Welcome to Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread! Aaron and I are here make 3 picks against the spread each and every week. We both went 2-1 a week ago and are looking to stay hot.
Aaron’s reaction: Yet another 2-1 week… this is getting ridiculous! The Packers and Colts covered their spreads with ease, while the Bengals blew it after Fitzmagic entered the game. All they had to do was not allow him and the Bucs score 18 in the 4th. We can’t win them all, but we’d obviously like to. For those of you keeping track at home, my bonus pick was the over in the CIN-TB game which also hit.
As I mentioned this last week, but my picks are in order of confidence. Since the start of 2017, I’ve hit 76% (16/21) confidence #1 picks. I’m 64% and 38% respectively for my #2 and #3 picks, so if you don’t want to hit all my games… you know where to put your money! We have the highest total line EVER in the NFL this week, which I will surely be staying away from although will be watching very closely.
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It was a nice week for my picks. I was a wild Derek Anderson swing from going to 3-0. Instead of a TD that got overturned, the next play was a TD also but it was going the other way. Seattle and Indianapolis won going away and covered with ease. This week I want to keep it going in the right direction and get over .500.
Week 8 results:
On the season:
Aaron : 15-8-1
Kyle : 11-11-2
Let’s get to the $:
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. New York Jets
The Jets have performed surprisingly well this year despite injuries and a ragtag group of position players. After starting out 3-0, the Dolphins have predictably been 1-4 since. Their losses however have come to solid teams (NE, CIN, DET, and HOU). During that time span, they also beat the Bears. The Jets are at the point in the season where it’s best to start losing. While that may not be the message in the clubhouse, the entire team knows it. They are decimated with injuries and really need to chalk this year up to rebuilding.
The Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum and are fighting for their divisional lives. Osweiler seems to be rejuvenated in his 7th season as a backup… and he’s fighting for the starting job ROS. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a blowout, but at a minimum expect the Dolphins to win this game at home.
Picks: Dolphins -3
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Atlanta Falcons +1.5 @ Washington Redskins
This one is a combination of match ups, regression, playing the odds for me. First off, the Falcons defense stinks and we’ve seen that against good offenses. Their offense on the other hand is top-notch. The Redskins play the ground & pound game, relying on clock and possession management to win games.
They cannot compete with high-powered offenses. Their only 2 losses came to the Saints and the Colts. They did beat the Packers in week 3, but outside of that they have beaten only defensive-minded teams.
Flipping over to the odds & regression piece… the Falcons are 5-2 ATS while the Redskins are 2-5. This clearly shows that the public enjoys the high-powered Falcons while they stay away from the Redskins “dink & dunk” Alex Smith show. The Redskins average 21 points/game and have scored above 24 just once this year. The total implies a 25-22 type game which I just don’t buy.
The Falcons are coming off a bye, Ridley should be fully healthy, and they are going to put points on the board. I think the Falcons get up early and control the game, forcing Alex Smith and the Skins to use their 26th ranked passing game. Falcons win and cover easily.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
Chicago Bears -9.5 @ Buffalo Bills
Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bills this week… ever heard of him? He’s only played 7 games in his NFL career, but he already holds records – quite impressive! In those 7 games, Peterman has compiled a 46% completion percentage (rounding up), 360 yards, 3 touchdowns (WOW!), and 9 interceptions. That’s good for a 31.4 QB rating! Those 9 interceptions have come on 81 pass attempts (11%). I don’t have the stat but I’m almost positive that at least 4 of those interceptions have been of the pick-6 variety.
I bet against him in week 1 and it paid off. I haven’t even mentioned the Bears and Khalil Mack… the most feared pass rusher the league has seen since old-school JJ Watt. The Bears defense is currently rated #1 in the league and are tied for second with 11 interceptions. Fortunately for the Bills, quarterbacks usually become more accurate while being bum-rushed by multiple people on every single play. Hopefully you picked up on that thick sarcasm throughout this entire write up and have already put your life savings on the Bears.
Pick: Bears -9.5
Washington Redskins -1.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
This is an interesting spot for Washington. They are a slight favorite at home against a team that is a mess on defense and are good on offense. If they are good, they should win this week. They addressed an already productive defense by adding HaHa Clinton-Dix. The Adrian Peterson resurgence has given this offense some much needed balance.
The Falcons offense is sexy but they scored 12 and 17 points in their only road games this season. I expect another low scoring output by Atlanta’s offense and Washington doing enough on offense to win the game at home.
Pick: Washington -1.5
Denver Broncos -1 vs Houston Texans
The Houston Texans rebounded offensively last week against the Miami Dolphins with a crazy Deshaun Watson performance. They added Demaryius Thomas this week who will fit nicely across from DeAndre Hopkins.
That said, I’m taking the Broncos in this spot. They traditionally play better at home. The offense should lean on Phillip Lindsay and the run game. Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and the Broncos defense will make plays
I expect the Texans struggle offensively trying to getting DT involved and running the ball.
Give me the home team to cover the small number at home.
Pick: Denver -1
Los Angeles Chargers +1 at Seattle Seahawks
The LA Chargers come into this game off of a bye week, while the Seahawks return after an impressive win at Detroit. While Seattle has rebounded after a bad start, I expect the Chargers to perform well even on the road.
Seattle has a banged Chris Carson and Doug Baldwin who are both expected to play. I think the Seahawks will struggle to find footing at home and lose.
Pick: LA Chargers +1