2QB ADP for Redraft Leagues – June 2015

Joshua Lake
June 25, 2015

There is not much good ADP data for 2QB leagues, so we have been putting together 2QB mock drafts throughout the summer months for the last few years. This year, we got started in mid-June, so our June 2QB ADP data is only based on four mock drafts. While that isn’t a very large sample size, it at least provides enough information for us to generate a rough idea of values in this year’s 2QB leagues. (If you are new to 2QB leagues, check out my article, How to Win: An Introduction to 2QB and Superflex Leagues.)

All our mock drafts are 10-team redraft leagues, where each reception is worth half a point. The starting lineup requires 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 D/ST.

If you’re interested in just the raw data, go ahead and scroll down, because I am going to make a few observations first. I also solicited comments from a few participants in the mock drafts, so their thoughts are mixed in with mine.

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Surprisingly, only three quarterbacks made the top ten in June: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. It appears that even 2QB drafters are willing to wait on quarterback this year, given how deep the position appears to be. C. Bergum noted that there is a ton of QB value to be had late in 2QB drafts; for example, in one draft you could get Sam Bradford in the 10th round and Sanchez in the 16th, cornering the market on the Eagles QBs.

As Jonathan Smith put it, “If I don’t have the 1.01/1.02 in redraft, I’ll punt QB til the mid-rounds.”

There is a very large gap between the 31st and 32nd picks, Alshon Jeffery and T. Y. Hilton. Jeffery has an ADP of 27.8, while Hilton falls, on average, to 35.5. That suggests most drafters agree on roughly the top 30 players in 2QB leagues, but after that point opinions begin to diverge more widely.

Now, I want to take a look at some specific players. I’ve split the comments into players who look like a value versus those who cost too high a price right now.

I’m Buying

Arian Foster fell to the beginning of the 3rd round in most drafts, and I am certainly buying him any time I can at that price. He was RB5 last season in standard leagues, despite missing three games. Only DeMarco Murray averaged more points per game in those non-PPR leagues, per FFToday.

Larry Fitzgerald fell outside the top 100 picks in some drafts, which presents extraordinary value. Over the last two seasons, when Carson Palmer was healthy, Fitzgerald averaged more than five catches, eight targets, and half a touchdown per game. Not bad for a player you can pick up in the 10th or 11th round right now!

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I am not yet a huge believer in Sam Bradford this season, although even in the Rams’ offense I thought Bradford had QB2 potential, because it is not yet clear his knee is healthy or that he will have the starting job by Week 1. (At this point he hasn’t even once been able to play in a full 11-on-11 drill.) That said, QB22 strikes me as too low for the young quarterback who will likely lead the fast-paced Chip Kelly offense this year.

On to the Next One

Todd Gurley appears heavily overpriced in some leagues, as Kevin Gadde pointed out. Gurley may well start the year on the physically unable to perform list, meaning he would miss at least the first six weeks of play. In two leagues, Gurley was taken before the sixth round. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is a steep price for a player who has never played in the NFL, is coming off a knee injury, and might miss the first six weeks. I would look for more sure things before I would be willing to draft Gurley.

We talked about this on the 2QB podcast recently, but Teddy Bridgewater is getting drafted far too early, with an ADP of 53 in June. Among QBs with at least 200 attempts last season, Teddy was 27th in fantasy points per game, according to FFToday’s data. While Bridgewater is a candidate to improve greatly this year, drafting him as QB15 is a massive leap. He is being drafted ahead of Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick, and only went a few picks after Philip Rivers, last year’s QB9.

Keep an eye on Jordy Nelson‘s health this offseason, as he comes back from hip surgery. As Kevin Gadde commented, the surgery could mean Nelson is being overdrafted as WR6. Then again, Jordy Nelson was WR2 in non-PPR formats last season when he was healthy, so if the surgery has no lasting effects there’s potential this is a bargain on the top receiver in Aaron Rodgers’ offense.