PGA DFS Charles Schwab Challenge Preview

If you need PGA DFS to help you manage withdrawal, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Charles Schwab Challenge (CSC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Colonial Country Club  Fort Worth, TX  Par 70  Yardage 7,200

Corporate sponsors may change, but the scenery does not. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas has been an annual tour stop since its inaugural event in 1946.

Now, with this year’s schedule change going into effect, it becomes the season’s second major championship hangover for the foreseeable future. This week it draws five of the top 10 ranked players in the world, including defending champ, Justin Rose.

His winning score of 20 under par was one shot off the tournament record, set by Zach Johnson in 2010. Over the last 10 years, the winning score has averaged right around 15 under, so making birdies will be a must to contend.

Here are the past five winners and their scores:

Year	Player	TO PAR
2018	Justin Rose	-20
2017	Kevin Kisner	-10
2016	Jordan Spieth	-17
2015	Chris Kirk	-12
2014	Adam Scott	-9

 

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Driving Accuracy (DA)
2. Greens/Fringes hit in regulation (GIR/FIR)

The first imperative to even attempting makeable birdies will be hitting fairways. Colonial is littered with oak and walnut trees all over the place.

Players with one too many errant tee shots will shoot themselves out of weekend play. And, out of your beautifully crafted DFS lineups.

No one needs that, so an emphasis on accuracy off the tee should be targeted this week. After hitting fairways, you guessed it, hitting greens will be very key to setting up convertible birdie attempts…

