Week 13 boasts a 12-game slate, with 7 teams projected for 26+ implied team points. 5 teams are +7 point favorites including MIA, SEA, MIN, GB and LVR. Notable news here: Will Fuller has been suspended for PED, WAS/PIT PPD and Jonnu Smith has been ruled out. As with most weeks, Tight End is a complete wasteland. I’m prioritizing workhorse running back here and punting at WR and TE. So yeah… let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Kirk Cousins, $6400, Minnesota Vikings
4.9% projected ownership
It’s never fun clicking the little plus sign next to Kirk Cousins name and rostering him on DraftKings. He is seemingly always imploding on primetime games and he has no juice in the run game. Regardless of this reality, it’s important to consider the facts here. Cousins should have Thielen returning from the COVID-19 Reserve, the Vikings have the highest total on the slate (30.75 implied points), and the Jags have allowed the 2nd most touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks this season (23 TD passes allowed.) How do you not LIKE that??
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Let’s Get Weird QB:
Rivers, Trubisky, Mayfield
Derrick Henry, $9200, Tennessee Titans
7% projected ownership
“OK, campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties cause it’s cold out there. It’s cold out there every day.” Pardon the Groundhog Day reference, but I feel like I’m reliving last week again. Take a look at the Week 12 winning Millionaire Maker lineup and you’ll notice “pickedtherightscrub” faded a 42.95% Dalvin Cook in favor of Henry at a fraction of the ownership (6.44%). Early projected ownerships are looking eerily similar with Cooks at 30.75% and Henry at 7%. Both the Vikings and Titans team totals lead the slate with 30.75 and 29.5 respectively. King Henry seems to just get stronger in December too. In December, Henry historically has more attempts (281), more Y/G (88.9) and touchdowns (18). Just play Henry, Needlenose Ned!
Cook, Robinson, Montgomery(underweighting the field and going A-Rob if he’s healthy), Carson, Gaskin
Booker (massive chalk but more of a value play imo)
Let’s Get Weird RB:
Devante Parker, $6400, Miami Dolphins
8.1% projected ownership
Parker was brought back to life thanks to the return of Fitzmagic. Parker recorded new season-highs in terms of both yards (119) and targets (14) in Week 12. My interest in Parker here is quite reliant on the availability (or lack thereof), of rookie Tagovailoa. In games Tua has started in 2020, Parker has averaged 4 less DKPt/gm with his unwillingness to take shots on big plays. The matchup here is enticing too as the Bengals secondary has allowed the 4th most receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers (14). The Dolphins’ 26.5 total is not too shabby either. If Fitzpatrick starts under center, I like Parker. If Tua gets the start, the Dolphins DST becomes my preferred play for Miami. Fins up!
Cooks (i’m eating the chalk here), Jefferson
A.J. Brown, Adams, Metcalf, Robinson
Let’s Get Weird WR:
Anthony Firkser, $2500, Tennessee Titans
25.7% projected ownership
With Jonnu Smith being ruled out, Anthony Firkser becomes insta-chalk as an every-down TE for a team with a 29.5 total and facing a team that is tied for the second most TDs allowed to the position. In Week 6, when thrust into this same role, Firkser had a highly productive outing resulting in 8/113/1 (28.3 DKPt). The Browns’ defense allows an average of 15.7DKPt to opposing tight end (tied for 3rd most). At $2500, if Firkser can meet this average, will 6x his salary which is all you need to win the Milly Maker.
Tonyan, Rudolph, Gesicki, Ertz (too cheap at $3900)
MIN, MIA, ARI, CHI , LVR
(I’m likely just playing a handful of DST in my MME build Sunday)
(My preference in that order)