Week 9, in my NFL Picks Against the Spread, was the first week in some time that i was over .500. I look to keep my picks trending in the right direction. Every NFL has played at least eight games thus far. The quality teams are starting to separate themselves. The next few weeks will be key for the teams floating around the .500 mark. The Broncos look to get back on track after being embarrassed a week ago in New England. The New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers battle as both look to remain in the NFC playoff picture, obviously this game is more critical for the 49ers who are in a tough division.
>Season Total 15-30
>Upset Alert 2-7
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Denver Broncos -11 at Oakland Raiders
I wanted to take the Raiders in this spot, who tend to play division foes closer than most expect, however after the embarrassing loss a week ago at New England, the Broncos will take their frustration out on the Raiders. The Broncos defense will get back to their old ways and dominate Derek Carr and the Raider offense. The Broncos will win this game by two touchdowns or more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
Everyone remembers the shellacking the Buccaneers took on the Thursday night game early in the season at the hands of the Falcons. This Falcons team is vastly different than the one that played in Week 2. The Falcons offensive line is plagued by injuries and the defense has shown an inability to slow down the opposing offense. Matt Ryan’s issues on the road remain a problem. Ryan is 0-4 on the road, his passer rating drops by nearly 40 points and his average yards per attempt drop by 3 yards. Josh McCown will be back under center for the Buccaneers which will hopefully give the offense a kick start. The Buccaneers should not only cover this game but win outright.
New York Jets +4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been on a roll the past two weeks including back to back 6 touchdown performances by Ben Roethlisberger. The Jets on the other hand have been a mess. They are 1-7-1 against the spread this season. This game will feature two teams who will run the ball, early and often. The Steelers probably win this game, but it will be close, decided by less than a field goal.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at Buffalo Bills
The Kansas City Chiefs are a team trending in the right direction. They will need to continue to improve this week on the road. Kyle Orton has done a lot for the Bills, in terms of helping them avoid the costly mistakes. They have a terrific defense, currently 8th in yards allowed per game and 6th in points allowed per game. The problem is the Chiefs are better in both cases 6th and 2nd respectively. Without Fred Jackson, the Bills will have a tough time moving the ball. I expect the Chiefs to win this game by at least a field goal.
San Francisco 49ers +5 at New Orleans Saints
The 49ers didn’t look awesome a week ago at home against the Rams. The Saints on the other hand have looked really strong the past two weeks. Aaron Rodgers did get banged up and made the the game against the Packers look worse than it really was. Mark Ingram’s return has stabilized the offense and helped the Saints play much better. The 49ers have been really good against the run defense. They currently are top 5 in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. If the 49ers can shut down Ingram and the offense doesn’t look like the train wreck they were last week, they will win this game outright.