In general, accuracy > power is the theme for the week. To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	DA	DA Percentage	GIR/FIR	GIR/FIR Percentage	Composite Rank
Paul Casey	9300	13	69.83	10	73.89	11.5
Scott Piercy	8600	17	69.28	20	72.6	18.5
Corey Conners	7200	44	66.32	3	77.1	23.5
Nate Lashley	6400	28	67.59	19	72.89	23.5
Kevin Streelman	6900	24	68.47	30	72.1	27
Jim Furyk	7300	1	75.35	59	69.92	30
Brendan Steele	6500	40	66.72	26	72.22	33
Ian Poulter	9100	32	67.35	37	71.58	34.5
Kramer Hickok	7000	14	69.8	56	70.12	35
Chez Reavie	8300	2	74.17	82	69.3	42
Kevin Kisner	9200	29	67.47	58	69.97	43.5
Andrew Landry	6600	10	70.39	78	69.37	44
Russell Knox	7400	64	65.04	25	72.32	44.5
Josh Teater	6300	65	64.99	26	72.22	45.5
Bryson DeChambeau	9400	37	66.93	54	70.14	45.5
Emiliano Grillo	8700	39	66.8	53	70.15	46
Sungjae Im	7700	61	65.28	35	71.84	48
Joel Dahmen	8200	20	68.78	81	69.33	50.5
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8500	42	66.51	61	69.84	51.5
Abraham Ancer	7600	22	68.75	86	69.24	54
Carlos Ortiz	6100	85	63.09	26	72.22	55.5
Brian Stuard	7100	11	70.03	101	68.68	56
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6900	41	66.59	71	69.59	56
Jon Rahm	11200	95	62.41	22	72.4	58.5
Jason Kokrak	8900	91	62.68	31	72	61
Michael Thompson	6800	18	69.01	107	68.31	62.5
Brice Garnett	6100	9	70.52	118	67.85	63.5
Roberto Castro	6600	56	65.47	73	69.44	64.5
Ryan Palmer	8400	115	61.14	15	73.12	65
Francesco Molinari	9800	45	66.27	99	68.69	72
Matt Every	7200	60	65.29	84	69.28	72
Vaughn Taylor	6700	25	68.45	122	67.78	73.5
Ryan Armour	6100	4	72.37	152	66.53	78
Rickie Fowler	10500	114	61.16	45	70.66	79.5
Shawn Stefani	6800	119	61	40	71.43	79.5
Ben Silverman	6100	15	69.73	144	66.83	79.5
Rory Sabbatini	8800	74	63.82	87	69.2	80.5
Xander Schauffele	10000	146	59.41	16	72.99	81
Matt Jones	7400	100	62.17	62	69.8	81
Adam Long	6300	81	63.14	82	69.3	81.5
J.J. Henry	6000	55	65.55	115	67.99	85
Adam Schenk	6500	130	60.27	46	70.44	88
Scott Brown	6600	73	63.86	109	68.13	91
Brian Gay	6400	3	72.38	187	65.28	95
Talor Gooch	6700	180	56.5	11	73.54	95.5
Daniel Berger	7600	34	67.14	158	66.33	96
Tyrrell Hatton	7800	94	62.45	99	68.69	96.5
Tom Hoge	6200	105	61.65	90	69.05	97.5
Jhonattan Vegas	7300	169	57.69	32	71.95	100.5
Graeme McDowell	7800	49	65.79	154	66.49	101.5
Jason Dufner	7400	98	62.31	108	68.28	103
Denny McCarthy	6600	72	64.23	135	67.31	103.5
Jonas Blixt	6500	80	63.16	131	67.42	105.5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	7500	87	62.86	125	67.7	106
Austin Cook	6900	23	68.54	189	64.67	106
Bronson Burgoon	6400	69	64.5	145	66.67	107
Dominic Bozzelli	6500	112	61.23	103	68.44	107.5
Kevin Na	8000	75	63.65	141	66.86	108
Bud Cauley	7200	88	62.84	130	67.53	109
Martin Laird	7000	123	60.8	96	68.83	109.5
Cameron Champ	6700	197	54.62	24	72.35	110.5
C.T. Pan	7300	56	65.47	166	66.08	111
Nick Watney	6600	143	59.7	89	69.09	116
Ryan Blaum	6300	92	62.59	140	67.1	116
Billy Horschel	8100	103	62.01	131	67.42	117
Ben Crane	6500	52	65.73	182	65.5	117
Joaquin Niemann	7100	145	59.44	92	69.03	118.5
Louis Oosthuizen	9000	35	67.12	202	62.22	118.5
Kevin Tway	7500	182	55.98	56	70.12	119
Scott Langley	6100	33	67.31	205	61.9	119
Byeong Hun An	7500	160	58.31	80	69.35	120
Roger Sloan	6300	93	62.58	149	66.62	121
Zach Johnson	7900	66	64.87	178	65.71	122
Trey Mullinax	7200	205	51.83	41	71.39	123
Whee Kim	6000	113	61.19	134	67.33	123.5
Tony Finau	9600	175	56.94	78	69.37	126.5
J.T. Poston	7100	135	60.09	124	67.72	129.5
Justin Rose	11400	170	57.38	90	69.05	130
Brian Harman	6900	58	65.41	204	62.01	131
Hudson Swafford	6100	166	57.97	97	68.73	131.5
Brandt Snedeker	7900	90	62.74	173	65.83	131.5
Ted Potter, Jr.	6200	82	63.1	181	65.56	131.5
Bill Haas	7100	147	59.38	119	67.84	133
Pat Perez	7700	76	63.59	191	64.35	133.5
Patton Kizzire	6700	136	60.03	137	67.17	136.5
Rod Pampling	6200	78	63.37	200	62.7	139
Branden Grace	7500	161	58.3	120	67.82	140.5
Si Woo Kim	7700	150	59.21	137	67.17	143.5
Nick Taylor	6800	155	58.8	136	67.3	145.5
Beau Hossler	6700	125	60.69	168	66.05	146.5
Richy Werenski	6100	122	60.88	172	65.96	147
Chesson Hadley	6200	138	60	162	66.2	150
Danny Lee	7300	188	55.59	114	68.02	151
Charley Hoffman	7600	162	58.17	141	66.86	151.5
Max Homa	6900	195	54.71	116	67.92	155.5
Andrew Putnam	6800	152	59.13	161	66.27	156.5
Scott Stallings	6800	191	55.43	123	67.75	157
Martin Kaymer	7000	131	60.24	192	64.32	161.5
Sam Burns	7100	176	56.93	150	66.55	163
Jordan Spieth	10900	204	51.94	131	67.42	167.5
Aaron Baddeley	7000	153	58.9	185	65.37	169
Seamus Power	7200	156	58.74	198	62.78	177
Anirban Lahiri	6500	149	59.25	206	61.63	177.5
Chris Stroud	6300	171	57.28	190	64.38	180.5
Mackenzie Hughes	6200	181	56.18	180	65.59	180.5
Jimmy Walker	7400	196	54.66	166	66.08	181
Wyndham Clark	6400	201	53.99	169	66.02	185
Peter Malnati	6300	199	54.42	188	64.77	193.5
Ollie Schniederjans	7000	211	47.49	176	65.76	193.5
Peter Uihlein	6600	206	51.49	183	65.49	194.5
Michael Kim	6200	193	55.31	199	62.72	196
Doug Ghim	6700	0	0	0	0	0
David Toms	6600	0	0	0	0	0
Boo Weekley	6400	0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Perry	6400	0	0	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Keith Clearwater	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Tom Purtzer	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Tyrone Van Aswegen	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Tucker Wadkins	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Weir	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Tim Herron	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Dru Love	6000	0	0	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)

