Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

By John Bush
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Updated: December 12, 2020

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

My SNAPs Report Snaps Report for this Week
My Targets and Touches Report Link to Targets and Touches Report

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Week 14 Team Average PPR Based Rankings

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 14 for fantasy are GB/SEA/KC/TB, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ/CIN/NYG/PHI/MIA/WAS/JAC/CLE for week 14, and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal DFS plays.

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Week 14 Team Rankings

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. I constructed this Bar graph to visualize teams’ pecking order in week 14 via scaled team rankings. Understanding the environment of a matchup must include a holistic view; see below. I do not recommend ignoring the team factor for your DFS 14 and line-ups.

As I have previous discussed, the visual landscapes of the metrics are superior to numbers. Also, I use colorization to bring home the rankings.

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Team Level Uncertainty Week 14

Week 14 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 14’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to IND/MIA/WAS/SF/TEN/SEA/BUF (Green Bold picks for some).

Additionally, I will be moving away from CLE/ATL/CIN/NYG/CHI/DET/BA/KC/PHI/DEN/JAC for DFS. In redrafts, the top players from these teams only. Beware of deeper plays.

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Week 13 Team Uncertainty Landscape

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. I use it as a resource for a visual view of lineups and DFS plays for week 14. Good for close choice separations. Tiebreakers. DFS gambles. Money to be made if you can find key longshots in shaky teams.

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Week 14 Team Rankings vs. Uncertainty Levels

I combined the 2 data streams to “see” power rankings vs. uncertainty landscape for week 14.

KC is highly ranked but more UNC than most think! CHI/DAL/PIT are other teams fairly highly ranked with higher UNC for week 14. Tricky business.

Additionally, sneaky gambles might be found in the low regarded teams but have low uncertainty. WAS, NYJ, LV, and MIA standout for me as a place to dig for DFS gamble nuggets!

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Graphical Plots of Team Rankings vs. Uncertainty for Week 14

Key Teams of note are by Green Stars WAS/MIA/SF/IND vs. Red Star Teams are KC/CHI/BAL.

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. The following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays. Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

Team
Players
HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
FSPR under their UNC level.
FSPR Ranking

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Defenses

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KICKERs

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 14 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable.

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing—tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 14 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 6 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Example Analysis- The Process GB vs. DET

We are in the high-scoring universe, and I expect these games are higher scoring and have good opportunities for PPR scoring.

GB vs. DET DAPS

The first game data is my Defense Against the Positions DAPs information. DAPs go from tough 0 to easy 100 + scores. I colorized as well to highlight easy vs. tough DAPs Green vs. Red.

Read this as the following:

When GB is on offense, they face a very easy DEF of 94/100. The GB RBs face a week 14 easy RB +115 DAP – Rack them up! Rodgers, Tonyan, and WRs get nice DAPs of 74/77/58. Tonyan gets an average game DAP, but his average has been nice lately.

When DET is going, they face a tougher 44/100 DAP, but the DET RBs get an 86 DAP. If you have Swift, you need him vs. easy DAPs! Stafford down Golladay will be all hands on deck as they face +38/15/35. The tough script and I envision a passing bonanza for DET. The game script may earn some garage time points for Jones/Hockenson.

Scan the Team blocks looking at rankings and player UNC levels.

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Gaskins is out. Caution!

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Week 12 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 1 game that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.