Thanksgiving Thursday Fights

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights.  This report uses Vegas/Defense Against the Positions (DAPs) Metrics, My Rankings (0 to 100), and Uncertainty Analysis (High, Average, or Low). Look for Highly Ranked Low UNC players in the right DAP environment. 

Also I have added the Team Level Analysis as well. Especially for your DFS games etc., I suggest your begin by framing the game environments at the Team level. 

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Vegas Views of the Two Games

Vegas suggests nice points to be scored and that is nice for Holiday gaming with DFS. Houston and Dallas are favored over Detroit and Washington but not by much. High scoring games suggest not passing for your PPR leagues as well. 

Slide1

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Team Uncertainty Levels

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights.  I use my uncertainty metrics to produce a simple Team UNC Ratio which is H+A/L.

The lower scores point to a Team whose players are going to be lower uncertainty in their productions and rankings. I expect these teams to be easier to predict using player rankings.  

The higher scores highlight teams whose players have a high level of uncertainty levels. Caution is suggested for these teams. The range of outcomes can be very broad. 

HOU vs. DET are the higher uncertainty teams. Note Vegas “sees” this as well and this game figure to be higher scoring but a broader range of possible scoring. DFS gambles?

DAL vs. WAS figures to be more “by the book and predictable” as both teams have lower uncertainty. DFS Cash Plays? 

Slide1

 

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Team Rankings

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. I also calculate my Team level rankings much like the so-called power rankings. I rank DAL>HOU>WAS>DET in terms of overall rankings. My rankings usually go from 0 to 100 and the Week’s averages are near 43 so DAL is +6 above average vs DET is -5 below. 

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Uncertainty vs Rankings

I also like to see both Team Landscapes as well. Remember that many biases exists and consider taking the first impression of multiple data sources can be tricky. I suggest developing a story and then try to knock it down. The level of mental effort to knock down a story may correlate to the strength of the original idea. What are the odds that we are wrong?

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All Decisions are Bets!  (Great Book and Podcast fyi in this world of thinking is Dr. Annie Dukes THINKING In BETs ) Learn to live with Uncertainty! We can not see all the information in fantasy football! 

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The two games are not close by my Rankings of -5 differences. One game has a low uncertainty while the other is much higher. I suggest in DFS use to be more or less cautious! 

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The initial story is DAL vs WAS is a lower uncertainty game but DAL has more uncertainty vs WAS yet is predicted by Vegas to win and my rankings agree. I suggest a game that I would have a higher confidence on many of the key players. 

The next game is not as straight forward because the level of uncertainty. DET figures to lose and is ranked below HOU! However, I suggest many will view this game as not straightforward. More gambles then in this game. The key players may have broader outcomes. 

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide4

 

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HOU vs DET Game

My Process is after I have a framework as shown above then I drill deeper into the game. 

Professor’s Process

  • Snaps Targets Touches Trends
  • Vegas View
  • Uncertainty Team Views
  • Team Ranking Views
  • DAPs
  • Player Rankings with Uncertainty

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HOUSTON TEXANS

Defense against the position (DAPS)

The Defense Against the Position (DAPS) metrics for this game are shown below. High Numbers (above 50) suggest an Easy situation for that position vs. Lower Numbers (below 50) suggests a Tough defense to that position.

The figure below highlights the “hot spots” for each team. These positions are the short rule of thumb for DFS and lineups for this week. 

Slide2

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Overall HOU gets an fairly easy DAP environment. +78/100     

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RUSHING. 

HOU RBs face a easy time RB DAP of +112. If this is week for multiple running back scores this is it. 

Given Duke’s track record I still was cautious as he has never seemed to take great advantage of the situation. He is a +68/100 but High UNC. It would not surprise me if the other weaker RBs collect a score or so instead. 

PASSING 

The HOU passing machine is going into a tougher DAP vs a +46, 68, and 58 for the QB WRs and TEs. 

