Cincinnati Bengals – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Cincinnati Bengals – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )

In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 

The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)

Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Quarterbacks and Running Backs

CIN QB  The QB position gained in team usage vs 2017 by 2.4%. Their 2018 FP average was second in the last 6 years. The team certainly can build on that good year. The QB/WR ratio was at the low-end of the league (0.57) and suggest WRs are getting more than their fair share of pass FP! The bad news is that the CIN QB is not in the top 25 QBs via ADP. Seems a stretch for 2019 to draft them. Note that AJ Green is WR 13 and Boyd is WR 22. Seems like some QB (Dalton?) will have Top WRs to pass to in 2019.  Believe Dalton will move up the ADP ladder. 

CIN RB – The 2018 season saw the RB position drop in usage by -1.4%. It was a below average FP season as well looking at the last 6 years. What will be done in 2019? The RB/WR ratio was biased to the WRs at 0.65 (low in league metric). Mixon was a solid RB and is RB 10 in current ADP and Gio B is at RB 50 (weak pass catcher?). Suspect Mixon is what the public thinks for 2019. Low-end RB 1 seems conservative.

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

CIN TE – Injuries were an issue in the 2018 CIN TE story. They were usage at -1% less than in 2017 so usage differential was not greatly different. The 2018 TE FP was still below average in the last 6 years though. The last 3 years of TE FP have been in a tight range of 158 to 175 FP. No CIN TE is going about TE 19 in ADP. Not expecting much more in 2019.  CJ Uzomah Added Back for 3 years 18M.

CIN WR –  CIN WRs were unchanged basically in 2018. Their FP was high but still below the 6 year team FP average. The TE/WR and QB/WR usage ratios suggests solid passing FP for 2019. Note that AJ Green is WR 13 and Boyd is WR 22 in current ADPs but Dalton is not ranked by ADP? I would draft both near their price in draft capital. 


Cincinnati Bengals 

Slide26 CIN

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