Yesterday, I wrote about three underdrafted MFL10 QBs, quarterbacks who are being selected far later in MFL10 drafts than their 2014 stats would suggest. Today, we’ll turn to four overdrafted MFL10 QBs.
Overdrafted MFL10 QBs
Let’s take a look at those four quarterbacks who are going far earlier than their 2014 numbers suggest they should.
First, Cam Newton is being drafted ahead of seven quarterbacks who all had better points per game in 2014. This suggests a strong consensus that Newton will return to his earlier self, when he finished as a top-five quarterback his first two seasons. This year, Newton shouldn’t have the broken bones in his back from last year, and he shouldn’t have the hairline fracture to his ribs that caused him to miss Week 1.
In addition, the Panthers added a wide receiver in the draft, trading up to select Devin Funchess in the second round. If Funchess can step into the offense quickly and provide a boost from Kelvin Benjamin’s inefficiency, there is reason to see an improved passing game for Newton in 2015. Cam is a bit pricy for my taste as QB6, but if you believe he’ll return to form this year, you may disagree.
Matthew Stafford is currently the 9th quarterback off the board in recent MFL10 drafts, despite the fact that eight quarterbacks drafted after him had better 2014 seasons, in terms of points per game. Stafford has long been a fantasy darling, despite serious questions about his talent and accuracy.
There are two ways to look at the narrative that a fully healthy Calvin Johnson will improve Stafford’s numbers. If you look just at last year, Stafford actually averaged more fantasy points and more touchdowns in the three games Megatron missed. If instead you look at the last three seasons combined, two of which didn’t include Golden Tate, Stafford is massively more effective with Calvin Johnson on the field. The question for you, if you want to draft Stafford as a top-ten option this year, is whether you believe he’ll improve upon 2014, when he finished as QB15 overall in the MFL10 format. Just keep in mind that head coach Jim Caldwell told reporters that he wants Detroit to pass less in 2015.
Worth noting: according to C.D. Carter, Newton and Stafford both turn into fantasy disasters when their teams lose, so don’t bet on them if you expect the Panthers and Lions to struggle in 2015.
Teddy Bridgewater is a candidate to break out in 2015, during his second full season as a professional quarterback. Field Yates recently placed Bridgewater atop his list of sophomores who could break out this season (Insider, $).Bridgewater will need to improve quite a bit to justify his current ADP of QB15 and 125.4 overall. Last season, Bridgewater had only the 24th-highest points per game among qualifying quarterbacks, and he seemed to fit the game manager mold much better than the breakout star drafted in the 11th round this year. If Bridgewater breaks out, perhaps due in part to the emergence of Charles Johnson and signing of Mike Wallace, he may justify his QB15 price tag, but let me preach caution. At QB15, you’ll be passing on Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco, each of whom scored at least two points per game more than Bridgewater last season, and who are going anywhere from 8 to 36 picks later in current MFL10s.
Robert Griffin III is the hardest in this list for me to write about. I have been a Redskins’ fan since the days of Mark Rypien and Art Monk, and I still believe trading the Rams for the second-overall pick was the right move, given the shape of the franchise. That said, even at QB26, Griffin is a risky pick. In six full games last season, Griffin only averaged 12.62 points per game, worse than anyone except Geno Smith (among quarterbacks drafted in at least 5% of MFL10s this year).
It appears Griffin will be Washington’s starting quarterback this year, but will he start all sixteen games? Will the coaching staff trust him enough to turn him loose? With an overall ADP of 176.5, Griffin is not someone I’ll be drafting. I’d rather add another wide receiver than pick a quarterback who only managed three touchdowns in six games last season.
Watch Out for Big Names Among the Overdrafted MFL10 QBs
You may personally believe Newton, Stafford, Bridgewater, or Griffin is poised to outperform their 2014 numbers, but you need to go into your draft understanding that you’re paying a premium compared to their last season’s statistics. If you plan to draft any of those four, know why you’re doing it.
For reference, here is historical ADP data for these quarterbacks from the time MFL10s began drafting in February: