NFL Week 4 Picks and Props

Welcome to NFL Week 4 Picks and Props! Kyle and Aaron are feeling great after a hot Week 3. Aaron went a perfect 3-0 while Kyle went 2-1.

For Week 4, Kyle and Aaron are backing the same team for the first time this season. The guys also make picks in huge games including the Seahawks/49ers, Raiders/Chargers, and Cowboys/Panthers. Who are we targeting this week?

Kyle

Week: 2-1

Season: 8-3

Aaron

Week: 3-0

Season: 4-2

Kyle’s Week 3 Picks

New York Giants +7.5 at New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are the ultimate ping pong thus far this season. They rolled as Week 1 underdogs at home against The Packers, a side we backed in this column. The next week they caught far too many points against the Panthers, another win NBD. As you may notice, the sentiment seems to swing wildly based upon one performance.

This team has shown an elite ceiling but also a lower floor than some of the respect they are getting from Sportsbooks.

Say what you will about the Giants but they are simply getting too many points this week. New York is dealing some injuries out wide but this offense is starting to get healthier.

Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golloday and Evan Engram are a nice trio of options to complement QB Daniel Jones. While I am not expecting the Giants to get an outright win in New Orleans, I do think they can keep this game relatively close.

Pick: Giants +7.5

Washington Football Team -1.5 at Atlanta Falcons

This was one of my favorite games to target when the lines initially came out. Washington was a 2 or 2.5 point underdog against an Atlanta team that is a mess on both sides of the ball. Now the line has moved through zero and has the Falcons now 1.5 point home dogs. 

While the line movement towards Washington makes me feel great, the line as it currently sits is not as compelling. The good news is even at -1.5 Washington is taking 58% of the bets and 77% of the money.

The front four in Washington hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations thus far but still is loaded with talent. I expect Matt Ryan to be on the ground a lot on Sunday. I also expect Antonio Gibson to run all over the Falcons defense. Back the road team in this spot to cover the short number.

Pick: WFT -1.5 

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Las Vegas Raiders

Not sure many saw the AFC West playing out the way it has thus far this season. Both Las Vegas and Denver are sitting atop the division while the Chiefs are reeling at the bottom after losing to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Now the Chargers return home to face a Raiders team that has been among the most impressive teams through the first handful of weeks. Derek Carr is playing like an MVP candidate with a dynamic offense. 

But I am going to back the home team in this spot. I think the Chargers defense will be the toughest competition to date. The Chargers offensively look revitalized with Mike WIlliams finally playing the role he is meant to play.

I expect this game to provide some real answers about this division. While some may peg this as a let down spot for Los Angeles after a massive road win in Kansas City, I expect a max effort against an undefeated division rival.

Take the home team minus the field goal on Monday Night. The Chargers are for real and will be a real problem down the stretch assuming everyone can stay healthy.

Pick: Chargers -3  

Aaron’s Week 3 Picks

Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. Carolina Panthers

I think this is overvaluing the 3-0 Panthers far too much. Dallas has looked very strong on the defensive side of the ball and their offense is getting better by the week. Dallas’ defensive numbers don’t look top tier because of garbage time, but they pass the eye test to me. The combination of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard should not be overlooked here with the insane aerial attack they possess. This is looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contending team right now.

The Panthers have also looked really good so far, but they just lost the best player in the NFL for a couple of weeks. Chuba Hubbard should fill in admirably, but I don’t think this team has the firepower to keep up with Dallas. The Boys could easily be 3-0 if they didn’t have to face the league leader in preparation week 1 (Tom Brady), so I’m taking the better team at home here to win by a score or more.

Pick: Cowboys -4

Seattle Seahawks +3 @ San Francisco 49ers

Anytime I can get points in a divisional matchup, with a well-coached team coming off a loss I’m taking those points. Couple that with the fact that the Seahawks aren’t traveling or on a short week, AND they are 1-2 fighting for their season… there’s no way Russel Wilson let’s this team lose (by more than a last second kick). 

Jimmy G has a ton of pressure on him to perform and the team is in constant flux between injuries and personnel changes. The Niners are a great team, so I wouldn’t necessarily take the Hawks to win straight up here… but I think it’s a 50-50 chance here. They have beaten the Lions and the struggling Eagles, then lost to the Packers. I don’t think they are elite enough to knock Seattle down to 1-3. Worst case in my opinion is a push here with the FG line.

Pick: Seahawks +3

New York Giants +7.5 @ New Orleans Saints

This one is purely based on New Orleans Offense, or the lack thereof since their week 1 explosion. The Giants offense has been able to put up some points, so I trust that they can keep this close. Sure, their receiving core is banged up, but that tells me Saquon Barkley will get a lot of work out of the backfield and he’s a big touchdown play waiting to happen. 

The Giants biggest weakness is their pass defense, which just so happens to be the Saints weakness on offense. Alvin Kamara has struggled to get much going with stacked boxes and Jameis Winston isn’t doing anything to force the defense back into pass coverage. The under here is set pretty low at 42, but I’m still leaning towards this game being in the 30’s. I see a 20-14 type game here so I’m taking the TD+ line with the team that’s shown some promise early in the season.

Pick: Giants +7.5

Good luck in NFL Week 4! Let’s hit some winners.

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