For DFS purposes, I much prefer Paul Casey or Ian Poulter to the high-priced big dogs, Rose and Jon Rahm. Their games are better statistical fits right now for Colonial, and those high price tags will not return much value to your lineup without a minimum top 10 finish.

Two of the top head cases on tour, Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau, arrive at the CSC in precarious positions. Spieth looked to have found his game a bit, with a T-3 finish at last week’s PGA Championship, his first finish inside the top-20 this season. He could be wildly popular in DFS from this range.

On the other hand, resident tour physics professor DeChambeau, missed his second consecutive cut. It’s only a matter of time before his equations start working again, resulting in everyone discussing his revolutionary approach to golf. He has the upside to win.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–43 players)

On the high end, Scott Piercy and Emiliano Grillo have both been playing well, and are solid statistical fits for this course. Grillo, an Argentina native, will be looking to build on the momentum at Colonial where he finished an event career best, sole third last year. Also, as the tweet below indicates, he will be looking to overcome the typical, 2019 American police brutality that victimized him at last week’s PGA Championship in New York.

Just out of curiosity…

Is it normal/ok for a cop in the USA to aggressively hit your car mirror with his hand because I made a driving infraction ?

— Emiliano Grillo (@GrilloEmiliano) May 19, 2019

I can’t speak for everyone, but I for one. AM. OUTRAGED! I may even sign a petition, demanding a time machine be invented so Grillo can improve his experience, and we can give Tiger another chance to make the cut.

Seriously though, if you signed that petition, you’re a giant loser. Now that I have that off my chest, Chez Reavie and Jim Furyk are my favorite mid/low-priced targets in this range, for the same reasons as Piercy and Grillo.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about ~70 players)

In my Byron Nelson preview, I profiled similar key stats as targets for that course. Nate Lashley’s name popped out as a great fit, and it worked nicely with a T-29 finish. A thinner field should help his chances of cashing his ninth check in 12 starts this season.

Talor Gooch can be wild off the tee, but has been an elite approach shot guy in his second full season on tour. His four made cuts in nine starts this season have all been top-25 finishes, with two inside the top-5, so when he gets to Saturday, he usually plays a factor.

His mental state will likely depend on whether or not the petition he signed gets approved…

Where’s Bran?! Go control a dragon or something for crying out loud. How’s Cersi get off that easy…I mean wow. And so many questions. Like now who’s gonna kill Dany? Arya, Jon, Sansa, who? I’m just truthfully not sure how I feel about everything right now…

— Talor Gooch (@TalorGooch) May 13, 2019

Another interesting play from this range is Doug Ghim. Having turned pro last year, he is spending most of his time on the Web.com tour.

He ranks in the top 50 in key metrics on that tour, hitting 67 and 71 percent of fairways and greens in regulation, respectively. On the big tour this year, he’s managed three weekends in five starts, including a career best, T-12 at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Ryan Palmer–MC at last week’s PGA in what has been a solid 2019.
• Bryson DeChambeau–See above.
• Brendan Grace–MC at the PGA. Does not miss many weekends in a single season. Hasn’t missed back to back cuts on the PGA Tour since August of 2017.
• Russell Knox–Also MC last week. Has the right game for Colonial, as his three top-25s in his three career appearances suggest.

Best Course History Plays

• Ryan Palmer–Both categories! Did you know that Palmer has made 11 weekends in 15 career appearances at Colonial? And, he has never missed the cut in consecutive starts here. AND, he missed it last year? You do now! Roster accordingly.
• Zach Johnson–Similar to Palmer, Johnson was an MC here last year. Before that, ZJ made 12 straight weekends at Colonial, including five top-10s, with two wins.
• Bill Haas–Last season’s T-14 here made it seven weekends in a row for Haas, and eight of nine in cuts made overall.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Grillo
2. Furyk
3. Casey
4. ZJ

Good luck in Fort Worth! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!