Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5. Every data point changes the forecast, whether forecasted is the weather, futures markets, horse races, or fantasy football. After four weeks of data, some trends are starting to come into play, and injuries force teams to adjust. Teams also have four weeks of new game films of opposing offenses and defenses. Therefore, this is the time of the year we sometimes see significant changes in Fantasy production. However, since the data set for Weekly Values goes back to 2019, I adjusted by using the weight of the current seasonal data. Thus, I propose that these values are an excellent data stream for forecasting the future for week 5 in Fantasy Football.

TE Value in Fantasy Football

After four weeks of the 2021 season, there is enough data to make a bold statement. During the pre-season, the discussion among Fantasy Football analysts was “Who would join the Elite 4 at TE in 2021?” Instead of seeing additions, we have witnessed subtractions. It is now clear that we ONLY have two elite tight ends in Fantasy Football (Kelce and Waller). Interestingly, I do acknowledge that Dalton Schultz is getting “real” volume. Additionally, his weekly value has risen to ninth place should continue at that level or slightly above. Let’s take a look at the TE numbers.

PlayerBest 10Consistency
Kelce24.689
Waller24.372
Kittle20.369
Andrews2065
Gronk19.750
Hockenson1944
Higbee18.835
Gesecki18.439
Schultz17.840
Ertz17.448
Fant16.733
Hooper16.153
J Cook15.970
Goedert15.746
Tonyan14.856
Thomas14.459
Henry14.360
Conklin14.313
J Smith1442
Engram13.846
Pitts13.750
Allie-Cox12.820
Everett12.739
Knox12.223
Dissly1229
Williams10.214
Doyle10.119
Jarwin9.327
Njoku9.229
Kmet8.414

WR Value in Fantasy Football

Since the Weekly Values for any position needs a reliable data set to make solid decisions, the rookie WRs are often undervalued until they have 6-8 games of data to judge. But after four weeks, it’s clear that the usual studs are behaving like studs already. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are head and shoulders above the rest due to their ability to produce those colossal week-winning games. Don’t let one bad game sour you on Mike Williams he is still a solid WR play at 25th on an offense that should continue to pay off big. Additionally, Terry McLaurin continues his rise to the top, currently tied for 13th best with Keenan Allen. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

PlayerBest 10Consistency
Adams31.187
Hill3190
Kupp28.877
Lockett28.260
Evans26.772
Hopkins2680
Godwin25.977
Thielan25.863
Diggs25.180
Cooper24.971
Jefferson24.674
K Allen24.182
McLaurin24.173
Ridley23.984
J Jones23.480
AJ Brown23.367
M Jones23.353
Samuel23.165
DJ Moore22.976
A Robinson22.778
Woods22.462
Metcalf22.174
Crowder21.959
B Cooks21.958
M Williams21.949
D Johnson21.466
Fuller21.362
Boyd2168
Shephard20.973
Sutton20.757
Golladay20.679
C Davis20.242
Sanders2059
J Chase19.8100
Parker19.677
Aiyuk19.660
M Brown19.653
Higgins19.371
Lamb19.368
Green19.260
Beasley19.165
Schuster-Smith19.155
Anderson18.456
Claypool18.361
An Brown1880
Renfrow17.950
D Smith17.850
Slayton17.848
Agholor17.838
Beckham17.467
Pascal17.337
Waddle16.667
Cobb16.550
E Moore16.50
Gage16.154
Meyers16.150
R Moore15.767
MVS15.727
Pittman15.629
Raymond1557
Shenaut14.759
Patrick14.448
Ruggs14.324
Mooney14.237
Hardman14.154
Swain1467
Toney13.950
Cephus13.846
T Marshall13.80
G Davis13.747

RB Value in Fantasy Football

After four weeks, we continue to see running backs getting hurt and replacement decisions having to be made. While the weekly values at RB can help, it’s always good to remember that a replacement is not likely to play at the same level as the starter. Expecting around 80% of the starter’s value is a good rule of thumb IF the replacement will get a similar volume. One massive injury this week is David Montgomery. Looking at past stats, we can expect Damien Williams to have a weekly value around 17.8 versus Monty’s value of 23.1 or around RB32 level. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

PlayerBest 10Consistency
CMC33.791
Henry32.980
A Jones30.779
Kamara29.588
Cook27.894
Ekeler26.290
Barkley2667
J Robinson2489
Elliott2480
Chubb23.581
Montgomery23.161
Swift2281
Jacobs2277
Taylor21.572
Carson2186
M Gordon20.965
Sanders20.859
Mixon20.665
Patterson20.344
Drake20.258
Fornette19.977
K Hunt19.264
J Williams18.754
Gibson18.575
Harris18.567
CEH18.477
Hubbard18.1100
D Johnson1877
McKissic1850
Ingram17.968
M Davis17.960
D Henderson17.247
Edmunds1765
Pollard16.742
Hines16.654
J Williams16.225
Gaskin15.880
Michel15.856
L Murray15.643
Mattison15.560
Singletary15.552
Moss1562
R Jones14.367
Gainwell13100
D Harris12.854
M Carter12.750
Sermon11.750
T Williams10.366
T Johnson913

QB Value in Fantasy Football

There were very few changes in the quarterback rankings after week 4. One QB that weekly values were much higher on to start the season now has weeks of data to crunch in the New Orleans offense. Jamies Winston drops to QB22, and that still might be too high. Matt Ryan is another QB whose value will drop as more 2021 data is weighted into his calculation. Jalen Hurts to rise, and the rookie QBs continue to underwhelm both on the field and in the Weekly Values. Trey Lance gets his first start this week, and I would guestimate his value around 90-100% of Jalen Hurts based on his rushing ability. That would rank Lance around QB14-22 this week. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

PlayerBest 10Consistency
Mahomes42.378
Wilson4154
J Allen40.651
Brady4053
L Jackson39.965
Prescott39.460
Murray39.459
Rodgers3864
Herbert36.363
Tannehill34.953
Ryan34.943
Cousins34.354
Stafford34.348
Hurts33.350
D Jones3327
Goff32.434
Carr31.147
Bridgewater30.636
Jimmy G30.126
Heinecke30100
Winston29.740
Wentz2934
Darnold28.831
Mayfield28.422
Burrow27.850
Big Ben27.536
Brissett25.724
Lawrence24.325
M Jones24.10
Z Wilson22.80
Tua2220

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5 Putting Weekly Values to Work for You

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football Week 5. The weekly values of players can be compared from one position to the other. For example, suppose I was deciding on a Flex starter for week five and was Leonard Fournette or Emmanuel Sanders to choose between. In that case, I could consult each player’s weekly value for comparison. For example, Fournette is rated at 19.9 with Sanders at 20 with Fournette’s consistency at 77 compared to 59 for Sanders.

Since the weekly values are so close, we need to look at the matchups this week. Professor John Bush has some great weekly data available in Fake_Pig_Skin to help with that task. Both have great matchups, so that I would go with Fournette based on his better Consistency Rating. If the Weekly Value is greater than 3-5 points, it’s an easy decision. Otherwise, you need to factor consistency and matchups into your final choice.

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Good luck in Week five, and for more help with your Fantasy Football success, check out the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast with John Bush and me.


LINKS

Science of Fantasy Episode 7


https://www.fakepigskin.com/2021/10/09/target-and-attempts-report-week-4/

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