Welcome to Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread! Kyle and I are here make 3 picks against the spread each and every week. I stayed hot last week with a perfect 3-0 week, while Kyle had an unfortunate break to finish 1-2. Each week is a new week and we’re here to make you some money!
Aaron’s reaction: 3-0 last week and this is starting to get ridiculous. The Dolphins kept it too close for comfort but pulled out the 7-point cover. The Falcons game went exactly as I said it would and betting against Peterman is like taking candy from a baby.
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I’m now sitting at 69% overall on the year (hehehe, Gronk). I normally watch a lot of NFL this year, but I don’t think I’ve missed a second of Sunday football yet and it’s paying dividends. Well, not literally, but if you’d like to invest in my investments let’s chat.
Kyle’s reaction: week 9 was not a great week for me going a disappointing 1-2. I would love to thank HC Vance Joseph for thinking a 51 yard field goal was a safe distance to settle at. The Chargers were the absolute right side and Washington was the absolute wrong side. That said, its bounce back week and I feel like I am seeing the board really well this week. Lets find some winners!
Week 9 results:
On the season:
Aaron : 18-8-1
Kyle : 12-13-2
Let’s get to the $:
Seattle Seahawks +10 @ Los Angeles Rams
I’ve bet against the Rams the past two weeks and it’s worked out well. The Rams are the best overall team in the league, are coming off a loss, and will be playing at home. If it sounds like I’m pitching the wrong side of me pick it’s because I’m highlighting why this line is so large.
The Seahawks are trending in the right direction through getting back to what they do best: grounding, pounding, and tough-nosed defense. That Russell Wilson guy isn’t bad either. I could see them not being able to rely on the run game if they fall behind early, but I think Wilson and his weapons will be ready to step up in the second half to make it a game if that happens.
Pick: Seahawks +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Washington Redskins
Take a look at my (beautiful 3-0) picks from last week and read the write-up about Washington. Too lazy to click? I’ll sum it up for you. Washington isn’t that good, and they absolutely cannot compete with high-powered offenses.
Tampa Bay isn’t a well put together team by any means, but they are going to score way more than Washington even knows how to. Kyle and I are really in tune here and the rest of the world should be too.
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Los Angeles Chargers -10 @ Oakland Raiders
This really doesn’t need much explaining if you’ve seen the Raiders the past 3-4 weeks. They are the new Cleveland Browns. The team that won 3 games in 3 years. The Raiders aren’t even trying anymore.
LA is 6-2 and wants to push Kansas City for the divisional lead. They know that it’s going to be tough to overcome them and they are going to come out and make a statement against Oakland. LA has won the last 2 matchups by 16 and 20 – this one is going to be 20+.
Pick: Chargers -10
Cincinnati Bengals +6 vs New Orleans Saints
I love this spot for the Bengals. They welcome the New Orleans Saints who are coming off of a massive win at home over the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams. Drew Brees is traditionally not nearly the same QB. Per Jared Smola of DraftSharks, in 8 games outdoors since the start of 2017, Brees has averaged 240 passing yards and 1.25 TDs.
The Bengals are without AJ Green this week which is not great but with Tyler Boyd’s emergence and a healthy Joe Mixon, they are in a better position than past seasons. They also should have John Ross back which is impeccable timing.
I feel like this will be a close game that comes down to a late score to decide it. I expect the Saints to win but the Bengals to cover the 6 points at home.
Pick: Bengals +6
Atlanta Falcons -6 at Cleveland Browns
After a very rough start to the season, the Atlanta Falcons are a team trending in the right direction. Even Julio Jones scored a TD last week! The defense is still not great but adding Bruce Irvin will help. The win in Washington was impressive.
The Browns are still figuring things out even with Hue Jackson and Todd Haley out of the picture. While I expect Baker Mayfield to play well for fantasy football purposes, he is a player that does make mistakes.
My podcast partner Bobby Adcock put together some great info about TD drives when the game is within a score. They are currently third only behind the Chiefs and Rams. The Browns are 21st in scoring drives and a staggering 27th defensively.
While I am a little nervous at the staggering amount of tickets on Atlanta, I think the Falcons keep it rolling this week and cover the 6 points on the road.
Pick: Falcons -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs Washington Redskins
For me this is a play against the direction of the Washington Redskins. The offensive line is a complete mess with Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao done for the year. They were built to run the ball and Alex Smith to throw sporadically.
The Buccaneers are not good, but they can move the ball offensively. They are 7th in TD drives and Washington cant stop good offenses. The Buccaneers are pretty bad also, but you need a dynamic passing offense to really beat them. Alex Smith and this Redskin offense are not the ones to do it.
Take Tampa Bay at home to cover the field goal.
Pick: Tampa Bay -3