PGA DFS Wells Fargo Championship Preview

If you need PGA DFS distraction to remedy your NFL team drafting a guy in the second round no one, including the entire staff at ESPN, has ever heard of, you’re in luck! I post DK targets each week here, on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. The way DK prices their fields out, I almost never will play anyone 10k or above. With something as random as golf performances week to week, they simply do not justify the investment in my mind.

Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

Last season, I consistently laid out the theory that rostering players five figures and above just was not worth it week to week. Scroll toward the end on my results page to see how I used the Masters results as evidence to support this. The point is, golf performances week to week are very erratic. For this reason, I would generally suggest diversifying your salary cap with mid-range to second tier players who possess similar floor/upside combinations as the chalk do.

Going a step further, unlike most other DFS games that have positions, golf is just picking six guys that are doing the same exact thing in a given week. That said, probably more than any other DFS sport I’ve played, leaving 1-2k on the table is perfectly fine. Do not feel like you HAVE to spend your entire cap.

Throughout this season I will post more thorough analyses of why both approaches make DFS golf a bit different from football, hoops, and baseball. And how ridiculously futile it makes it when trying to win. All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Wells Fargo Championship (WFC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Course: Quail Hollow Club  Charlotte, NC  Par 71  Yardage 7,550

After last week’s team event, the tour gets back to its regular scheduled programming in Charlotte, North Carolina at Quail Hollow Club (QH). This venue has played host to the WFC since 2003 except in 2017 when QH served as the site for the PGA Championship.

The course under went renovations for that major championship that switched it from a par 72 to a 71. Without “majoring” up conditions for last season’s WFC return to QH, the course played similar to years past, where winners typically eclipse double-digit under par final scores. Here are the past five winners:

2018	Jason Day	-12
2017	Justin Thomas	-8
2016*	James Hahn	-9
2015*	Rory McIlroy	-21
2014*	J.B. Holmes	-14

*par 72

Keys to Success

No matter what the layout to QH is, one attribute always remains. Like those super awesomely bad nerf turbo football commercials from my childhood, players are gonna go long…. REAL long to have an advantage this week. Even longer than Avengers End Game!

Seriously though, I have not seen it but I think it’s safe to assume they win. Do we really need three hours to figure out how? I mean what is this anyway? Shakespeare? The final installment to The Godfather saga? A Vanderpump Rules reunion?

One thing is for sure. Three hours in a theater can fuck right off. I won’t be finding out how they get that magic mitten off Thanos until it’s available to rent. Or, like any red-blooded American, until I jail break my fire stick good enough for a reliable Chinese subtitled bootleg.

With that out of the way, nine of 11 par 4s at QH average out to be 478 yards. Four of those will play around 500 yards, two of which are featured on the three hole “Green Mile” finishing stretch, known to be one of the toughest on tour.

Sandwiched in between those two monster par 4s is a treacherous par 3 that plays anywhere from 200-225, depending on the pin location for it’s somewhat island green. Statistically speaking, the combination of bombers and long-range dart throwers are going to have an edge playing at QH.

Players who rely more on precision can still have success, but the path to get there will be more of a challenge. To clarify, my top four stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Driving distance (DD)
2. Strokes Gained: Approach-the-green (SGA)
3. Par 4 Scoring (P4S)
4. Greens in regulation percentages from 200 yards and greater (GIR +200)

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking of all four key stats for this week. Sort at your pleasure…

