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Super Bowl 54 – predictions, picks, and sleepers to win it all

Tom Brady and Andrew Luck

Super Bowl 54 – MisterMarkot‘s predictions, picks, and sleepers to win it all. Where should you put your money? Which teams could surprise and what juggernauts will disappoint?

The NFL season returns in less than two months which means the team here at FakePigskin is back to help you win some money to support your fantasy football, DFS, and/or gambling habit(s). Over the past few years, I’ve gotten into betting futures before the season just in case my fantasy teams or weekly spread picks don’t work out. Last year, I had the Chiefs vs. Rams in the Super Bowl at 55/1 odds. It didn’t quite pan out, but it made the playoffs even more exciting! I’m going to cover my favorite “favorite” for the Super Bowl and give you a couple of sleepers to consider.

Odds taken from https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/ on 7/30/19

Markot’s Money Maker:

Indianapolis Colts +1400 – the only Luck Indy needs to win the Super Bowl is Andrew himself. Before going into my reasoning for the Colts, I want to touch on a couple of the other favorites.

  • The Patriots are the handicappers’ favorite at +700, followed closely by the Chiefs at +800. It’s hard to believe (and write) but the Patriots days of dominance are coming to an end. Sure, they still have the best coach in the game, with an unbelievably talented 42-year-old QB, but there’s no chance I’m taking this team to win Super Bowl 54 all with these odds.
  • The Chiefs are likely the most talented team we’ve seen in a while – especially on the offensive side of the ball. But this team has had a large amount of drama this offseason which could lead to troubles in the pre-season and/or regular season. I want to see the defense improve before trusting that side of the ball to help them win a championship.
  • The Saints at +900 are a solid pick. Brees’ time is running out and I think he wants another ring badly. The Saints have been transforming into a run-first, defensive team over the past few years and I think that suits the playoffs well right now. I will likely throw a little on New Orleans, but I don’t love the value enough to make them my pick.
  • The Rams at +1000 is a pick that I’m staying away from. Super Bowl losers have a tendency to falter the year after and the uncertainty around Gurley makes me a little nervous. Sure, C.J. Anderson carried the team on his back in the playoffs, but he was also fresh from not playing all year.

This brings us back to the Colts – tied for 5th most likely to win the SB with the Eagles. Andrew Luck has been healthy for two straight years. Marlon Mack broke out in a big way last year. They signed Devin Funchess over the offseason to bolster Luck’s arsenal. In 2018, they had the 10th and 11th best defense in terms of pts/gm and yds/gm, respectively. Luck was finally protected in the pocket and produced his best statistical season of his career – across the board.

The Colts have a strong division this year with a couple of teams who are looking to bounce back in a big way (Tennessee and Jacksonville), along with a strong Houston team. This divisional schedule should prepare Indy properly to make a playoff run. Bonus bet: Luck for MVP (odds not released yet).

My other favorite Super Bowl 54 bets in this range: Chargers +1600, Bears +1700, and Packers +1900.

Sleepers:

In this section, I want to cover a couple deep sleepers for a Super Bowl 54 run. I would highly suggest betting these teams to exceed their win total for the year and proceed with caution on betting them to win the Super Bowl. These are teams I like to put $2-$4 on to win it all and take a nice little surprising payday at the end of the season if the stars align.

Seattle Seahawks +3000

A team with this sort of pedigree to win 30x your money? I’ll take this every year until Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are gone. Seattle only lost 6 games last year: Denver, Chicago, LAR (x2), LAC, and SF. That’s a quality group in my opinion – especially considering how well the Niners did down the stretch last year. They easily lead the league in rushing last year and their 1st round pick barely contributed.

Seattle’s defense should bounce back with a vengeance this year. They drafted L.J. Collier (DE) 29th overall, Marquise Blair (S) in the 2nd round, and D.K. Metcalf at the end of the 2nd round. Bringing in some young, athletic talent on the defensive side of the ball in combination with the veterans like Wright, Wagner, Shead, Kendricks, Ansah… this side of the ball is scary again.

Houston Texans +3600

An 11-5 team more than half way down the SB favorites list? Houston’s O-line needs to improve for this team to make it all the way – there’s no doubt about it. DeShaun Watson is coming into his 3rd year in the league (which seems hard to believe… feels like 5 at least), but this is a guy who took the league by storm in 2017 just like Patty Mahomes did last year. His passer rating went from 103 to 103.1 in his second year – Luck has never managed a 100+ passer rating season. Watson is a great two-tool QB who has 3 amazing weapons at his disposal in Hopkins, Fuller, and Coutee. The defense returns almost everybody outside of Kareem Jackson. If Roby can play all over the field like the defense will ask him to it could be an upgrade.

Other teams to exceed their win totals: Bears (9) and Chargers (10)

Other teams to fade in their win totals: Browns (9) – everybody loves the new Browns… I’m excited but not buying yet), Jets (7.5) – just because of Le’Veon?!?), and Falcons (8.5) – new OC, Ryan/Julio another year older, and no more Coleman)

For more picks, check out Kyle Robert and Brian Twining’s picks for Super Bowl 54!

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