By John Bush
Best at Best Ball Part 5
Best at Best Ball Part 5 continues in the series of Best Ball depth articles on this subject using current ADP based FP/G projections. Confusing issues are the focus!
Best at Best Ball Part 1 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36666
Best at Best Ball Part 2 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36677
Best at Best Ball Part 3 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36708
Best at Best Ball Part 4 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36726
NYJ have RB and WR Issues
NYJ Running Backs
The debate in NYJ RBs is Crowell vs Powell. Both had nearly 20 Red Zone Targets. Powell got 30% target share and 9.7 ish of FP/G! Crowell had only 8 FP/G and 28% target share. Both had RBBC in 2017 and that continues in 2018! Also, McGuire and Rawls are lurking.
The Public rates Crowell at 8.8 FP/G and is going in the 9th round. Powell is going in round 12 and expected to generate 8.0 FP/G. Given a 3 round difference Powell seems to selection and that is support by his higher 9.7 FP/G in 2017. The public is discounting him too much. Given the aspect of McGuire could be the 3rd down type, this 3 RBBC remains limited for all. These are 5th RBs at best.
The experts say Crowell at 38th and Powell at 45th. The data support a higher risk for Powell vs Crowell. That is driving the differences in the public best ball. I remain bearish on all but depth at RB is never a bad idea!
NYJ Wide Receivers
The WRs are a little surprising given the public is not considering Kearse and Enunwa! Thus this WR crew is mispriced and late bargains will exist. The experts see it as Anderson at 44th WR, Enunwa at 65th, Pryor at 80th and Kearse at 85th WR.
Note that Ewnuna was injured in 2017 but in 2016 he had 15 red zone targets vs Anderson’s 5 red zone targets. Enunwa was in the play in the 2016 NYJ red zone. That is being missed by the public but detected by the experts. In 2017 Kearse had 8 red zone targets and Anderson has 10 with Enunwa they split up the red zone looks?
This crew is so underrated it is confusing for many. Anderson is clearly the lead with his 13.5 FP/G and 117 targets but Kearse had 12.10 with 109 targets. Pryor in WAS 2017 had only 37 targets and 4 of those were red zone looks.
My debate is among Anderson, Enunwa, and Kearse? Clearly a 4 ring circus with cuts all down some. The public predicted 10.2 FP/G going in the 9th round and Pryor at 8.5 in the 12th. If we take the public minus 25% decrease on Anderson in 2017 vs 2018 then Kearse goes at 9.1 FP/G and that is 12 round WR material. Kearse is undervalued! A solid late reach. Also, Enunwa was similar to Anderson in 2016 and he got 10.5 FP/G if you subtract 25% we arrive at 8 FP/G. He is a clear 16th round at the bottom.
I lean to take Kearse as the bigger gamble upside then Enunwa late. Taking both in the 19th and 20th rounds might be the plan!
OAK and SEA have RB issues
OAK and PHI have WR issues
OAK Running Backs
The issue with the OAK RBs is Lynch vs Martin coming over from TB. The public is taking Lynch at round 9 at 8.9 FP/G vs Martin in round 14 at 7.3 FP/G. In 2017 Lynch had 27% target share at 188 Rushing Attempts. Martin was at 17% and 138 ATTs. Martin was generating 27% fewer attempts than Lynch and is predicted to be 18% less in FP/G.
Additionally, Martin in 2017 only had 6.7 FP/G in production vs Lynch at 11 FP/G. There are also Richard and Washington as well. Thus can Martin increase? Nothing suggests Martin can improve.
The next question is why does the public suggest Lynch drops from 11 FP/G to 8.9 FP/G which is a 20% drop. Martin should not change Lynch’s production. Does the new coach go away from Lynch? The experts suggest Lynch at 29th RB and Martin at 65th. Thus they suggest a 55% difference giving Martin a low 7 FP/G high-risk player.
I lean Lynch at a ceiling of round 6 RB but take at round 9 the current draft point.
OAK Wide Receivers
The WRBC include Cooper, Nelson, and Bryant. Nelson from GB and Bryant from PIT. Given the new issues involving Bryant, his numbers can drop down lower. The public takes Cooper at 4th round 14.2 FP/G, Nelson at 7th round 11.4 and Bryant (currently) at 10th round 10 FP/G. If Bryant is suspended 4 games? then he would be in the 16th round 7.5 FP/G completely out of play! Thus those 25% FP/G are in play and Cooper and Nelson could go up. Thus now you cab draft Nelson and Cooper and assume a bump up from Bryant’s issues.
Cooper got 30% target share vs the other two at 23% target which is a 24% difference. Note the FP/G between Nelson and Cooper is 20% so the public is little overvaluing Nelson. Bryant (no issues) is undervalued if you look at FP/G difference of 30% but target share of 24%, a positive 6% to Bryant favor (subtract a round them at round 9?).
