If you need PGA DFS to help you manage withdrawal, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.
One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game
All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Charles Schwab Challenge (CSC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.
Course: Colonial Country Club Fort Worth, TX Par 70 Yardage 7,200
Corporate sponsors may change, but the scenery does not. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas has been an annual tour stop since its inaugural event in 1946.
Now, with this year’s schedule change going into effect, it becomes the season’s second major championship hangover for the foreseeable future. This week it draws five of the top 10 ranked players in the world, including defending champ, Justin Rose.
His winning score of 20 under par was one shot off the tournament record, set by Zach Johnson in 2010. Over the last 10 years, the winning score has averaged right around 15 under, so making birdies will be a must to contend.
Here are the past five winners and their scores:
Keys to Success
My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:
- Driving Accuracy (DA)
- Greens/Fringes hit in regulation (GIR/FIR)
The first imperative to even attempting makeable birdies will be hitting fairways. Colonial is littered with oak and walnut trees all over the place.
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
Players with one too many errant tee shots will shoot themselves out of weekend play. And, out of your beautifully crafted DFS lineups.
No one needs that, so an emphasis on accuracy off the tee should be targeted this week. After hitting fairways, you guessed it, hitting greens will be very key to setting up convertible birdie attempts…
In general, accuracy > power is the theme for the week. To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:
|Name||Salary||DA||DA Percentage||GIR/FIR||GIR/FIR Percentage||Composite Rank|
|Byeong Hun An||7500||160||58.31||80||69.35||120|
|Ted Potter, Jr.||6200||82||63.1||181||65.56||131.5|
|Si Woo Kim||7700||150||59.21||137||67.17||143.5|
|Tyrone Van Aswegen||6000||0||0||0||0||0|
*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify
Price Range Targets
Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)
For DFS purposes, I much prefer Paul Casey or Ian Poulter to the high-priced big dogs, Rose and Jon Rahm. Their games are better statistical fits right now for Colonial, and those high price tags will not return much value to your lineup without a minimum top 10 finish.
Two of the top head cases on tour, Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau, arrive at the CSC in precarious positions. Spieth looked to have found his game a bit, with a T-3 finish at last week’s PGA Championship, his first finish inside the top-20 this season. He could be wildly popular in DFS from this range.
On the other hand, resident tour physics professor DeChambeau, missed his second consecutive cut. It’s only a matter of time before his equations start working again, resulting in everyone discussing his revolutionary approach to golf. He has the upside to win.
Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–43 players)
On the high end, Scott Piercy and Emiliano Grillo have both been playing well, and are solid statistical fits for this course. Grillo, an Argentina native, will be looking to build on the momentum at Colonial where he finished an event career best, sole third last year. Also, as the tweet below indicates, he will be looking to overcome the typical, 2019 American police brutality that victimized him at last week’s PGA Championship in New York.
Just out of curiosity…
Is it normal/ok for a cop in the USA to aggressively hit your car mirror with his hand because I made a driving infraction ?
— Emiliano Grillo (@GrilloEmiliano) May 19, 2019
I can’t speak for everyone, but I for one. AM. OUTRAGED! I may even sign a petition, demanding a time machine be invented so Grillo can improve his experience, and we can give Tiger another chance to make the cut.
Seriously though, if you signed that petition, you’re a giant loser. Now that I have that off my chest, Chez Reavie and Jim Furyk are my favorite mid/low-priced targets in this range, for the same reasons as Piercy and Grillo.
Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about ~70 players)
In my Byron Nelson preview, I profiled similar key stats as targets for that course. Nate Lashley’s name popped out as a great fit, and it worked nicely with a T-29 finish. A thinner field should help his chances of cashing his ninth check in 12 starts this season.
Talor Gooch can be wild off the tee, but has been an elite approach shot guy in his second full season on tour. His four made cuts in nine starts this season have all been top-25 finishes, with two inside the top-5, so when he gets to Saturday, he usually plays a factor.
His mental state will likely depend on whether or not the petition he signed gets approved…
Where’s Bran?! Go control a dragon or something for crying out loud. How’s Cersi get off that easy…I mean wow. And so many questions. Like now who’s gonna kill Dany? Arya, Jon, Sansa, who? I’m just truthfully not sure how I feel about everything right now…
— Talor Gooch (@TalorGooch) May 13, 2019
Another interesting play from this range is Doug Ghim. Having turned pro last year, he is spending most of his time on the Web.com tour.
He ranks in the top 50 in key metrics on that tour, hitting 67 and 71 percent of fairways and greens in regulation, respectively. On the big tour this year, he’s managed three weekends in five starts, including a career best, T-12 at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago.
Best Bounce Back Candidates
- Ryan Palmer–MC at last week’s PGA in what has been a solid 2019.
- Bryson DeChambeau–See above.
- Brendan Grace–MC at the PGA. Does not miss many weekends in a single season. Hasn’t missed back to back cuts on the PGA Tour since August of 2017.
- Russell Knox–Also MC last week. Has the right game for Colonial, as his three top-25s in his three career appearances suggest.
Best Course History Plays
- Ryan Palmer–Both categories! Did you know that Palmer has made 11 weekends in 15 career appearances at Colonial? And, he has never missed the cut in consecutive starts here. AND, he missed it last year? You do now! Roster accordingly.
- Zach Johnson–Similar to Palmer, Johnson was an MC here last year. Before that, ZJ made 12 straight weekends at Colonial, including five top-10s, with two wins.
- Bill Haas–Last season’s T-14 here made it seven weekends in a row for Haas, and eight of nine in cuts made overall.
Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.
These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections: