Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5. Every data point changes the forecast, whether forecasted is the weather, futures markets, horse races, or fantasy football. After four weeks of data, some trends are starting to come into play, and injuries force teams to adjust. Teams also have four weeks of new game films of opposing offenses and defenses. Therefore, this is the time of the year we sometimes see significant changes in Fantasy production. However, since the data set for Weekly Values goes back to 2019, I adjusted by using the weight of the current seasonal data. Thus, I propose that these values are an excellent data stream for forecasting the future for week 5 in Fantasy Football.
TE Value in Fantasy Football
After four weeks of the 2021 season, there is enough data to make a bold statement. During the pre-season, the discussion among Fantasy Football analysts was “Who would join the Elite 4 at TE in 2021?” Instead of seeing additions, we have witnessed subtractions. It is now clear that we ONLY have two elite tight ends in Fantasy Football (Kelce and Waller). Interestingly, I do acknowledge that Dalton Schultz is getting “real” volume. Additionally, his weekly value has risen to ninth place should continue at that level or slightly above. Let’s take a look at the TE numbers.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|
| Kelce | 24.6 | 89 |
| Waller | 24.3 | 72 |
| Kittle | 20.3 | 69 |
| Andrews | 20 | 65 |
| Gronk | 19.7 | 50 |
| Hockenson | 19 | 44 |
| Higbee | 18.8 | 35 |
| Gesecki | 18.4 | 39 |
| Schultz | 17.8 | 40 |
| Ertz | 17.4 | 48 |
| Fant | 16.7 | 33 |
| Hooper | 16.1 | 53 |
| J Cook | 15.9 | 70 |
| Goedert | 15.7 | 46 |
| Tonyan | 14.8 | 56 |
| Thomas | 14.4 | 59 |
| Henry | 14.3 | 60 |
| Conklin | 14.3 | 13 |
| J Smith | 14 | 42 |
| Engram | 13.8 | 46 |
| Pitts | 13.7 | 50 |
| Allie-Cox | 12.8 | 20 |
| Everett | 12.7 | 39 |
| Knox | 12.2 | 23 |
| Dissly | 12 | 29 |
| Williams | 10.2 | 14 |
| Doyle | 10.1 | 19 |
| Jarwin | 9.3 | 27 |
| Njoku | 9.2 | 29 |
| Kmet | 8.4 | 14 |
WR Value in Fantasy Football
Since the Weekly Values for any position needs a reliable data set to make solid decisions, the rookie WRs are often undervalued until they have 6-8 games of data to judge. But after four weeks, it’s clear that the usual studs are behaving like studs already. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are head and shoulders above the rest due to their ability to produce those colossal week-winning games. Don’t let one bad game sour you on Mike Williams he is still a solid WR play at 25th on an offense that should continue to pay off big. Additionally, Terry McLaurin continues his rise to the top, currently tied for 13th best with Keenan Allen. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
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| Player | Best 10 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|
| Adams | 31.1 | 87 |
| Hill | 31 | 90 |
| Kupp | 28.8 | 77 |
| Lockett | 28.2 | 60 |
| Evans | 26.7 | 72 |
| Hopkins | 26 | 80 |
| Godwin | 25.9 | 77 |
| Thielan | 25.8 | 63 |
| Diggs | 25.1 | 80 |
| Cooper | 24.9 | 71 |
| Jefferson | 24.6 | 74 |
| K Allen | 24.1 | 82 |
| McLaurin | 24.1 | 73 |
| Ridley | 23.9 | 84 |
| J Jones | 23.4 | 80 |
| AJ Brown | 23.3 | 67 |
| M Jones | 23.3 | 53 |
| Samuel | 23.1 | 65 |
| DJ Moore | 22.9 | 76 |
| A Robinson | 22.7 | 78 |
| Woods | 22.4 | 62 |
| Metcalf | 22.1 | 74 |
| Crowder | 21.9 | 59 |
| B Cooks | 21.9 | 58 |
| M Williams | 21.9 | 49 |
| D Johnson | 21.4 | 66 |
| Fuller | 21.3 | 62 |
| Boyd | 21 | 68 |
| Shephard | 20.9 | 73 |
| Sutton | 20.7 | 57 |
| Golladay | 20.6 | 79 |
| C Davis | 20.2 | 42 |
| Sanders | 20 | 59 |
| J Chase | 19.8 | 100 |
| Parker | 19.6 | 77 |
| Aiyuk | 19.6 | 60 |
| M Brown | 19.6 | 53 |
| Higgins | 19.3 | 71 |
| Lamb | 19.3 | 68 |
| Green | 19.2 | 60 |
| Beasley | 19.1 | 65 |
| Schuster-Smith | 19.1 | 55 |
| Anderson | 18.4 | 56 |
| Claypool | 18.3 | 61 |
| An Brown | 18 | 80 |
| Renfrow | 17.9 | 50 |
| D Smith | 17.8 | 50 |
| Slayton | 17.8 | 48 |
| Agholor | 17.8 | 38 |
| Beckham | 17.4 | 67 |
| Pascal | 17.3 | 37 |
| Waddle | 16.6 | 67 |
| Cobb | 16.5 | 50 |
| E Moore | 16.5 | 0 |
| Gage | 16.1 | 54 |
| Meyers | 16.1 | 50 |
| R Moore | 15.7 | 67 |
| MVS | 15.7 | 27 |
| Pittman | 15.6 | 29 |
| Raymond | 15 | 57 |
| Shenaut | 14.7 | 59 |
| Patrick | 14.4 | 48 |
| Ruggs | 14.3 | 24 |
| Mooney | 14.2 | 37 |
| Hardman | 14.1 | 54 |
| Swain | 14 | 67 |
| Toney | 13.9 | 50 |
| Cephus | 13.8 | 46 |
| T Marshall | 13.8 | 0 |
| G Davis | 13.7 | 47 |
RB Value in Fantasy Football
After four weeks, we continue to see running backs getting hurt and replacement decisions having to be made. While the weekly values at RB can help, it’s always good to remember that a replacement is not likely to play at the same level as the starter. Expecting around 80% of the starter’s value is a good rule of thumb IF the replacement will get a similar volume. One massive injury this week is David Montgomery. Looking at past stats, we can expect Damien Williams to have a weekly value around 17.8 versus Monty’s value of 23.1 or around RB32 level. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|
| CMC | 33.7 | 91 |
| Henry | 32.9 | 80 |
| A Jones | 30.7 | 79 |
| Kamara | 29.5 | 88 |
| Cook | 27.8 | 94 |
| Ekeler | 26.2 | 90 |
| Barkley | 26 | 67 |
| J Robinson | 24 | 89 |
| Elliott | 24 | 80 |
| Chubb | 23.5 | 81 |
| Montgomery | 23.1 | 61 |
| Swift | 22 | 81 |
| Jacobs | 22 | 77 |
| Taylor | 21.5 | 72 |
| Carson | 21 | 86 |
| M Gordon | 20.9 | 65 |
| Sanders | 20.8 | 59 |
| Mixon | 20.6 | 65 |
| Patterson | 20.3 | 44 |
| Drake | 20.2 | 58 |
| Fornette | 19.9 | 77 |
| K Hunt | 19.2 | 64 |
| J Williams | 18.7 | 54 |
| Gibson | 18.5 | 75 |
| Harris | 18.5 | 67 |
| CEH | 18.4 | 77 |
| Hubbard | 18.1 | 100 |
| D Johnson | 18 | 77 |
| McKissic | 18 | 50 |
| Ingram | 17.9 | 68 |
| M Davis | 17.9 | 60 |
| D Henderson | 17.2 | 47 |
| Edmunds | 17 | 65 |
| Pollard | 16.7 | 42 |
| Hines | 16.6 | 54 |
| J Williams | 16.2 | 25 |
| Gaskin | 15.8 | 80 |
| Michel | 15.8 | 56 |
| L Murray | 15.6 | 43 |
| Mattison | 15.5 | 60 |
| Singletary | 15.5 | 52 |
| Moss | 15 | 62 |
| R Jones | 14.3 | 67 |
| Gainwell | 13 | 100 |
| D Harris | 12.8 | 54 |
| M Carter | 12.7 | 50 |
| Sermon | 11.7 | 50 |
| T Williams | 10.3 | 66 |
| T Johnson | 9 | 13 |
QB Value in Fantasy Football
There were very few changes in the quarterback rankings after week 4. One QB that weekly values were much higher on to start the season now has weeks of data to crunch in the New Orleans offense. Jamies Winston drops to QB22, and that still might be too high. Matt Ryan is another QB whose value will drop as more 2021 data is weighted into his calculation. Jalen Hurts to rise, and the rookie QBs continue to underwhelm both on the field and in the Weekly Values. Trey Lance gets his first start this week, and I would guestimate his value around 90-100% of Jalen Hurts based on his rushing ability. That would rank Lance around QB14-22 this week. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|
| Mahomes | 42.3 | 78 |
| Wilson | 41 | 54 |
| J Allen | 40.6 | 51 |
| Brady | 40 | 53 |
| L Jackson | 39.9 | 65 |
| Prescott | 39.4 | 60 |
| Murray | 39.4 | 59 |
| Rodgers | 38 | 64 |
| Herbert | 36.3 | 63 |
| Tannehill | 34.9 | 53 |
| Ryan | 34.9 | 43 |
| Cousins | 34.3 | 54 |
| Stafford | 34.3 | 48 |
| Hurts | 33.3 | 50 |
| D Jones | 33 | 27 |
| Goff | 32.4 | 34 |
| Carr | 31.1 | 47 |
| Bridgewater | 30.6 | 36 |
| Jimmy G | 30.1 | 26 |
| Heinecke | 30 | 100 |
| Winston | 29.7 | 40 |
| Wentz | 29 | 34 |
| Darnold | 28.8 | 31 |
| Mayfield | 28.4 | 22 |
| Burrow | 27.8 | 50 |
| Big Ben | 27.5 | 36 |
| Brissett | 25.7 | 24 |
| Lawrence | 24.3 | 25 |
| M Jones | 24.1 | 0 |
| Z Wilson | 22.8 | 0 |
| Tua | 22 | 20 |
Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5 Putting Weekly Values to Work for You
Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5. The weekly values of players can be compared from one position to the other. For example, suppose I was deciding on a Flex starter for week five and was Leonard Fournette or Emmanuel Sanders to choose between. In that case, I could consult each player’s weekly value for comparison. For example, Fournette is rated at 19.9 with Sanders at 20 with Fournette’s consistency at 77 compared to 59 for Sanders.
Since the weekly values are so close, we need to look at the matchups this week. Professor John Bush has some great weekly data available in Fake_Pig_Skin to help with that task. Both have great matchups, so that I would go with Fournette based on his better Consistency Rating. If the Weekly Value is greater than 3-5 points, it’s an easy decision. Otherwise, you need to factor consistency and matchups into your final choice.
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Good luck in Week five, and for more help with your Fantasy Football success, check out the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast with John Bush and me.