Name	Salary	DD	SG: Approach	P4S	GIR 200+	Composite Rank
Rory McIlroy	11800	3	12	6	4	25
Gary Woodland	9000	9	27	6	7	49
Jason Kokrak	8700	32	4	27	31	94
Justin Rose	10300	24	25	27	24	100
Hideki Matsuyama	10100	15	2	48	46	111
Keegan Bradley	8000	60	6	67	3	136
Lucas Glover	8500	91	17	6	44	158
Phil Mickelson	9100	27	55	4	98	184
Rickie Fowler	10600	29	62	4	90	185
Chesson Hadley	7000	67	16	67	35	185
Trey Mullinax	7500	20	50	81	46	197
Paul Casey	9500	78	39	48	33	198
Sergio Garcia	9900	40	7	125	30	202
Sungjae Im	8600	89	38	31	45	203
Harold Varner III	7000	34	93	37	46	210
Alex Prugh	6400	39	80	81	17	217
Cameron Champ	7200	1	139	67	21	228
Byeong Hun An	8300	13	28	48	157	246
Tony Finau	9300	7	61	37	144	249
Joaquin Niemann	7400	52	32	81	90	255
Webb Simpson	9700	177	13	6	60	256
Jason Day	11000	55	119	17	71	262
Charles Howell III	8400	52	101	2	107	262
Cameron Tringale	7000	96	58	48	65	267
J.B. Holmes	7900	33	69	37	130	269
Josh Teater	6500	139	45	81	6	271
Cameron Davis	6400	16	51	99	105	271
Roberto Castro	7600	192	30	37	13	272
Luke List	8000	2	33	81	168	284
Henrik Stenson	8900	127	3	168	8	306
Nate Lashley	6200	182	23	6	95	306
Keith Mitchell	7800	47	54	81	137	319
Daniel Berger	7700	82	158	48	31	319
Dylan Frittelli	7400	94	76	67	82	319
J.T. Poston	7500	94	85	37	104	320
Danny Lee	7300	44	52	99	125	320
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7300	177	60	48	42	327
Adam Schenk	6700	59	36	67	165	327
Jonathan Byrd	6700	199	48	2	80	329
Chez Reavie	7400	166	34	31	100	331
Jhonattan Vegas	8200	23	102	48	159	332
Martin Laird	7000	101	108	99	37	345
Kevin Streelman	7700	134	73	67	74	348
Max Homa	6600	50	94	168	41	353
Michael Thompson	7400	170	56	48	88	362
Sepp Straka	6500	37	57	139	133	366
Sam Burns	7200	18	168	99	82	367
Fabián Gómez	7000	158	141	67	2	368
Wyndham Clark	7400	4	192	48	129	373
Carlos Ortiz	6900	42	137	125	69	373
Brendan Steele	7200	31	107	156	90	384
Hudson Swafford	6900	82	72	168	67	389
Scott Stallings	7300	98	29	99	164	390
Russell Henley	7300	164	89	48	93	394
Chase Wright	6100	82	170	125	22	399
Joel Dahmen	7600	118	104	81	99	402
Sam Saunders	6600	67	98	99	138	402
Harris English	6700	54	163	67	119	403
Julián Etulain	6600	126	105	81	95	407
Zach Johnson	7900	174	25	139	71	409
Jim Knous	6400	78	87	156	88	409
Adam Long	6200	110	77	168	63	418
Danny Willett	6800	124	18	196	87	425
Shawn Stefani	6500	105	142	99	79	425
Seth Reeves	6300	11	209	184	25	429
Jonas Blixt	6900	161	95	81	95	432
Sung Kang	7800	61	68	156	152	437
Matt Every	7200	132	173	99	33	437
Stewart Cink	6500	109	165	99	64	437
Bud Cauley	7100	100	78	125	139	442
Adam Svensson	6300	163	49	125	105	442
Matt Jones	7200	89	135	99	120	443
Roger Sloan	6200	74	121	139	112	446
Aaron Wise	8100	24	175	99	153	451
Hank Lebioda	6800	119	79	125	133	456
Peter Malnati	6700	143	84	67	163	457
Patrick Reed	8800	85	152	67	158	462
Nick Taylor	7300	136	133	48	145	462
Whee Kim	6700	181	75	139	67	462
Johnson Wagner	6700	200	70	48	153	471
Scott Brown	7300	165	151	81	86	483
Ben Silverman	6500	186	160	125	18	489
Dominic Bozzelli	6500	108	195	17	171	491
David Hearn	6900	202	183	37	70	492
Chris Thompson	6200	152	162	139	46	499
Adam Hadwin	7200	114	176	125	85	500
Pat Perez	7100	189	174	125	15	503
Sangmoon Bae	6300	103	189	168	46	506
Stephan Jaeger	6600	93	172	196	46	507
Wes Roach	6000	143	178	168	20	509
Tom Hoge	6000	158	46	156	150	510
Anders Albertson	6100	133	63	139	176	511
Mackenzie Hughes	7100	104	157	168	84	513
Vaughn Taylor	6600	195	112	67	141	515
Brandon Harkins	6900	36	126	168	186	516
Richy Werenski	6800	138	159	81	139	517
Beau Hossler	6900	78	184	67	191	520
Sebastián Muñoz	6100	63	166	99	195	523
Rory Sabbatini	7700	121	147	125	131	524
Denny McCarthy	7000	124	181	99	120	524
Jim Herman	6200	147	148	184	46	525
Kelly Kraft	6800	147	82	184	116	529
Nick Watney	7600	66	128	156	183	533
Robert Streb	6800	143	129	125	136	533
Chris Kirk	6800	184	71	156	122	533
Kramer Hickok	7100	156	169	99	118	542
Ollie Schniederjans	7000	6	186	193	178	563
Jimmy Walker	7500	61	134	193	176	564
Chris Stroud	6900	150	130	99	189	568
Ben Crane	6600	204	196	139	38	577
José de Jesús Rodríguez	6300	154	185	81	161	581
Tyler Duncan	6200	169	171	184	61	585
Peter Uihlein	7000	72	182	139	199	592
Ernie Els	6800	194	150	48	206	598
Anirban Lahiri	6400	127	179	99	196	601
Ryan Armour	7100	206	143	48	205	602
John Senden	6100	187	98	156	175	616
Martin Trainer	6600	24	203	184	208	619
Kyle Jones	6300	197	190	168	71	626
Ryan Blaum	6700	153	153	156	167	629
John Chin	6300	87	205	184	153	629
J.J. Henry	6100	182	155	125	169	631
Brice Garnett	6400	188	177	81	188	634
Curtis Luck	7200	168	204	81	187	640
Kyle Stanley	7500	134	146	184	201	665
Bill Haas	7100	161	167	196	142	666
Ted Potter, Jr.	6600	208	138	156	194	696
Joey Garber	6000	139	212	168	181	700
Jason Dufner	6700	176	145	184	200	705
Seamus Power	7100	116	210	206	178	710
Roberto Díaz	6300	174	187	139	211	711
Freddie Jacobson	6400	185	113	209	210	717
Brady Schnell	6400	198	187	168	165	718
Scott Langley	6400	213	191	139	192	735
Brian Harman	6800	193	207	156	209	765
Cody Gribble	6300	147	201	212	207	767
Rod Pampling	6000	179	208	196	204	787
Padraig Harrington	6900	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Hagy	6500	0	0	0	0	0
Billy Hurley	6500	0	0	0	0	0
Alvaro Ortiz	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Doc Redman	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Will MacKenzie	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Broc Everett	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Brendon Todd	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Smylie Kaufman	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Tom Lovelady	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Steve Scott	6000	0	0	0	0	0

