Week 12 Targets and Touches

 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

Week 12 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Weeks 7 to 12 Team Target Averages 

Week 12 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! 

Additionally, I scaled the team target averages to the league average. How does each team stack-up to the league average?

Firstly, I colored the top teams with Green colorization. PIT/LAC/LAR/TB/KC/CHI/CIN are the top targeting teams.

Secondly, I note MIA/BAL/TEB/CLE/NO/IND/NYJ are the lower targeting teams.

Move to the deeper WRs in the top teams and avoid fringe pass-catcher in the lower targeting teams. 

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Bar Graph of Weeks 7 to 12 Team Target Averages

Visual landscapes allow deeper thinking **Cand are more memorial as you are playing Week 13 DFS and Lineups.

Learning Through Visuals | Psychology Today

A large body of research indicates that visual cues help us to better retrieve and remember information …. Words are abstract and rather difficult for the brain to retain, whereas visuals are concrete and, as such, more easily remembered.

FYI-The reason I add colorization to my number tables to help visual learning. 

 

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Teams Weeks 7 to 12 Differences Late vs Early and Differences Last 2 Games Played

Week 12 Targets and Touches. I sorted the Late vs. Early Differences in Team Targeting Averages of Weeks 10 to 12 vs. Weeks 7 to 9. See the longer changes within each team. The Table is sorted by the Late vs. Early Differences. MIN/PIT/LAC/MIA/KC/TB have improved while HOU/CLE/TEN/DEN/CIN/SEA/NO have declined in targets. 

The most recent changes are purple colorized improving teams of NYG/SF/BUF/CHI/MIN/LV/DAL vs. the declining teams of TB/CIN/DEN/NO/LAR. Caution! 

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Bar Graph of Team Scaled Target Averages Weeks 7 to 12 Differences

Week 12 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below.  Visual views seem to stay with me more than columns of numbers. I focus on our information on the differences. 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week? 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

I noted the left hand vs. right-hand teams as to targeting. I also noted improving vs. declining teams. Move toward the improving teams on the left side of the graph. 

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Team Target Efficiency Weeks 7 to 12

Week 12 Targets and Touches.  The Metrics are shown in the table below, which contains: 

Team Name with High/Low Designations by color: 

  • Weekly Average of Team Target Efficiency. High to Low-Blue to Red
  • Total Average of Targeting Efficiency – Targets per Second. 

Firstly, the top target efficiency teams-green stained- are TB/CHI/PIT/PHI/DEN/DET/LAC/JAX. Some of these teams are lower targeting by seem to be more efficient. 

Secondly, the lower efficiency teams are BAL/NO/LV?MIA/CLE/ATL/TEN/MIN/BUF/NYG/IND. Caution

 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

 

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Visual Landscapes of Targets and Efficiency

Week 12 Targets and Touches. I begin with establishing the high vs. low team efficiencies. Left vs. Right hand of the Bar Graph. Better moving to worse as you move left to right. 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Summary Team Late vs. Early/2 Week of Targeting Efficiency Differences

Week 12 Targets and Touches. Again, I sorted by the 6-week differences to spot the longer trends. Tannehill has improved the best of all 32 teams in his targeting efficiency! I have grabbed him for the playoffs!  SEA/CIN?DET/WAS/KC are also doing well. Some QBs have been dismissed too soon? 

Cautions for JAX/NYG/NO/ARI/LAR/DEN/HOU. ARI/NO/HOU-injury issues. I maintained the original TGT EFF colorization. Thus TEN has been poor in EFF but has improved recently! 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Graphical Analysis of Team Late vs Early/2 Week of Targeting Efficiency Differences

Week 12 Targets and Touches. Move left to right for the longer improving trend teams to the declining teams.

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 7 to 12 Analysis.

Week 12 Targets and Touches. The metrics were sorted by TGT EFF Avg. I note the High/High Teams are TB/CHI/PIT – Key Teams?

The caution team are the Low/Low Teams of TEN/CLE/MIA/LV/NO/BAL. TEN has improved-MIA may get Fitz Majic Passing-LV loves to rush (Booker)-NO has Hill now Low Passing-BAL may be using a more passing friend 3rd String QB! 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Graphical Plot of Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 7 to 12 Analysis.

