PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5

By John Bush

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5

PPR Ranks Risk and Skew Week 5 present my rankings, which are not simply numbers on a page or column. I included my metric based risk assessments at the player and team levels as well a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.


Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.


Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.



Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).



Week 5 Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the week 3, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

This week GB and LAC have the numbers of high-risk players.

DAL, KC, MIN, and PIT are teams with the highest % of low-risk players!

Good Tie breaker data in DFS or Lineups!

FYI to finish my week’s picture

  • I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
  • I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
  • Blindly following numbers is not the best way!


Figure 3 to 4.     Week 5 Team Risk Landscape

Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data for a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players. (Figure 4)




 PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5

I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!


Defense and Special Teams

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5 Slide02



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PPR Running Backs


PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5 Slide22

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PPR Tight Ends

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5 Slide25

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PPR Wide Receivers

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 5 Slide28

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