The experts like Cooper at 14th WR, Nelson at 40th (35% of Cooper) and Bryant 60th (23% of Cooper). They mirror the public here. In 2017, Cooper was 12.65, 8.65 for Nelson, and 9.45 FP/G. The red zone stats in 2017 were Nelson at 12 targets 5 TDs, Cooper 10 targets and 3 TDs, and Bryant with 9 targets 2 TDs.
In summation, Cooper is an avoid for me as he seems at his ceiling. Nelson is a buy if Bryant misses games and Bryant is a buy if he does not miss games. I think Nelson is undervalued now in ADP but I am adding more hurdles requiring Bryant out to make sure he is a bargain. A movement to another team can be good or bad thus I need more for my taking Nelson.
PHI Wide Receivers
The WRBC group picked by the public is Jeffery (Round 4 with 13.1 FP/G), Wallace (Round 16 with 8.2 FP/G) and Agholor (Round 8 with 10.6 FP/G). In 2017, the actual FP/G were Jeffery 13.95, Wallace 11.7 (83% of Jeffery), and Aghlor at 12.06 FP/G (86.6% of Jeffery).
The 2017 numbers vs the predicted 2018 it is clear that Jeffery is priced right while Aghlor and Wallace are undervalued! Aghlor’s ceiling is 6th round and Wallace at 7th round. Yes, Wallace is way way undervalued and a have drafted him later in many Best Ball teams as a high upside free square!
Wallace was at 37% target share and scored 3 TDs which may be low. Such a treat so late! FYI even the experts are judging Wallace hard at 80th WR! Aghlor is at 41st WR and Jeffery at 20th WR. Aghlor is a little undervalued as well.
I take Wallace late all day long. I judge Jeffery as ceiling priced and avoid him. Aghlor is a possible target but he has to drop to me.
SEA Running Backs
The public sees the SEA RBBC as Penny the Rookie vs Carson. The experts see its a 3 RB show of Penny, Prosise, and Carso. Penny at going at 6th round to get you 10.5 FP/G and Carson drafted in the 11th round predicted at 8.1 FP/G. Prosise thus is the most undervalued as he is off the boards!
This is a confusing backfield and expecting a Rookie to be the show has to be considered a gamble. I would pass on him and most likely look at Carson/Prosise but late and maybe past Carson to take the last round stab at Prosise.
SF, TEN, and WAS have WR issues
TB has TE issues
TEN and WAS have RB issues
SF Wide Receivers
The public selects 2 WRs for focus! Goodwin at 11.7 FP/G round 6th round and Garcon at 10.9 round 7. Experts see it as Garcon at 32 low risks, Goodwin at 47th mid risk and very later Pettis at 82th and at high risk! Red Zone raw number have Goodwin at 15 and Garcon at 5 (He was injured in 2017) but Garcon caught 60% vs Goodwin at 33%. I expect Garcon RZ targets up and Goodwin’s drop. Finally, Garcon is 10.8 FP/G and Goodwin at 10.6 in 2017. The public expect Goodwin to improve from 10.6 to 11.7!
I lean to passing on Goodwin unless he drops into 7/8 rounds and support Garcon into the 6th but take him in the 7th round. Garcon should deliver in the Red Zone more this year that add to his undervalueness! FYI Pettis is a free square late and there are targets for the WR3 in SF. A true WR3 type of sleeper.
TB Tight Ends
The public based ADPs see the TBBC that is TB TEs! Howard is going 10th round at 9.2 vs Brate in the 12th round at 8.5. Last year Brate has a 61% target share and Howard at 30% target. Brate was double the efforts of Howards in target share. The FP/G was much closer with Howard at 8 FP/G and Brate 9 FP/G which is a 12% difference.
The public sees the reverse of Howard over Brate by 8%. Brate was at 13 Red Zone Targets with 5 TDs and Howard at 6 targets and 3 TDs. Thus Howard had 32 non-Red Zone targets and Brate at 69 non-Red Zone targets. The Experts rank Howard at 12th and Brate at 16th. They see Howard is very safe and Brate is mid risk level player.
I lean based on the Bush’s Rules of Similarity, take Brate later and expect a small upside into the 11th round. Best Ball 2nd TE material.
TEN Running Backs
The TEN RBs is a 2 headed show. The Public likes both RBs. They are drafting Henry at round 3 for 12.5 FP/G vs Lewis from NE being drafted in round 5th to produce 11.4 FP/G. In 2017 Henry fought with Murray and got 28% target share and 176 rushing attempts. Lewis generated 25% target share and 180 rushing attempts. Murray leaves 47 targets and 184 rushing attempts. Those are a lot of targets and rushes to split out to Henry and Lewis! The division is unknown.
