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Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty.

Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 2 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty.

Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 2 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labels.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays. 

 The key high shoot-out games in Week 2 are CAR at TB, NO at LAR, KC at OAK and finally PHI at ATL.  Note the Thursday game is thought to be a high shoot-out. My confidence is not strong for this outcome. Be cautious on Thursday games.

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 2 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis.

First I present a simple overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have EASY BOTH (Green), EASY PASS (Orange), Easy RUN (Blue), Balanced (Yellow), and finally TOUGH BOTH (Red). 

For Example in Game 1 BAL vs ARI, BAL faces an Easy Run Defense (Good for Ingram). ARI has to face a tough BAL defense on both rushing and passing. Note the Vegas data  (above) suggests BAL scores 4 TD or so vs ARI  maybe 1 TDs. Continue this process to look for advantages for player lineups in redraft or DFS. 

The second view gives you the actual DAP metrics (negative DAPs are tough vs positive DAPs are easy ) Thus, in the BAL vs ARI, BAL gets a great RB DAP +5.9 and the WRs are average at -0.3. ARI gets a tough Run DAP of -6 and tough passing WR DAP of -4.8. 

Interesting games from a DAP viewpoint are CIN vs SF and KC vs OAK. Consider sneaky stacks and plays from these games.

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

 

Uncertainty Levels for Week 2 Team and Players

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Mid, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated leading to my radiometric of Low vs High and Mid uncertainty players. The High L vs HM metric implies a team with players of lower uncertainty whereas the lower metrics implies high uncertainty exists. 

I annotated for week 2 the teams low in uncertainty in green colorization. TB/NYJ/KC/PHI/NYG/CAR/MIA/CLE. The opposite teams (red colorization) are CIN/OAK/TEN/LAC/MIN/BAL/JAC/BUF/LAR/IND. 

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked player with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 

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This graph presents a nice visual of all teams ranked for the level of uncertainty players.

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Player Uncertainty Levels

Use these metrics for tie-breakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

DST K and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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AIO Rankings Team Levels

As I have preached players must use landscape metrics to fine-tune their decisions. I do that with uncertainty and now use my All in One Rankings (AIO). All player are rated on a scale of 100 (best) to 0 (worst) in the PPR, HALF PPR, and NON-PPR worlds. I average these and get AIO numbers. All players of each team are then averaged from their AIOs.

Blue colorized teams are the team with a higher-ranked slate of players. NE>KC>DAL>HOU etc. These can be a focus for DFS lineups etc. Force your sneaky players from the higher-ranked Teams.

Red colorized teams are the weaker teams for week 2. WAS>MIA>JAC>DEN etc. Move away for marginal players from these teams in DFS etc.


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Graphical Plot of the Team Average AIOs

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AIO Rankings

In general, the 50% level is the lowest level I would consider to use in lineups. I would use to scan your team and sub out weaker players in context of Uncertainty and Vegas info. Week 2 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty is a great way for a disciplined approach to increasing your chances of a victory. 

Process- Vegas Info (high scoring games focus), DAPs data, Uncertainty (lower uncertainty teams), AIO rankings (looking for 50% or higher players). Hey this is too much work- I want the fire then I will chop the wood. Hum? Stick to the Process!


DST

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Kickers

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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