Week 1 Results:
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For me (Aaron), week 1 ended up exactly how I thought it would be going into Sunday. I got nervous about by Cleveland pick and didn’t bet it myself, although I didn’t think they would get blown out by Tennessee. The Panthers kept it closer than I thought, but the Rams pulled out the cover by a point. And the Chiefs didn’t skip a beat from last year routing the Jags by two TD’s in the process.
For Kyle, well, I hope he wasn’t planning to put up a goose egg. I’ll be keeping an eye on him to make sure he’s not betting against all of his picks… can’t have any Vegas collusion going on here! All jokes aside, Kyle had two winners lined up before the article, but changed his picks last minute. That’s a lesson to all of you out there – go with your gut and don’t change it last second! Let’s see what this week holds for us (and you).
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 @ Houston Texans
Apparently, the match-up of the Chiefs vs. Jags in week 1 was cursed. Tyreek Hill goes down for 6-8 weeks and Nick Foles does the same. Foles was expected to be the quarterback that was promised in Jacksonville, while Hill is the top receiver on one of the top teams in the league. Fortunately for both teams, they seem to have solid replacements.
Cue Gardner Minshew and his mustache. Per PFF, Minshew finished the 2018 season ranked 7th in the nation in passing grade (89.1) and 1st in adjusted completion percentage (80.7%) among draft-eligible quarterbacks. He also only had 12 turnover-worthy plays across 700+ dropbacks. Those are true game-manager numbers. Not referencing that as a joke, but more as an Alex Smith type player who has been very successful in the NFL.
The Chiefs defense is swiss cheese, but Houston has lost a lot in their secondary. He went 22-25 against the Chiefs and the Jags showed they actually do have some talent at the WR position. I don’t think the Jags pull off the win, but they keep this game close.
Pick: Jaguars +9
Arizona Cardinals +13 @ Baltimore Ravens
Back to back road dogs this week after back to back road favorites. For some reason I’m staying away from home teams to start the 2019-2020 season, but it’s worked well so far. Arizona looks pretty bad to start the game last week, but Murray and the Cards posted a spectacular comeback to leave with a tie. There were a lot of mixed feelings about the Lions, but I think week 1 confirmed that they will be quite the contender this year.
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The Ravens on the other hand looked unstoppable last week. I hope that the public understands how bad Miami is. I have tons of Lamar Jackson share in fantasy (as well as Mark Ingram), so I’m a believe of this offense. However, I don’t think he’s going to be Patrick Mahomes the 4th this year! This offense is solid all around, but I think they are more run-first and would like to control the game, rather than dominate it through the air.
Another thing to look at here is the total. It opened as low as 38-41 on some sites, but has been bet up to 46.5! The public thinks this game will turn into a shootout. Vegas knows this is supposed to be low scoring due to Baltimore’s run-first attack and their stout defense. I think this game stays at a reasonable pace (unfortunately) and the Ravens win by 6-10 points. 13 is just too much for the week 1 comeback kid.
Pick: Cardinals +13
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I started out this article with the Browns in mind, but -6.5 is a little rich for my blood. Even with Sam Darnold being declared out. We will just call that my unofficial 4th pick. The Steelers pick is all about redemption. The Steelers performance on Sunday night last week was not the 2019 Steelers. This isn’t what the offense looks like without AB. This is what happens when you play the best franchise in sports, in the 1st week of the season, who you can never ever compete with. It may be harsh, but the Steelers have never been able to handle the Pats.
The Seahawks aren’t chumps by any means, but Ben Roethlisberger is significantly better at home. Donte Moncrief cannot drop 5-6 passes again like he did last week. James Washington and Vance McDonald should be featured more. I’d love to see this go to 3.5 or 3, because I like the Seahawks a lot this year… but I think they are still figuring their identity out on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick: Steelers -4
Detroit Lions +2.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
This may think this pick makes absolutely no sense, and you’re probably right, but keep reading to see where I end up this week. Both of these teams come into this game after playing overtime but Detroit gets the benefit of coming home to familiar surroundings. I do worry about Matt Patricia doing Matt Patricia things, but I’m still going to proceed.
The Chargers remained banged up on both sides of the ball. Hunter Henry will now miss time with a fractured kneecap and Mike Williams is dealing with a sore knee and his status for Sunday is up in the air.
The line however screams take the Lions as many will see the line at less than 3 points and wonder how much they can put on the Chargers. Currently 81% of the tickets but only 61% of the money are on Los Angeles signaling smart money is on Philip Rivers and company.
I feel like everyone will be scratching their heads wondering what is wrong with this team come Sunday night.
Arizona Cardinals +13 at Baltimore Ravens
See! I told you I could do better. That Lions pick isn’t looking so bad, now is it! Seriously though, I know the Ravens looked like world beaters against a Dolphins team that is checked out but Baltimore still has a ton to prove. They should not be favored but basically two touchdowns against anyone.
Kyler Murray looked like a rookie on Sunday until the 4th quarter. I think the Lions defense is actually pretty decent and that will bear out over the next few weeks. I expect this game to have some back and forth early. Maybe Baltimore take control in the second half but a double-digit blowout again this week seems far fetched. I’m holding my nose and taking the road team plus the points. If you’re patient you may be able to get a full 14 come Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs Seattle Seahawks
The Pittsburgh Steelers could not have looked worse on Sunday night against the New England Patriots. Their offense couldn’t gain any traction while their defense looked like swiss cheese against Tom Brady and company.
I expect the Steelers to remind everyone how their offense can look like when it gets rolling. I expect a monster performance from James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster and company in this spot.
As for the ticket data? The Seahawks are getting only 41% of the money despite getting 60% of the tickets. Back the Steelers who should cover the number and then some.
Make sure to check out Fakepigskin.com each week for a fresh 6-pack of picks and to see how we did the week before!