NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 17

Welcome to Week 17, Season Nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week, there were very few surprises when it came to division matchups.  If anything, there seemed to be more blowouts this past week than anything else.  That being said, don’t let one week make your forgot what the Saints did to the Buccaneers just one week prior.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

• Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team
• Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
• Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
• Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

The prime time hot streak continues, even though prime time matchups will start winding down as we near the playoffs.  On Thursday we had a game decided by a field goal, followed by a Saturday where one game was decided by two points and the other by six.  While Sunday and Monday weren’t exactly thrillers, three of five isn’t half bad!

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

• Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
• Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  
  

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Two weeks ago, we saw the Lions beat the Cardinals in Detroit.  This past week, we saw the Texans dominate the Chargers in Houston.  Who knows what home field advantage will bring this week?   

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

• Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets
• Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team
• Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
• Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

• New England Patriots over the Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Patriots somehow lose this game, their playoff aspirations could be on life support.  After a tough loss to the Bills last week, I don’t see any scenario where the Pats drop this one at home.

Alternate picks of the week:

• Buffalo Bills over the Atlanta Falcons

Now sitting atop the AFC East, the Bills just need to win out to clench the division.  If they can take care of the Patriots in New England, they should have no trouble with Atlanta back home in Buffalo.

• San Francisco 49ers over the Houston Texans

On one side is a team needing to win to keep their grasp on the playoffs, on the other side is a team that is better off with a higher draft pick.  While the Texans looked dominant against the Chargers last week, I don’t expect lightning to strike twice here.

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 33-14-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!