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Fantasy Football is a Weekly Game

Vikings Kirk Cousins

Why do we always use year end totals when we discuss Fantasy Football statistics?

The format in most Fantasy games provides us a weekly winner and loser based on a snap shot of one week’s worth of statistics. Even Best Ball formats use a weekly number to decide which players score for your team on any given week, yet when we compare Player A to Player Z we always talk about year end statistics. Today I will introduce you to two new concepts and let you discover why you will hear me say, “Fantasy Football is a weekly game” on a daily basis.

It is How You Accumulate Points that Matters

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins finished as the 9th place QB in 2018 starting all 16 games. Yet Cousins only had 6 games all season where he scored 20 or more points in a standard format league. He then had 2 games under 10 points which will obliterate your chances of winning your weekly match up. But we still go into the 2019 season bragging that Cousins finished 9th in points which makes him a solid starter for the new season. It is how you accumulate points that matter.

Introducing the Best Ten Rating

Raise your hand if you have been let down by weekly projections. There are so many moving parts in a football game that even a great forecaster can miss a forecast badly. That does not mean we should ignore all weekly projections. It just means we have to understand a player’s weekly potential too. The Best Ten Rating is based on past performances and a handicapping tool just like past performances in the horse racing form. It gives us a snap shot of a player’s potential to have a big week while also scoring acceptable point totals on a weekly basis. Since only 2 years worth of data is used in most circumstances, it also shows the recent form that a player should be able to maintain. Fudge factors are used for last year’s rookies and injured players to better understand their potential ceiling for the upcoming season.

Best Ten by the Numbers

When I examined why some of my Fantasy Football teams failed a constant problem was how players accumulated their year end statistics. One day while discussing roster building and management with a friend I exclaimed, “Give me 10-12 great games from my guys and I will win championships more often! I don’t care if they end up outside the Top 20.” A new concept of “Weekly Value” was born and several different tools were researched. If you calculate the “Best Ten” scores for a Fantasy Football player over the past 2 seasons that number shows the big week and consistent big week potential for that player. Combine this number with a consistency factor and you have two great tools to determine a player’s weekly value to your Fantasy Football team! Add a factor for first year or injured players based on the same percentage of games scored to games played (1/3rd) and you get a realistic look at the upside potential for second year players. While yearly totals can fluctuate wildly depending on a player’s health their Best Ten rating is less volatile and is a better indication of their weekly value.

Kirk Cousins Revisited

If you compare the yearly point totals for Cousins to his Big Ten Rating you get a true value of the player. Since Big Ten Ratings are also based on two years worth of data they eliminate the impact of a year in which a player dealt with tougher defenses for injuries to his key teammates. Last year Cousins averaged 26 points per game in his best six starts but only 10 points per game in his worst ten starts. His Big Ten Rating of 271 for the last 2 seasons puts him at 14th place among all starting quarterbacks and gives a more accurate representation of what you can expect from him on a weekly basis. It also shows he still has value when you compare that ranking to his average draft position of 20th.

Conclusion

When you go shopping for tools to fix things around the house you have a choice between good tools, average tools, and great tools. Similarly in Fantasy Football you get to pick the tools you want in your Fantasy Tool Belt. You are off to a great start by visiting Fake Pigskin because we have some of the brightest analysts in the business. Adding my weekly Big Ten Rating tool to the mix will give you another way to look at how players accumulate statistics. Load up your team with high value Big Ten Rating guys and you are more likely to win your league because as you will hear from me all the time, “Fantasy Football is a weekly game.”

About Dennis Michelsen

Dennis has worked as a professional weather forecaster and a professional horse racing handicapper and has spent over 25 years using those analysis skills for Fantasy Football. When he is not playing with football or baseball statistics he is a play by play announcer for Ultimate Frisbee and a NASCAR analyst for 105.7FM The Fan and Frontstretch.com. Fantasy Football is a weekly game which is why Dennis has developed several weekly potential tools. Find him on Twitter @DMICmedia

Favorite NFL Team: Kansas City Chiefs even through the Mike Livingston years

Favorite MLB Team” Chicago Cubs even through the Paul Reuschel years

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