If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I have been posting DK targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 8 games included in the Friday DK contest:
|[email protected]OU 12:00PM ET||7.5||78|
|[email protected]UCF 3:30PM ET||3||64.5|
|[email protected]OSU 8:00PM ET||14||60.5|
|CLEM@PITT 8:00PM ET||26.5||53|
|BAMA@UGA 4:00PM ET||13||63.5|
|[email protected]BSU 7:45PM ET||2.5||50.5|
|STAN@CAL 3:00PM ET||2.5||48.5|
|[email protected]VT 12:00PM ET||4.5||53.5|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Darrell Henderson and Kyler Murray. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,033. This is the price range I will focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid range plays. Which brings me to my first selection…
Isaiah Bowser | RB | Northwestern $5,800
Although the Buckeye’s performance against UofM’s running game was inspiring, it also had a lot to do with the unwillingness to adjust. When it became apparent OSU would not allow UofM’s gut ball offense to work, James Joseph Harbaugh wouldn’t budge.
Call me crazy, but I’m assuming Pat Fitzgerald (who doesn’t even make half the money), will bring a little bit more unpredictability and creativity to the game plan, keeping the Buckeye defense off balance like it has been throughout the season.
Bowser has emerged as a true cowbell out the Wildcats backfield down the stretch, leading them all the way to the Small Ten Championship. With ceiling concerns now on the UCF offense, and potential matchup issues for Georgia, I’m more satisfied with the price/floor/upside combination that Bowser offers.
Besides, last time I targeted the OSU run defense with a mid range play, good things happened 😉
Brenden Knox | RB | Marshall $5,100
Another tailback who has a chance to strongly outperform his price range is this Thundering Herd redshirt freshman. Since the injury to starter Tyler King, Knox has been the best answer for the Marshall running game.
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The Columbus, Ohio native has averaged over five yards per rush, gaining 281 yards, and one score in his three starts. Was the weak Conference USA the reason though?
Probably partially. But, it might not matter because Virginia Tech ranks 103rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per game.
Assuming King doesn’t play, like Bowser, there is a ton to like about Knox’s situation heading into Saturday compared to high-priced, bigger names at his position.
Going even cheaper, Fresno St.’s Jordan Mims ($3,800) should be involved enough to crack double-digit DK points.
CT Thomas | WR | Boise State $4,000
Broncos freshman sensation wideout John Hightower is in danger of missing his fourth consecutive game. Thomas is coming off his single game career high yardage total of 89 last week in a win over Utah St. In Hightower’s absence, quarterback Brett Rypien and Thomas have developed a strong rapport.
Additionally, my twitter stalking turned up this gem. Clearly, Thomas has the trust of his quarterback. Of the receiver options in his range, I like his floor the most.
Ohio St. Receivers
If there is one thing we know about Urb’s 2018, it’s that his fate will be determined on the right arm of Dwayne Haskins. The way they play gives any receiver on the field potential for a big game.
That’s why I really like Chris Olave ($3,400) as one of my favorite dart throws on the board. In general, there should be value all over the place among their wideouts.
A sneaky mega dart throw would be OSU running back Demario McCall ($3,000). He’s been getting a little run the previous couple games. Last week, the sophomore made a really nice 33 yard catch out of the backfield on a wheel route, in their “insert hyperbolic phrase here” win over UofFraud.
It’s Bama. They can hang 50 on anybody. Working under that premise, everyone, especially Tua ($8,600) seems under priced in the Tide offense.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Clayton Thorson | QB | Northwestern $4,900
No one can stop me from my Northwestern stack! In all seriousness, the Vegas projections suggest that the Cats should be able to put up roughly three scores. And, as stated, I don’t think Urb’s defensive issues were magically cured last week.
If Thorson’s floor scares you too much, Darriel Mack Jr. ($6,800) is intriguing for UCF. He’s a big kid, with running ability that will probably factor into goal line situations. Even with McKenzie Milton out, Vegas still anticipates this game being a back and forth shootout.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
Kyler Murray | QB | Oklahoma $10,300
Nothing special here. When I spend in this range, I want to feel like I have a 40 point floor. Murray is the only guy that offers that kind of guarantee on investment.
Considering the 7-on-7 drill that matchup will be, pivoting to an Ehlinger ($9,000) Texas stack could prove to be the more shrewd approach.
Good luck for Championship Week! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are much appreciated.