Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 13 Team Average PPR Based Rankings 

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

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(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 13 for fantasy are KC/SEA/LAR/PIT/GB/MIN/IND, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are CIN/NYJ/NE/DEN/JAC for week 13, and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal DFS plays.

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Week 13 Team Rankings

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty.  I constructed this Bar graph to visualize teams’ pecking order in week 13 via scaled team rankings. Understanding the environment of a matchup must include a holistic view; see below. I do not recommend ignoring the team factor for your DFS 13 and line-ups. 

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Team Level Uncertainty Week 13

Week 13 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 13’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to MIA/LAR/SF/PHI/IND/BUF/SEA (bold picks for some). 

Additionally, I will be moving away from CLE/NYJ/HOU/NYG/DET/JAC/NE for DFS.  In redrafts, the top players from these teams only. Beware of deeper plays.  

 

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Week 13 Team Uncertainty Landscape

I use it as a resource for a visual view of lineups and DFS plays for week 13. Good for close choice separations. 

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Week 13 Team Rankings vs. Uncertainty Levels

I combined the 2 data streams to “see” power rankings vs. uncertainty landscape for week 13. Red X are marking Teams highly thought of for week 13 but have higher uncertainty aspects to them this week, 

RED X Teams are KC/MIN/ATL/CLE/ARI

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty. The following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR under their UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking 

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Defenses

 Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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KICKERs

 Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Quarterbacks

 Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Running Backs

 

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Tight Ends

 Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty 

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Wide Receivers

 Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty 

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 13 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing—tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 13 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 8 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

 

Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Example Analysis- The Process

We are in the high-scoring universe, and I expect these games are higher scoring and have good opportunities for PPR scoring. 

DAPS

The first game data is my Defense Against the Positions DAPs information. DAPs go from tough 0 to easy 100 + scores. I colorized as well to highlight easy vs. tough DAPs Green vs. Red. 

Read this as the following:

When CLE is on offense, they get easy +61 Overall DAPs. Their RBs will be dealing with an average game at +53 while the passing game gets an easy environment of +63/58/86. Special focus on the TEs! 

When TEN is going they get an extremely easy situation vs an overall +90 DAP. Sweet! TEN gets the rushing Daps of 87 Henry all day long! The TEN passing gets 93/86/75 and I expect nice passing scores. Play all key players. The only issue is if TEN gets way ahead they shorten the game with heavy rushing. 

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Read the Team breakdown as rankings high green vs. low red and under the appropriate uncertainty level. Read Chubb, for example, as a 90 strong RB, but his UNC level is High. Given the match-up, his range of scoring will be extreme. Not a cash game DFS play! 

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Week 12 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 1 game that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.

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Week 12 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (44 total game points or less)

Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty. 4 Game predicted to be low scoring—caution in using players in here.  

 

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Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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