If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
|WVU@OKST 3:30PM ET||5||71|
|OSU@UMD 12:00PM ET||14||58.5|
|NCST@UL 12:20PM ET||16||63.5|
|[email protected]ND 2:30PM ET||10||61.5|
|TTU@KSU 3:30PM ET||6.5||56.5|
|[email protected]TEMP 12:00PM ET||14||61|
|PITT@WAKE 12:00PM ET||6||61|
|[email protected]MICH 4:00PM ET||28||53.5|
|MSU@NEB 12:00PM ET||2||49.5|
|MIZZ@TENN 3:30PM ET||6||55.5|
|[email protected]GT 3:30PM ET||6.5||54|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Taylor Cornelius-Tylan Wallace stack. What I will do is point out that rostering the potent duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,433. This is the price range I will focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid range plays. Which brings me to my first selection…
Anthony McFarland | RB | Maryland $4,900
If there is one thing that Maryland can do, it’s run the ball (ranked 19th in the nation in yards per game). If there is one glaring weakness for Urb’s 2018 Buckeyes, it’s stopping the run. For the most part, the Terps backfield has been crowded all season, but that may not be the case this weekend.
With senior backfield mate Ty Johnson on the mend, this redshirt freshman took on a featured role last week against Indiana. He relished the opportunity, piling up 210 yards on 29 carries. That should be enough to give him the nod heading into what is sure to be a very emotional senior day.
As of now, Johnson’s status for Saturday is murky at best. Regardless (irregardless is not a word btw), I think they ride McFarland until he proves to be ineffective. With a very chalky running back board, he’s my favorite price/floor/upside combination.
Tyron Johnson | WR | Oklahoma St. $6,200
I have been playing Johnson almost weekly this season as one of the most mispriced players in DK week to week. Considering his recent play, growing rapport with TC, how much attention Tylan Wallace will draw, and the seven-on-seven drill match-up, I would argue he’s still under priced.
He is my “Jalen Reagor” selection this week, as the most likely average priced player to compete with the chalk, for highest scoring receiver on the board. Ventrell Bryant ($5,500) is runner up in that category.
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Cody White | WR | Michigan St. $5,100
A not so distant third is a mention from last week. White ($4,200 in Week 11) paid off nicely with an 8-115 line, and even had a throwing touchdown called back on a penalty. What is very promising for DFS purposes, is that White was able to remain very productive in spite of inconsistent (being very polite) quarterback play from both Spartan quarterbacks.
If he wasn’t just getting back from an injury, he’d be closer to Johnson’s price on a weekly basis. Another mention from Week 11, Da’Leon Ward ($5,900) also remains slightly under priced this week. His role seems firmly in place in the Red Raider backfield.
Sharing is Caring
As a selfish person, I tend to ignore most running backs locked into time shares. However, whether it be the impending holiday season, or the fight I had with my kind-of girlfriend over how selfish I am, I’ve begun to see things a bit differently. The threat of no sex typically does that to me.
There seems to be an inordinate amount of tricky backfield situations for this week’s day slate. Additionally, because we all play with some level of risk adversity, hitting big on the right side of a time share will pay huge dividends in GPPs. For this reason, I would like to share my choice for each situation, if I were to involve myself in such complicated circumstances.
Larry Rountree III $6,000 vs Damarea Crockett $5,700
As much attention as Drew Lock and the receivers get, these two tailbacks generate 195 rushing yards (44th in the country) per game. Rountree is the younger upstart of the duo, while Crockett serves as the wily veteran team leader.
After their gut wrenching loss at the buzzer to Kentucky almost one month ago, this article details how Crockett’s leadership has helped to right the ship in the locker room. On the field, he’s been rewarded with a slight uptick in touches over the last two games:
It isn’t a major shift, but enough to nudge me in Crockett’s direction if I had to choose between the two, whose season long stats are just about identical. Regardless of DFS, Crockett and Rountree is now the name of my script for the Netflix Original detective buddy series I have been writing.
Ty Chandler $6,100 vs Tim Jordan $4,600
Sticking in the same game, this is the much more intriguing backfield. From a price standpoint, Jordan is the clear choice, in what is virtually an even split.
But. Chandler’s much higher YPC stat, and being the more effective receiver, tells me he is the guy that has the ability to do more with his touches. I don’t feel great about it, but it’s Chandler or no one in the Vols backfield for me.
Jordan Cronkrite $5,200 vs Johnny Ford $5,300
It’s Ford. And, it’s not close. Not that it’s impossible, but if we can all agree that DFS situations like this are pure speculation, then Cronkrite is strictly the contrarian play at this point.
Justice Hill $5,800 vs Chuba Hubbard $4,900
Last week’s rib injury to Hill knocked an already half-open door right off the hinges for Hubbard to be the GPP darling of the day. Now, heading into another game that will likely play a major role in DK, I’m not sure I can drop the money on Hill.
I wrote last week how Hubbard was already beginning to nip at the heels of Hill’s feature role. I’m no doctor, but a rib injury can’t be the best thing to play through for a running back. Even if Gundy goes full Bud Kilmer to “make Hill understand” how to play hurt, Hubbard looked great in his expanded role against the Sooners.
All that said, I’m convinced this is shaping up as an even split workload this week. Or, perhaps a hot hand situation. Either way, I’ll take the cheaper, fresher, and healthier guy in Hubbard.
There may not be a ton of upside with this group against UofM’s vaunted defense, but Nick Westbrook ($3,800), Luke Timian ($3,900), Donavan Hale ($3,500), and J-Shun Harris II (3,600) all make for solid price/floor combo meals at the wideout position.
Hale and Westbrook are the higher upside plays. Timian and Harris II are of the higher floor variety, in a game where there is some serious garbage passing implications for the Hoosiers.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Alex Delton | QB | Kansas St. $5,700
I really wanted to go with Tobias Oliver here, but Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson ripped a few more pieces of my DFS soul away when he barely played him last Saturday, effectively rendering my night slate lineups useless. Instead, I’ll try another running quarterback, looking to add on another solid performance in his limited opportunities.
Similar to the Zach Abey play in Week 11, Delton is essentially a super high floor running back, with passing stats upside, in a game that Vegas thinks the Wildcats will be live home dogs Saturday. For what it’s worth, he was the starter in last season’s 42-35 OT win at Texas Tech. He was playing decent before suffering a concussion late in the first half, and did not return.
If starter Skylar Thompson ($5,000) is healthy enough to go in Delton’s place, I wouldn’t hesitate to play him as well. Anthony Russo ($7,000) would be my favorite mid range choice.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
Tylan Wallace | WR | Oklahoma St. $8,800
Remember when DK priced him at $5,500 against Texas a month ago for no apparent reason? Um… Yea… About that…
I’m sure Antoine Wesley ($8,900) will be fine, but some slight concerns about Jett Duffey being able to maintain his effectiveness as a passer on the road, has me believing Wallace has the higher floor this week.
Good luck for the Week 12 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.