Week 12 Targets and Touches. Teams sorted by EFF left to right best vs. worse. Note the “Data Giraffes” that stand up above the herd. They are PIT/LAC/LAR/CIN/KC/TB/CHI

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Positional Analysis within Teams (WKs 7 to 12).

The following pairs of figures are the tabular data. 

The tables include:

  • Team
  • Position
  • TGT AVG
  • TGT EFF
  • %T which is the Targeting Share within the Team
  • Scaled TGT EFF is the EFF Scores compared to the highest Positional EFF

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Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Graphical Plot of Positional Analysis within Teams (WKs 7 to 12).

Visually imprints the information needed for WK 13. ARI does not use its TE much :(! 

Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Team Positional Player Week 7 to 12 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 12 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                            ( High to Low -Blue to Red)
  • Targets Week  7 to 12                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                   ( High to Low – Purple to Yellow)
  • Target Effs                                             ( High to Low -Blue to Red)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. 

My Week 13 Rankings coming, FYI. 

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Week 12 Targets and Touches

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Player Positional Based Wk 7 to 12 Target Averages and EFF

Move to High Targeted Player with High EFF. I sorted the following by Position TGT EFF. Roll down the tabular list to find surprises for your WK 13 DFS/Lineup Gambles. NOTE Gaskins is 3rd for a surprise finding etc. 

 

Running Backs

 

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Tight Ends

 

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Wide Receivers

 

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Running Back Touches with Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 12 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Weeks 7 to 12 RB Rushing Attempts and Averages

 RB Biased Rushing Teams Stained GREEN – CLE/JAC/DAL/ARI/MIN/GB/IND/WAS/TB/NO/DEN/TEN. Standard Scoring League focuses on these RBs. 

RB Biased Pass-Catching Teams Stained RED – KC/SEA/CHI/SF/PHI/PIT/NE/NYG/MIA/CIN/CAR/ATL. PPR leagues focus the pass-catching Team Activities 

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Weeks 7 to 12 RB Pass-Catchers and Averages

Pass-Catching Teams Stained GREEN –  WAS/TB/LAC//JAC/ARI/IND/NO/GB/CHI/DET/CAR/HOU

Low Pass-Catching Teams Stained RED – TEN/BAL/TL/MIN/LAR/PIT/LV/MIA/NYG/DEN/SF

 

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Analysis

The table below lists the Rushing vs. Pass-Catching Team RBs. I present Team RB Average Rushing Attempts and Averages of Targets.

I marked the top/bottom of teams in AA vs. AT with green X and red Z.

Additionally, Colorized the High/High AA/AT with Green. These teams are WAS/TB/JAC/ARI/IND/NO/GB.

The Low/Low teams stained in Red are ATL/PIT/MIA/NYG/SF.

 

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Graphical Plots of TEAM RB Rush/Target Analysis

Use to consider the Team extremes in RB activity. 

 

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Averages Tables

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 7 to 12

  • Targets Weeks 7 to 12

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

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Focus on extremes. For Example, Drake vs. Edmonds with Drake is the clear RB1! Dobbins looking good in BAL. Dig deeper for your playoffs. I would stock up on handcuffs while trimming the bottom of your roster. Run the next week’s forward and eject all players not expected to play for your team. 

 

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TEAM Player RB Rush/Target Averages WK 7 to 12

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass RB Players and Sorted all teams by Team Rushing Attempts. Next, I note extreme in RB ratios.  Finally, use these metrics for actionable data for Week 13 DFS.

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Graphical Plots for TEAM Player RB Rush/Target Averages WK 7 to 12

Visual landscapes for a quick scan. Locate the interesting players. Get ready for the playoffs. 

 

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RBs ATT/TGT Average Ratios WK 7 to 12

The final tables are a summary based on a player’s ATT vs. TGT. What players are Rush biased or pass-catcher only. Find balanced players as well. Extremes have value in DFS gambles! 

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Final Process

I go through all these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Week 12 Targets and Touches.

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