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Cleveland Browns – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Cleveland Browns – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition

.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

New Players

  • TE Demetrius Harris
  • WR Odell Beckham Jr
  • WR Jaelen Strong
  • RB Kareem Hunt (suspended 8 games)

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

CLE QB  The CLE QB position saw a nice +4.4% increase in team usages. 2018 had the QB producing the best PPR points in the last 6 years. Seems to support the acquisition os OBJ/Strong/Harris for pass catchers. These off-season moves seem to support a stronger 2019 to come. Mayfield is currently going at QB5. This is amazing considering last year he was behind Taylor as the QB. Mayfield seems to be on a developmental fast track! 

CLE RB – The RB position in 2018 was weak and lost -5.5% of the team usage. 2018 was the 2nd worst in the last 6 years. Given their acquisition of Hunt, they are thinking to limp into the 9th 2019 game and having a fresh Hunt back to propel CLE into the playoffs! Chubb is still a strong RB going at RB 12. I would play him till Hunt coming in. Hunt is at 43 RB? I am not sure that ADP is a good bargain.  

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

CLE TE – The TE position in 2018 was down by 1.5% in team usage. 2018 was the top 3 years in the last 6 years for CLE TEs. Harris might be a sly late TE2 pick but Njoku is the show for CLE in 2019. He is going at TE9 and would be a solid late TE choice. 

CLE WR –  The CLE WRs improved by 2.6% in 2018. 2018 was the top WR year for CLE WRs in 6 years. That falls right in line with Mayfield’s 2018 season. OBJ is set to rule the CLE roost in 2019! OBJ is at WR5 now. Mayfield is seen a positive for OBJ! Landry is at WR21 and will be the possession WR for CLE. Callaway is at WR54 as well. Seems a strong WR3 pick and could have streaming value. Given his potential for improvement in 2019, I would gamble on him as a late WR pick!

These facts seem to set up for CLE in 2019 to move forward! 

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Cleveland Browns

Slide27 CLE

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