Week 4 Milly Maker Plays
Sunday’s Main Slate will feature 5 teams as 7 point favorites. The biggest favorite on the slate is LAC over MIA at 16.5. Both teams in the WAS/NYG game have been bet up 1 implied point. Saquon Barkley has been ruled out with a high ankle sprain so Gallman will start in his place at $4600. Injuries in the KC backfield could open up value as they’re projected to score 30 points against DET on the road. Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Matt Ryan, $5900, Atlanta Falcons
3% projected ownership
Ryan has been as reliable as you could ask for at the QB position. He has thrown for over 300 yards and topped 2 TDs since Week 1. Ryan’s sub $6000 price tag makes him especially interesting, given his reliability. The Titans are perceived as a tough matchup on paper, ranking top 10 in passing yards and passing TDs allowed to opposing QBs. However, through 3 weeks, TEN has faced middling talents such as Mayfield, Brissett and Minshew (not exactly murderers row for QB talent). I’m willing to overweight the field on Ryan with this game being played in the dome and his cheap price tag.
Russell Wilson, $6100, Seattle Seahawks
8% projected ownership
In Week 3, Russell Wilson cleared 300/2 for the second week in a row while on his way to lead all QBs with a massive 44.3 DK points. This week, Russ and the ‘Hawks will hit the road to face the Cardinals in the desert. Arizona ranks bottom 3 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards (to the QB) and overall DK points allowed to the position. In the last 2 weeks, the Seahawks are running more plays than any team in the league (even ARI). With uncertainty in the Seattle backfield plus the Cardinals uptempo offense, it’s becoming clear where to find the fantasy points in this one.
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Mahomes, Daniel Jones
Stafford, Watson, Keenum (sorry), Goff, Rivers
Mark Ingram, $6600, Baltimore Ravens
5% projected ownership
Ingram now has 2 games with over 100 yd/2 TD on the books for the season. The matchup against CLE is unintimidating. According to PFR, the Browns are bottom 10 in rushing yds and rushing TDs allowed to opposing RB. Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line Power Success metric lists BAL with the highest success rate for 3rd/4th down runs under 2 yards. His minimal involvement in the pass game coupled with the public’s worry of chasing points will lower Ingram’s ownership for Sunday.
Dalvin Cook, $8300, Minnesota Vikings
8% projected ownership
Cook has been deployed as the Vikings’ centerpiece. His ability to grind for yards and scores has helped hide Cousins’ propensity to turn over the ball. Cook is yet to be held under 100yd/TD in any game thus far. There’s no need to quit going to the well in this spot against a stingy CHI front 7. Something must break here and I’m willing to take a chance on a player who has been piling up the yards all year. According to Player Profiler, Cook has accounted for a whopping 41% of his teams offensive production (good for 3rd.) No RB has averaged more rushing yards/gm this season (125 yd/avg.)
Henry, Chubb, Michel, Darrell Williams, K. Johnson, Justin Jackson
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Gallman, David Johnson, Gurley
Mike Williams, $4800, Los Angeles Chargers
4% projected ownership
Mike Williams has slowly been integrated more into the Chargers offense, having more targets in successive weeks. He’s a cheap piece of the Chargers offense with low ownership. He has flashed multi-TD upside in the past. According to Football Outsiders, Williams is 2nd in WR DVOA this week, only behind Tyler Lockett. Pivot to Williams to leverage Keenan Allen’s massive 25% projected ownership.
Tyler Lockett, $6300, Seattle Seahawks
8% projected ownership
With Russell Wilson slinging the ball around the yard the last 2 weeks, Lockett has had insane usage. Mainly working out of the slot (83% of snaps), Lockett has commanded a 25% MS of targets while leading the team in receiving yards. ARI ranks 4th worst against opposing WR (220 PPR points allowed.) It gets better. ARI has given up over 100 more PPR to opposing slot receivers than any other WR position. Lockett is ranked 1st in WR DVOA on this slate.
Sterling Shepard, $5800, New York Giants
6% projected ownership
I fully expect Shepards’ ownership to increase as the buzz around “Danny Dimes” floods DFS sites entering the weekend. The total on this game has already been bet up 2 points since the opening line. Both teams are ranked bottom 5 in DK FPTs allowed to opposing QBs. In his first game under center, Daniel Jones had serious confidence in Shepard. Shepard led the team in Airyards (110), targets (9) and receptions (7) in his first game with Jones. Shepard has played an average of 97% of offensive snaps when healthy. He currently has no injury designation.
Allen, McLaurin, Golladay
Julio Jones, Watkins, Hilton(currently Questionable), Paul Richardson
Will Dissly, $3600, Seattle Seahawks
Another piece in the Seahawks offense, go figure. Everything that I mentioned about the Cardinals’ pace of play applies to Dissly as well. He’s reliant on another big game from Russ but with his salary and usage I’m buying (3 TDs in 2 weeks). Again, ARI struggles over the middle having given up huge production to TE in 3 straight weeks. He’s priced under Henry (IR), Howard, and Doyle.
LAC, SEA, TEN, CLE (my favorite cheap defense)
I will be discussing a lot of these players on the “Last Call” pod which can be found at Fakepigskin.
Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!