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Week 1 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

For those new to the article, my focus is on the right combination of chalk and flyer picks in the hopes of taking down a large field tournament. I will be recommending players that literally no one in the fantasy community has interest in so please be understanding when I’m recommending sub 1% owned plays. I will be discussing a lot of these players on the “Last Call” pod which can be found each week under the Fakepigskin station. Again, I’m super grateful to have a place to write this thing and humbled by the support. Thanks for reading… now let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DraftKings main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: 1% owned

Dak is unfazed by his contract situation in the midst of Zeke’s blockbuster re-signing. The Cowboys who have a healthy 26 implied point total, are playing at home in AT&T Stadium and are a touchdown favorite against the Giants. I really like Dak’s expected low ownership and his $5900 price tag. With Zeke reportedly playing around 20-25 snaps, I expect Dak to have time in the pocket against the Giants who ranked bottom 3 in sacks last year. There’s more reasons I like about this game, in a bit.

Jimmy Garoppolo: 5% owned

This Sunday, Jimmy G makes his return from a knee injury that sidelined him for the 2018 season.  The injury and the uncertainty surrounding his supporting cast will keep his ownership low. Not helping his cause is the fact that he tossed 5 interceptions in practice and Rotoworld was nice enough to write a blurb about it for all to see. This matchup currently has the second highest O/U on the week. Both sides of the ball sport a high rated Pass DVOA (poor against the pass). Jimmy G ranks second on the slate in PlayerProfiler’s “Deep Ball Attempts Rank”, a metric measuring percentage of balls traveling 20 yards+ in the air. He’s attempting these deep passes at a 45% clip. 

Chalk QB:

  • Jameis Winston
  • Carson Wentz

Also Consider: 

  • Nick Foles
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Josh Allen
  • Cam Newton
  • Russell Wilson

Fade:

  • Baker Mayfield
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: 30% owned

Sometimes you just have to eat the chalk. This is one of those times. In 2018 McCaffrey ranked 1st in Market Share of Targets (22%), receptions (6.8 avg/gm), receiving yards (54.2/game), RecYAC (52.8 avg), and snaps (92% avg/game). The LAR/CAR game currently has the 3rd highest implied game total. He’s a core play for me and will most likely be in every lineup I make for Sunday. 

Matt Breida: 7% owned

So from what I hear on Twitter, an intern mistakenly anointed Breida as the starter in SF. It’s not shocking to be honest. Breida was very effective as the team’s leading rusher with a solid per carry average over 5. I want as much as exposure as I can get to this game, especially with a starting RB with a solid matchup for just $4000. PFF has TB’s rush defense ranked dead last.

Even More…Chalk RB:

  • Dalvin Cook
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Austin Ekeler

Fade:

  • Leonard Fournette
  • David Johnson
  • Todd Gurley
  • Nick Chubb

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: 16% owned

Thielen and the Vikings take on the Falcons at home on Sunday. In the 2018 regular season, Thielen averaged 33% of his teams MS/airyards, 25% MS/targets, while averaging almost 10 targets per game. As Thielen mans the slot Sunday, expect him to see a lot of Isaiah Oliver (Rotogrinders 5th best WR/CB matchup.)

Dante Pettis: 12% owned

Are you sensing a theme here? After playing deep into meaningless preseason games and a bunch of coach-speak, Pettis was finally placed atop the 49ers depth chart. Remember the bit about Jimmy G’s deep ball attempts? In Weeks 12-16 (when Pettis returned from injury), Pettis sported an aDOT of 13.1 from left flanker. His WR/CB matchup with Carlton Davis grants him the 3rd best matchup according to PFF (22% advantage.)

Cole Beasley: 3% owned

On a PPR site like DraftKings, Beasley should be able to rack up a few quick hit passes against the Jets. With solid safety coverage, the Bills will be forced to use quick slants to move the chains. Beasley seemed to be a safety valve for second year QB Allen in the preseason. PFF’s Points Allowed chart shows that Beasley and Godwin have the best matchups out of the slot this week. For $3600 you can do worse.

Chalk WR:

  • Chris Godwin
  • Tyler Boyd
  • Curtis Samuel

Also Consider:

  • D.J. Moore
  • Tyler Lockett
  • Mike Evans

Tight Ends

Blake Jarwin: .01% owned

With the return of “dad-runner” Jason Witten, expectations for the breakout Jarwin have been tempered. We know that Witten will be used primarily as a blocker and split time with Jarwin. Zeke is expected to be eased back into the offense after holding out in the offseason. Jarwin is ranked 3rd in TE DVOA, 2nd in Catchable Target Rate (94%), 2nd in TarSep (2.42 yards), and 2nd in Weekly Volatility. The Giants have the worst DL sack rate, while the Cowboys have the best OL sack rate.  I expect Jarwin to pick up where he left off last season when he broke out for 7/119/3 in this exact situation. He’s my TE1. Come at me.

Other TEs you can start in the Flex because Jarwin is in your TE slot:

  • Zach Ertz
  • Evan Engram

Defense:

  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Cleveland Browns

Special thanks to Will Schmidt for the awesome logo! For more info, please check out Will on instagram @willschmidt.design and online at www.willschmidtdesign.com.

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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