week with different variables.  These metrics can help you break that spiral of chasing. The game dice have rolled a different number and new things are expected out of players.

Use these Vegas and DAP in combination to “see” the new predicted game scripts. 


HIGH SHOOT_OUT

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Example Game HOU vs ATL.

Example game HOU vs ATL. 

This is a higher scoring game of week 5 (good). I plan to use significant players from both teams in seasonal and DFS lineups. However, ATL does have a slightly tough defense so not sold on the lesser HOU players. ATL has the opposite environment and maybe Ridley gets a “get-well” game. 

Analysis of the DAPs implies ATL gets an easy WR passing DAPs. Again favors all WRs to their usages (see SNAPs/Target reports coming). Tougher RB DAPs and very tough TE DAP (Hooper will earn his points-Looking elsewhere in DFS)

HOU gets a tough RB environment but easy WR DAP. Expect HOU to pass all day in this game. Hence Vegas calls in a Shoot-Out. Note the tough TE DAP. (Adkins is not a DFS play this week.)

These data read very easy and just make quick notes for use in lineups this week.


ABOVE-AVERAGE SCORING

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BELOW-AVERAGE SCORING

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 LOW SCORING GAMES

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Uncertainty (UNC) Week 5 Team Level

In decisions under uncertainty, the player needs to know where chaos exists within the metrics.  Like a minefield, it best to know where the danger is. You may not know the unknown unknowns but you can be cautious and turn a Black Swan to Grey!.

These uncertainty metrics signal danger for all to consider. The table includes:

  • Teams – High UNC Teams – Red vs Low UNC Teams – Green
  • High, Avg and Low UNC Player Counts
  • Total Players 
  • % High, AVG, and Low players
  • H/L Metric Ratio (lower number implies the team has fewer UNC players)

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High and Low UNC Teams Week 5

WEEK 5 Low UNC Teams are KC/HOU/CAR/BAL/LAR/ATL/MIN. This does not mean victory it points out the “trust” of these team’s rankings. Its does not mean these are highly ranked, for example, MIA players. They are fairly low ranked but should be who the ranking says. These team names are highlighted below in green colorization.

On the other hand, the High UNC teams of SF/IND/TEN/OAK/BUF/NYJ/CIN/JAC will be those teams that player rankings can be “soft” and not as true. Caution in here does not mean don’t play it as is a guide for your deeper thoughts. These team names are highlighted below in red colorization.


Visual Plot of UNC Landscape Week 5

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Overall Team Rankings Week 5

I averaged all the team’s players’ All in One (AIO) rankings and determined the team’s grand averages. Default in DFS etc to playing toward the top teams this week (KC, LAR, ATL, HOU, DAL, and PHI).

Move away for the lower-ranked teams in week 5 (MIN, CLE,  NYJ, and WAS). Let’s see what MIN does this week! 

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Fantasy Sports Professor’s Rankings AIO

Week 5 Positional Level

QB, K, and DST are the same regardless of the league scoring type. Highs to lows are colorized to highlight the extremes. The tables include

  • Team
  • Pos
  • Player
  • Player AIO Rankings under either High, Average, and Low Average.
  • Average of all the League AIO Rankings

Note if a player has multiple rankings under different UNC level, I placed both on the table. 


Defense and Special Teams

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Kickers

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs AIO Rankings

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Tight Ends AIO Rankings

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Wide Receivers AIO Rankings

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Fantasy Sports Professor’s Rankings AIO

Week 5 TEAM Level

My Average AIO Rankings (PPR. HALF PPR and Non-PPR) guide your decisions and not chiseled in stone! Use them in that light.

I take my opinions and set them on a scale of 100 (best) to 0 (lowest). I colorized these metrics to catch your attention of the extreme players (highs or lows). The average player should hit near the 50 levels.

It is too easy to take a list with numbers and names and go from there. Thus, I go into the team context as well.

You must “see” all players within the system they are in. Use the team’s AIO rankings with the Vegas and DAPs for the full experience.


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Fantasy Football Rankings Week 5 All in One

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