Week 13 Targets and Touches

 

Week 13 Targets and Touches

Week 13 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Weeks 8 to 13 Team Target Averages 

Week 13 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! 

Additionally, I scaled the team target averages to the league average. How does each team stack-up to the league average?

Firstly, I colored the top teams with Green colorization. PIT/WAS/LAR/KC/LAC/TB/DAL/CHI/CAR are the top targeting teams.

Secondly, I note BAL/CLE/LV/TEN/MIA/NO/IND/NYJ/HOU/NYG are the lower targeting teams.

Move to the deeper WRs in the top teams and avoid fringe pass-catcher in the lower targeting teams. 

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Bar Graph of Weeks 8 to 12 Team Target Averages

Week 13 Targets and Touches. Visual landscapes allow deeper thinking **and are more memorial as you are playing Week 14 DFS and Lineups.

Learning Through Visuals | Psychology Today

A large body of research indicates that visual cues help us to better retrieve and remember information …. Words are abstract and rather difficult for the brain to retain, whereas visuals are concrete and, as such, more easily remembered.

FYI-The reason I add colorization to my number based tables to help visual learning. 

The Green Stars mark the Teams -PIT LAC TB ARI MIN MIA LV that have seen improvements in Targets in the last 3 weeks.  The Red Star teams have lost ground in team targets recently (caution) WAS LAR GB NE NO.

Week 13 Targets and Touches

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Team Target Efficiency Weeks 8 to 13

Week 13 Targets and Touches.  The Metrics are shown in the table below, which contains: 

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Team Name with High/Low Designations by color: 

  • Weekly Average (WK 8 to 13) of Team Target Efficiency. High to Low-Blue to Red

  • Total Average of Targeting Efficiency – Targets per Second. Green to Red 

  • Late vs Early DIFFs – Changes in the Last 3 weeks vs the previous 3 weeks. Looking at a 6-week time frame. 

  • 2 WK Diff. Changes in TGT Efficiency within the last 2 games played. 

Firstly, the top target efficiency teams-green stained- are  TB PIT LAC CHI WAS DET KC SF ARI. Some of these teams are lower targeting by seem to be more efficient. 

Secondly, the lower efficiency teams are NO BAL CLE LV NYG MIA ATL TEN. Caution

 

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Visual Landscapes of Targets and Efficiency

Week 13 Targets and Touches. I begin with establishing the high vs. low team efficiencies. Left vs. Right hand of the Bar Graph. Better moving to worse as you move left to right for Team TGT EFF. I also mark the recent changes in TGT EFF. What teams are improving or declining?

  • Green Star Teams – Improving Teams are TB/LAC/ARI/DAL/HOU/MIN/CIN/MIA/LV
  • Red Star Teams – Declining Teams KC/CAR/GB/NE/CLE/NO

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Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 8 to 13 Analysis.

Week 13 Targets and Touches. The metrics were sorted by TGT EFF Averages. The high targeting teams are stained with green vs. red for the low targeting teams.

Find the extremes.

  • DET/SF/ARI are lower TGT but nice EFF! 
  • DAL/CLE higher TGT but lower EFF! 
  • NYJ/GB/IND/NE/ATL Low TGT but best EFF of the lower Teams! 

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Graphical Plot of Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 8 to 13 Analysis.

Week 13 Targets and Touches. Teams sorted by EFF left to right best vs. worse.

Note the “Data Giraffes” that stand up above the herd. They are PIT/WAS/KC/DAL/LAR/BUF/NO

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Team Positional Player Week 8 to 13 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs – Tables and Graphical Views

Week 13 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player TGT Avg within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week  8 to 13                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                   ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                            ( High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Week DIFFs                                         ( High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will it be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme.  This is the time for deep consideration. Scan the metrics and immerse yourself in the graphs. Find the extremes. 

My Week 14 Rankings coming, FYI. 

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Week 13 Targets and Touches

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Running Back Touches with Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 13 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Weeks 8 to 13 RB Rushing Attempts and Averages

  • RB Biased Rushing Teams Stained GREEN -CLE/DAL/JAC/ARI/MIN/DEN. Standard Scoring League focuses on these Team’s RBs. 
  • RB Biased Pass-Catching Teams Stained RED –  SF/KC/SEA/PIT/PHI/BAL/ATL/CHI. PPR leagues focus the pass-catching Team Activities 
  • Note that DEN/NO/WAS/NYG/CHI/SEA/KC are teams on the recent improvement in their RB rushing more. Play these folks.
  • Additionally, the opposite teams declining in team rushing are ARI/DAL/TB/LV/CIN/ATL/BAL/PHI/MIA/HOU/MIN. 

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Graphical Viewing of Team Rushing Averages and Improvement/Declines

Green Stars remind us of the improving teams vs. red stars, the declining rushing teams. Consider the reasons and apply the needed caution for Week 14!

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Weeks 8 to 13 RB Pass-Catchers and Averages

  • The Top Teams with pass-catching RBs are green stained. WAS/LAC/ARI/TB/JAC/IND/CAR/GB
  • The Bottom Teams red-stained are TEN/ATL/BAL/NYG/LAR/LV/DEN/NYJ/PIT.

DIFFs point out that WAS/TB/CAR/GB/NO/DEN/BAL have declined caution.  On the other hand, LAC/ARI/IND/HOU/MIA/MIN/LV/TEN are improving teams. Look to move toward within PPR week 14. 

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Graphical Viewing of Team Rushing RB Targets and Improvement/Declines

Green Stars remind us of the improving teams vs. red stars, the declining rushing teams. Consider the reasons and apply the needed caution for Week 14!

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Analysis Summary

The table below lists the Rushing vs. Pass-Catching Team RBs. I present Team RB Average Rushing Attempts and Averages of Targets and ATTs vs. TGT ratios A/T. 

I sorted the team data by the A/T ratios. The High Rushing Teams fell-out at the top and are stained in purple.  Expect these teams to be rushing their RBs and not throwing much. Adjust Week 14 accordingly.

 


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Graphical Plots of Team RB Rush/Targets

The plot highlights the Teams high in rushing or targets -left to right. The pink line marks the Rushing Attempts Average. High above vs. Low Rushing below.  Extremes are clear, as are the more balanced teams in the middle of the plots. 

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Player Level Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Averages Within Teams

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching in their teams. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 8 to 13

  • Targets Weeks 8 to 13

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

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Focus on extremes. For Example, Drake vs. Edmonds with Drake is the clear RB1! Dobbins looking good in BAL. Dig deeper for your playoffs. I would stock up on handcuffs while trimming the bottom of your roster. Run the next week’s forward and eject all players not expected to play for your team. 

Gurley??? Drake High Variation? Dobbins needs more! Moss declining? 

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TEAM Player RB Rush/Target Averages WK 8 to 13

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass RB Players and Sorted all teams by Team Rushing Attempts. Next, I note extreme in RB ratios.  Finally, use these metrics for actionable data for Week 14 DFS.

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Graphical Plots for TEAM Player RB Rush/Target Averages WK 8 to 13

Visual landscapes for a quick scan. Locate the interesting players. Get ready for the playoffs. 

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Final Process

I go through all these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Week 13 Targets and Touches.

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