The experts actually have this order flipped. Lewis at 19th RB and Henry at the 26th RB. That obviously means Lewis is the bargain by the expert’s standards and Henry is the overvalued RBs. A certain lack of Henry trust. He seems to be a second fiddle to a primary RB type.
In 2017, Lewis had 8 RED Zone Targets and 3 TDs and 35 and 6 TDs rushing in the red zone. Henry had 3 red zone targets and 0 TDs and 27 rushing with 3 TDs in the red zone. That is 43 potential and real touches with 9 TDs in Lewis vs Henry having 30 and 3 TDs. The data suggest Lewis dominates Henry.
I lean to Lewis at his price and expect him to rise further up into his ceiling in round 3 while Henry is an avoid at round 3, at price in round 4 and a selection in round 5!
TEN Wide Receivers
The confusion is around Davis vs Matthews as the TEN WRs. The public is taking Davis first in round 8 at 10.8 FP/G and Matthews in round 12 and predicted to generate 9.3 FP/G. In 2017 though, Davis got 67 targets for a 25% target share and Matthews produced 89 targets for a 32.5% target share. That is a 24% difference in favor of Mathews who is going 3 round later?
In 2017, we also had Davis delivered 9 FP/G and Matthews gave us 11.5 FP/G. Why is Matthews expected to drop 2 FP/G and Davis increase1.8 FP/G? We have a range of 4 FP/G points exchanging between the two. Matthews got 8 red zone targets and 2 TDs vs Davis got 5 targets in the red zone and 0 TDs. The experts pick Davis 26th WRs and Matthews T 44th WRs and Matthew are rated 2X as risky as Davis.
The main reason is that Davis missed 5 games and the off-season in his rookie year in 2017. They were equal in targets per snaps for 2017. So the rookie kept up within the per snap range. This is clearly an expectation view of experts and public that Davis improves into a WR1 in his second year and his skills etc will have improved.
I will not chase Davis in the 7th round but will consider in the 8th round. I think Matthews is priced well for 12th round and 13th round is the point for me to acquire him.
WAS Running Backs
The RB backfield is confusing not because of the RB1 Guice but selecting C. Thompson vs S. Perine. Guice is the rookie expected to dominate the other RBs and the public drafts him in round 4 for 12 FP/G. The other two are going much later in the 14th round to produce 7.5 FP/G. In 2017 Thompson owned the skies and had 54 targets for 45% target share. The role of pass catcher RB seems to be his. Perine had 24 targets and 20 target share. The roles were reversed in rushing with Thompson at 64 rushing attempts (19%) vs Perine at 175 (51%) Thompson was dealing up 15 FP/G vs Perine’s 7 FP/g in 2017.
The experts seem to like Guice at 24th RB but mid risk, Thompson at 31th RB and Perine at 69th. Thompson has 6 red zone targets and 1 TDs while Perine had 1 and 1.
The 14th round for Thompson is a great bargain there but he is going in the 6th round now. He is His true draft round should be near the 5/6th round. Take him there as he has even 5th round upside. Avoid Perine and hold on Guice his current price if 24th while I am buying at 28th or less! I try to get both in best ball FYI.
WAS Wide Receivers
The WRBC consisted of 3 WRs, Crowder (Round 8 10.5 FP/G), Doctson (Round 12 at 9.5) and finally Richardson in round 13 for 9 FP/G. In 2017 Crowder has 110 targets/35% share (strong) while Doctson had 88 targets/ 28% share and Richardson in SEA had 78 targets / 27% share. Doctson was only 20% less than Crowder and Richardson was 30% less. Those numbers seem to suggest undervalue for Doctson and Richardson.
In 2017 FP/G Crowder did 13.3, Doctson 9 and Richardson was at 9.6. Thus the public expects Richardson to decline slightly, Doctson to increase slightly and Crowder to drop by 22%. What evidence do we have that Crowder drops? If his ceiling is 13.3 then Crowder is a 4th round WR. Crowder had in the red zone, 14 targets with 3 TDs while Doctson had 16 targets and 4 TDs. Doctson thus shared the red zone with Crowder. Richardson had 11 red zones and 4 TDs there. The experts say its Crowder at 31th, Doctson 55th, and Richardson 65th.
I predict this WRBC is the MIA of 2018 with Landry role being Crowder, Stills being Doctson and Parker as Richardson. That MIA 3 headed crew generated a lot of points. In best ball, these WAS WRs are the WRBC to select as the red zone upside is strong in all 3 WRs. I have not found that to be true in any other team so far. Grab them all or at least 2 in best ball. Crowder first at 4/5th round Doctoson in the 6/7 and Richardson in 7/8th.
Done on my Best Ball Series. Moving onward from them.