Week 1 of my “NFL Picks Against the Spread” was not the ideal start to the season I had hoped for. I went 1-4, including 0-1 in my upset special. The New Orleans Saints were up big against the Atlanta Falcons and even after letting the lead slip away, still had the opportunity to cover the three point spread but were unable to do so. The San Diego Chargers were up 17-6 before Philip Rivers melted down under the immense pressure of the Arizona Cardinals defense. My picks would have looked much better if the Chargers and Saints had finished what they started. Don’t get me started on the Jacksonville Jaguars who were up 17-0 and were 10.5 point underdogs. 27.5 points seemed like a sure fire lock, until it wasn’t. Week Two against the spread will hopefully go much smoother. While as a bettor you need to adapt to the things you see, overreacting is the worst thing you can do.
The underdogs were the kings of the NFL in week number one, going 11-5 against the spread including the Vikings, Falcons, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Dolphins and Panthers winning outright. With 2013 being the year of the favorite, the underdogs were sure to have an improved 2014.
>Season Record 1-4
>Upset Alert Record 0-1
New Orleans Saints -6.5 at Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns will be without Ben Tate and possibly Jordan Cameron and Barkevious Mingo, all of whom did not practice Wednesday. The Saints blew a lead against the Atlanta Falcons and their high powered offense in week one. The Browns offense isn’t on the same level as the Falcons. The Saints will want to atone for Week One and will win this game by more than a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Indianapolis Colts
The Philadelphia Eagles found their stride Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with the loss of Evan Mathis, the Eagles high powered offense will be too much for the Colts awful defense. The Eagles defense should be able to put enough pressure on Andrew Luck to cover and likely win this match up. This Colts team is an average team with an incredible quarterback. The Colts will be in more games because of Andrew Luck but going against them week to week is a smart play.
Kansas City Chiefs +13 at Denver Broncos
I know, I know, how on earth could I take the points with a Chiefs team that looked awful in week one against the Tennessee Titans who are playing a Denver Broncos team that looked strong in their match up versus the Colts in Week One? A division game while getting more than 10 points makes this game stand out. The Chiefs will be better on offense including getting Jamaal Charles more involved. While I’m not expecting a Bronco loss here, I think the Chiefs will find a way to keep the game closer than it probably should be. The Broncos showed last week they let off the gas later in games and allow teams to get back into games.
New England Patriots -3 at Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings looked incredible in Week One against the St Louis Rams. The Rams were lost on offense and played their third string quarterback in the second half. The Patriots looked less than optimal in Miami. I’m willing to bet that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have the Patriots looking more impressive in Week Two. The Patriots will cover the spread with ease and remind everyone why they were among the favorites to come out of the AFC during the preseason.
Atlanta Falcons +5 at Cincinnati Bengals
A week ago the Cincinnati Bengals looked less than ideal in their opening game including settling for five field goals. Quarterback Andy Dalton was able to find AJ Green deep who made a tremendous play to find the end zone. The Falcons looked very impressive in their home opener. As long as Matt Ryan has his offensive weapons, the Falcons offense will be potent. I expect the Falcons to cover and win.