PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4

By John Bush

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4

PPR Ranks Risk and Skew Week 4 present my rankings, which are not simply numbers on a page or column. I included my metric based risk assessments at the player and team levels as well a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.


Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.


Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.



Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).



Week 4 Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the week 3, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

For example, this week LAC has well over half its ranked players at high risk (78%) and WAS has 73% of their players at high risk! My rankings in those teams and others nearby must be considered a best case.

ATL and DEN have zero players at high risk while MIA, MIN, NYG, DAL, CAR, BUF, and BAL have only 1 player per team having predicted high risk! Use this data to evolve your views.

FYI to finish my week’s picture

  • I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
  • I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
  • Blindly following numbers is not the best way!


Figure 3 to 4. Week 4 Team Risk Landscape

Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data. and Finally a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players.

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide15

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide16


 PPR Ranks, Risk, Skew Week 4

I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!


Defense and Special Teams

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide18



PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide18



PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide19


PPR Running Backs

Slide20PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide21Slide22


PPR Tight Ends

Slide23PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide24


PPR Wide Receivers

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide25PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide26PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4  Slide27PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 4 Slide28


Stay up to date with the latest
Fake Pigskin fantasy news,
updates and exclusive offers!