*players without data have not played enough measured rounds in PGA Tour events

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–10 players)

Rory Mcilroy and Rickie Fowler have it all coming into this week. Solid form, superb event history, and high rankings in key stats will undoubtedly have them as popular plays in any fantasy/gambling format.

No one in this range scares me. However, if you’re looking to fade higher prices in general, Tony Finau and Phil Mickelson have similar traits in terms of course history, and statistical fit for QH.

Finau has made the weekend in all four QH appearances, including two top-25s. Hefty Lefty clearly loves the club house fries as he has cashed a stellar 14 checks in 15 career QH appearances, with a whopping 10 finishes inside the top-10.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–51 players)

I wrote a lot last year how I thought Jason Kokrak was an ascending player that was on the verge of breaking through with his first PGA Tour win. I might have been one year off on that prediction.

The cause of this mid-career breakout? His putter.

Three years into full-time tour status, Kokrak lost it on the putting surface. He was even interviewed on the Jim Rome show Wednesday, and made references to how much he has grinded through his putting issues to get where is this season. A quick look at the strokes-gained putting data tells the story better than anything:

Year	SGP Rank	Metric
2012	137	-0.184
2013	121	-0.119
2014	53	0.222
2015	110	-0.012
2016	154	-0.288
2017	175	-0.405
2018	110	0.022
2019	56	0.292

Now that his wand is no longer such a burden on his strong tee-to-green game, the Xavier alum is one of the safest bets on tour this year. His perfect 14/14 cuts made with four top-10 finishes before May has him in great shape to make his first career Tour Championship.

Some cheaper options in this range that have strong key stats are Luke List, Keegan Bradley, and Trey Mullinax. Another bomber in this range to consider is Aaron Wise, who finished T-2 in his first career WFC appearance last year.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–95ish players)

This might be the week Chesson Hadley gets right. His recent play has been similar to Vince Vaughn attempting to play dramatic roles.

The poor form should be enough to throw people off the scent of a venue where Hadley has had moderate success. Three of his four QH appearances have been top-20 finishes. He also is a solid fit statistically as the table above indicates.

All we need to do now is green light a Wedding Crashers sequel so we can Make Vince Vaughn Great Again too! Or, maybe just not embarrassingly awful like this quaalude induced performance in Dragged Across Concrete I regrettably chose to witness.

From strictly a key statistical standpoint, Adam Schenk, Max Homa, Cameron Davis, and Sepp Straka are my favorite plays to make the weekend in this range. And maybe even be this week’s Arya Stark once they get there. 🙂

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Justin Rose–MC last time out at Masters. Does not always play in this event so that tells me he wants to get back out there.
• Byeong Hun An–MC two weeks ago at the RBCH. Very strong statistical fit for QH.
• Lucas Glover–Same exact blurb as above.
• Paul Casey
• Sunjae Im–Also an MC from two weeks ago in what has been an early season rookie of the year campaign.

Best Course History Plays

• Phil Mickelson
• Rickie
• Rory
• Charles Howell III–12/16 in cuts made with two top-10s.
• Lucas Glover AGAIN!–11/15 in cuts made with five top-10s.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Kokrak
2. Finau
3. Mickelson
4. List

Good luck in Charlotte! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome.