2021 Weekly Value for Fantasy Football is a weekly biased game, so why are we still comparing players by how well they finished in the year-end points? Year-End Points do tell us who stayed healthy all year. However, year-end points will not inform us how well a player added to your Fantasy Football team’s success or failure every week.
Points per game is a slightly better statistical tool than end-of-season points. Unfortunately, the points per game are limited and don’t tell us much about how players acquired those points. For example, it doesn’t show us the Value of most part-time players. This metric uses games where only one snap was received, the same as games where the player played full time.
Therefore, we need a weekly tool that combines a player’s consistency with prominent game ability into one easy-to-use number. That concept is the essence of the Best Ten Statistical Tool, which shows a player’s weekly Value. So let’s look at the data at TE after the 2021 season.
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CALCULATING WEEKLY VALUE
2021 Weekly Value Review of TE using one year of data for Fantasy Football can skew the actual Value of players because someone could have been nursing an injury yet playing all season. My Weekly Value metric removes games missed due to injury and partial matches from the mix by only playing full games. (30 Snap minimum for TE). Next, I use a two-year rolling window to compare “Apples to Oranges” by looking at a player’s year-end total from only one year. The comparison of present and future “Weekly Value” is what we are revealing statistically.
Firstly, a player’s highest game is removed from consideration. Next, only about one-third of a player’s full games over the past two seasons combined are considered in the calculations. Finally, TEs are graded with a typical Points Per Game (PPR) scoring system with 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards gained, and 6 points for any touchdown. In addition, two points are deducted for each lost fumble.
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TE WEEKLY VALUES AFTER 2021
Three players at the TE position have distanced themselves from the rest in Weekly Value for Fantasy Football. Travis Kelce is still on top but only by 0.6 of a point over Mark Andrews, with George Kittle another 0.3 back in third place. Playing injured last season hurt Darren Waller’s Weekly Value, and he drops to 4th place, 1.9 points behind Kelce.
Both Weekly Value and Consistency drop off sharply after the top four, with Gronkowski, Goedert, Knox, Schultz, FIrkser, Pitts, and Hockenson rounding out the top ten. Only two players hit the 10 point PPR floor in more than 70% of their games over the past two seasons combined, showing how thin it is at the top at this position.
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| Player | Team | Best 10 | Consistency | Age | 21 Total | PPG | 21ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelce | KC | 24.7 | 84 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrews | Bal | 24.4 | 68 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Kittle | SF | 24.1 | 59 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Waller | LV | 22.8 | 73 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 2 |
| Gronk | TB | 20 | 58 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| Goedert | PHL | 19.1 | 50 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Knox | Buf | 18.2 | 35 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 33 |
| Schultz | Dal | 18.2 | 49 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 41 |
| Firkser | TN | 17.7 | 56 | 27 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| Pitts | Atl | 17.6 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| Hockenson | Det | 17.6 | 64 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 6 |
| Gesecki | Mia | 17.3 | 38 | 27 | 9 | 15 | 12 |
| Fant | Den | 17.1 | 40 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| L Thomas | WAS | 17 | 62 | 31 | 44 | 17 | 7 |
| Uzomah | Cin | 16.6 | 22 | 29 | 19 | 22 | 43 |
| Friermuth | Pit | 16.3 | 50 | 24 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
| Henry | NE | 16 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 14 | 16 |
| Conklin | Min | 15.5 | 25 | 27 | 16 | 19 | 50 |
| Tonyan | GB | 15.3 | 52 | 28 | 48 | 28 | 8 |
| Ertz | AZ | 15.3 | 41 | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| Higbee | LAR | 15.3 | 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Njoku | Cle | 15 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 45 |
| Howard | TB | 14.3 | 43 | 28 | 62 | 70 | 26 |
| Everett | Sea | 13.8 | 37 | 28 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Allie-Cox | Ind | 13.8 | 19 | 29 | 27 | 37 | 42 |
| J Cook | LAC | 13.7 | 54 | 35 | 18 | 21 | 15 |
| J Johnson | NO | 13.5 | 50 | 26 | 45 | 52 | 30 |
| Arnold | Jax | 13.4 | 35 | 27 | 31 | 25 | 37 |
| Moreau | LV | 13.3 | 40 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 50 |
| Kmet | Chi | 13 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 24 |
| Deguera | GB | 13 | 29 | 25 | 40 | 51 | 39 |
| Seals-Jones | WAS | 13 | 22 | 27 | 34 | 33 | 50 |
| Hooper | Cle | 12.8 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| Kroft | NYJ | 12.7 | 23 | 30 | 57 | 41 | 50 |
| J Smith | NE | 12.5 | 41 | 27 | 35 | 43 | 14 |
| B Jordan | Hou | 12.5 | 50 | 22 | 43 | 29 | 50 |
| Engram | NYG | 12.4 | 36 | 28 | 23 | 24 | 18 |
| Hurst | Atl | 12.3 | 40 | 29 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| Parham | LAC | 12 | 25 | 25 | 42 | 46 | 46 |
| Trautman | NO | 12 | 11 | 25 | 37 | 36 | 25 |
| Swaim | TN | 12 | 14 | 31 | 33 | 42 | 50 |
| Bryant | Cle | 10.6 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 50 | 50 |
| Doyle | Ind | 10.4 | 8 | 32 | 30 | 40 | 50 |
| Brate | TB | 10 | 8 | 31 | 28 | 38 | 50 |
| O'Shaughnessy | Jax | 10 | 33 | 31 | 51 | 26 | 50 |
| Sample | Cin | 9.2 | 14 | 26 | 74 | 86 | 50 |
| Griffin | NYJ | 9 | 6 | 32 | 38 | 39 | 50 |
| Tremble | Car | 8 | 9 | 22 | 46 | 59 | 50 |
| I Thomas | Car | 6.4 | 0 | 27 | 59 | 67 | 50 |
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MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN YEAR-END TOTALS
The injury to Darren Waller cost him a better season when it comes to Year-End Points. While Waller finished TE4 in Weekly Value, he was only 17th in Year-End Points and 6th in Points Per Game. Dalton Schultz was a quality sleeper at TE last season, finishing TE9 in Weekly Value which was 33 spots higher than his ADP. But his inflated Year-End Points of 3rd shows us that Year End Points mainly tell us who stayed healthy the most games! Zach Ertz’s low consistency of 41% of hitting his 10 point PPR floor dropped him to TE20 in Weekly Value but playing an entire season inflated his Year-End Points to TE5.
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2021 WEEKLY VALUE REVIEW TE AND COMPARISON TO AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION
Quite often, the Consensus in Fantasy Football is wrong. This idea isn’t isolated to Fantasy Sports either it applies to any sport. In horse racing, we call the “Consensus” the betting favorite. People who are risking good money telling you who the best horse in the field is are wrong 2 out of every three races. Therefore, don’t be afraid to go against the Consensus.
Mark Andrews was drafted at an ADP of TE5 but became one of the elite TEs in Fantasy Football, finishing TE1 in Year-End Points and Points Per Game and TE2 in weekly Value. Because you got him 4-6 rounds later than Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, he was a league winner for many.
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Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz were ignored in the Fantasy Football draft last season, ending up TE33 and TE41, respectively, yet ending the season as Top 10 values based on Weekly Value, Year-End Points, and Points per Game. But their low consistency of hitting that 10 point PPR floor is one reason they are only late-round TE choices if you miss the studs earlier in the draft.
Kyle Pitts had one of the best seasons for a rookie TE ever! His 1026 yards were the second-best by a rookie TE to a guy named Mike Ditka, who managed to post 1076 yards in only 14 games way back in 1961. Despite that near-record performance, he couldn’t live up to his ADP of TE5. Pitts finished TE6 in Year-End Points, TE11 in Points per Game, and TE10 in Weekly Value. Pitts only scored one TD all season which hurt his consistency and total points. Look for a massive jump in weekly Value this season.
TJ Hockenson was another TE who underwhelmed his supporters last season. Drafted at an ADP of TE6, he struggled with injuries all season, missing time and finishing TE15 in Year-End Points, TE7 in Points per Game, and TE10 in Weekly Value. However, his Weekly Value jumped by 31% in one year so I would expect another similar increase for 2022.
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GAINING WEEKLY VALUE
Dawson Knox had the most significant increase in weekly Value, but he started at an anemic 9.4 for TE46. His 94% increase shows what happens when a player gets a massive boost in opportunity. However, Buffalo added more talent at TE and WR already in the offseason, so his future is uncertain.
Anthony Firkser also saw a massive increase of 77% in weekly Value, but like Knox, he was starting at a very low 10.0 for TE44 Value. However, his 56% consistent hitting on a 10 point PPR floor makes him an intriguing cheap option in Dynasty formats. Consider Firkser a last-round pick in redraft and best ball.
Dalton Schultz (56%), CJ Uzomah (54%), and TJ Hockenson (31%) were the only other TEs finishing in the Top 20 in Weekly Value that saw an increase of more than 30%. On the other hand, Mark Andrews, who was the darling of Fantasy Football at TE last year, only increased by 13%, showing that Weekly Value already had him pointed out as an elite TE.
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LOSING WEEKLY VALUE
Austin Hooper led all TEs in percentage drop weekly value at 23%. Cameron Brate (18%) and Jared Cook (15%) also saw a drop of over 15% in one year. Evan Engram (14%), Zach Ertz (12%), Haydon Hurst (12%), and Johnu Smith (11%) were the only other TEs exceeding a 10% drop. This result shows how “Sticky” the weekly value statistical tool is from year to year once a player establishes his Value.
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2021 WEEKLY VALUE REVIEW WR CONCLUSION
Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so we need to find better ways to establish a player’s weekly Value. My weekly value tool, Best 10, was based on over 30 years of data analysis. I worked on my research to learn how stats are scored every week, affecting fantasy football wins and losses.
Weekly values better show us who had the most significant impact on our Fantasy teams versus Year-End Points, which only tell us who stayed healthy! Improperly used Points per Game are just as bad unless we only look at full games. Best ten attempts to combine prominent game ability with consistency to come up with an easy to compare number among players.
Today we learned just how “Sticky” the weekly value statistical tool is from year to year at the TE position. Weekly Value also did a great job showing that Mark Andrews had already established himself as an up-and-coming elite TE. Note that an entire season of data showed the prediction was accurate. Over the years, the Weekly Value tool has been ahead of the curve in predicting TE success with George Kittle and Darren Waller, other guys that lived up to the weekly value hype from the year before.
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Don’t forget to listen to the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast every week and check out Professor John Bush’s lesson plans at the Professor’s Classroom here at Fakepigskin that dig deep into statistical evaluation.
