Week 17 Milly Maker Plays:
This Sunday we have 4 teams with expected team totals over 29. PIT, KC, NE, and SEA are all 13 or higher home favorites. The only noticeable team total line movement that interests me is BUF up to 22.5 (+1.25 up.) This slate can be a bit overwhelming with all kinds of value opening up because of starters sitting in preparation for the playoffs and that we have 15 games to analyze. I also wanted to note that the ownership projections may seem whacky based on both of the above listed catalysts. Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Tom Brady 2.5% owned
Coming off an overtime shootout with GB, I’m expecting a NYJ team to come out flat on the road. I’m not expecting another shootout this week but that is irrelevant when facing the Patriots at home. After losing Gordon, expect the Patriots to find rhythm in their passing game heading into the playoffs. This week Brady is ranked top 5 in QBR, Supporting Cast Efficiency (Player Profiler metric measuring recievers’ effectiveness), and PaPass Completion %. PFF’s OL/DL Matchup Chart lists the Pats with 22% and 29% pass and rushing advantages over the Jets. With a 30 point implied team total, I like a Pats onslaught stack (QB/RB/WR).
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Matt Ryan 1% owned
Ryan has been quietly effective as a fantasy QB this year averaging 23.8 FPPG and 33/6 TD INT ratio. Ryan projects as a top 5 option again this week. Ryan ranks 3rd in passing DVOA, 4th in Production Premium, and his receivers have a top 10 supporting cast efficiency. Much like the Bucs, the Falcons are fine to abandon the rushing attack which has been wholly ineffective. The visiting Falcons are expected to score 26.75 points in sunny Florida.
James Conner 10% owned
Conner is listed as questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Bengals after missing 3 weeks with an ankle injury. If Conner suits up, expect him to slide into his normal role. When healthy, Conner is essentially an every-down RB seeing over 80% of the snaps at the position. He also leads the slate in GL rush attempts. Conner also gets the top Receiving DVOA matchup with a 23.1% advantage for RB receptions. Be proactive in checking to make sure he’s good to go Sunday morning. If he’s out, plug in Samuels.
Damien Williams 5% owned
The Chiefs’ offense has been rolling along since sending workhorse RB Kareem Hunt packing. They have been so pleased with Williams’ performances over the past couple weeks, they locked him in for another 2 years. That kind of confidence would imply a secure workload. Since Week 14, Williams has been good for 62% of RB snaps, 63% market share of rushes, and 17% market share of targets. The Chiefs have an expected team total of 33 (slate highest). He’s topped 100 all purpose yards in the last 2 weeks and has had DK totals of 30.3 and 29 over the last 2 weeks.
Chris Carson 7.5% owned
The Seahawks have a massive total playing at home against division rival Cardinals. This is pretty cut and dry. Carson is the workhorse for this offense and a near lock for 100 yards and a TD. The Cardinals have been a mess on offense and Rosen should turn the ball over and give the Seahawks good opportunities to score.
Barkley (ROY?), Jamaal Williams, CJ Anderson
Julian Edelman 10% owned
I’m not going to spend much time on this pick. Here’s my thinking though: Huge home favorites with clear concentration of targets, a road opponent coming off an exhausting OT game, Buster Skrine across the LOS, and massive team total. Next!
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Isaiah McKenzie 2.5% owned
Like I stated in the open, The Bills line movement is intriguing to me. Since throwing in the towel on Kelvin Benjamin, there seems to be a more clear pecking order at WR. Ineffective Zay Jones is uninspiring but I do find interest in slot man McKenzie and to an extent Robert Foster. McKenzie has 7, 7, and 8 targets over the last 3 weeks. At $3700 you can do a lot worse than a player seeing this kind of involvement on a full PPR site like DK. Xavien Howard is out and the Dolphins CB position has shuffled around a bit. According to PFF WR/CB Matchup Chart McKenzie has a massive 42% advantage over Walt Aikens.
Woods, Adams, Juju, Hopkins
Samuel, Patterson, Diggs, Sutton, Nelson, Snead
Jeremy Sprinkle 1% owned
His price at $2700 and expected workload have piqued my interest. Since Jordan Reed has gone down for the season, Sprinkle and veteran Vernon Davis have split the TE duties. Now with Davis not expected to play, we have a last man standing type situation. The Redskins have 1 other TE on their roster.
DST: PIT, SEA, HOU, BUF, PHI
Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!