Watson who has come on lately at 95 ranking low uncertainty. His lesser WRs (Stills and Cobb) are injured thus Cooks/Fuller will get the show but more DEF attention as well. I rate them at 80 and 70 but average uncertainty. They both can score 2Xs. Coutee would be a tricky play as the WR3 and have him at high UNC +29. 

The 2 TEs of Adkins and Fells have been ok but would seem to cost each other from their committee work. Adkins is the play at 37 Low UNC vs Fells at 6 high uncertainty based on talent. 

 

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Team/Positional/Player/Ranking and Uncertainty Analysis

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide10

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Detroit Lions

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide2

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DET gets an very easy DAP environment +99/100

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RUSHING. 

The Detroit RBs get a nice RB DAP to go against of  +100 and if Swift can play I rank him at 74 low UNC. He might have some injury issues thus I was conservative in my rankings. The others can also fall into the end-zone as well. 

PASSING

The Stafford Passing Show has High Uncertainty ranked at 52. He faces a very easy 87 DAP. The reason I am not confident for HOU is these easy DAPs. DET could surprise. TJH the TE is at an average UNC 100 vs a 67 TE DAP. He has great potential but did have some injury issues for concern. Sanu has as Golladay is not playing. Sanu could be used near red-zone? Marvin Jones and WRs fight into a 94 WR DAP and should collect PPR points.  Jones projects at the top WR at 67 High UNC Level. Hall is at low UNC 39 and can collect as well. The others can get a slice as well. 

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Team/Positional/Player/Ranking and Uncertainty Analysis

Slide9

 

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DAL vs WAS Game

Projects to be a safer? game for DFS. Lower Uncertainty but less scoring as the Vegas view. 

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DAL Cowboys

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide3

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DAL is favored but has to fight a tough +33/100 Overall DAP

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RUSHING. 

Zeke is ranked at AVG UNC 84 and is going into a +47 RB DAP. He should collect PPR goodness but its not expected to be a great day. A Zeke Average Day. I do note that Pollard can surprise at 32 Low UNC for a showdown gamble play only. 

PASSING.

Dalton faces off into a +62 QB DAP with seems ok but the DAL WRs will fight a tough +23 WR DAP. I ranked Dalton +32 High UNC level and I may be too cautious but Vegas was somewhat concerned. 

The WR trio are Cooper=Lamb>Gallup. I judge Cooper/Gallup at a High UNC situation ranked at 65 and 46. Lamb is at 60 Low UNC and seems to be the DFS Cash play. 

Finally, Schultz is ranked at 50 Low UNC and collects a score vs a +51 TE DAP. A typical TE gamble but has some juice with Dalton needing check-downs and red-zone plays. 

 

Team/Positional/Player/Ranking and Uncertainty Analysis

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide8

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Washington Football Team

 

Slide3

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WAS gets a nice easy overall DAP of +91 

I think if the WAS team had a better QB they could surprise. Your judgement and Vegas probably downgrades Alex Smith though. 

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RUSHING.

DAL does deal a tough RB DAP of +40. Gibson has been a great rookie but gets some test vs the WAS DEF. I ranked him at 86 low UNC. I think he will collect PPR points for you and if he pushes through the DAL DEF their house of cards could crumble. I also think McKissic gets back into the groove vs. the tougher DAL DEF. He is ranked at 60 average UNC. The one two punch might confound the DAL team. 

PASSING.

Alex Smith is ranked at 36 low UNC vs a easy QB DAP of 100. The DAL DEF is weaker vs. passing. The DAPs for the WR and TE are 103 and 87 DAPs. We have a great situation for passing with a weak QB. What is the bet? I ranked him at low UNC as I think he can produce some scores but not at the extreme. 

Thomas the TE I rank at 68 average UNC and McLaurin is at 89 a low UNC. I envision them to collect a score each. Note for DFS gambles the Sims Bros have maked some PPR points recently and could surprise. 

If the QB was Wilson or Rodgers WAS would win. What does Smith do? Is this the peak for him? 

 

Team/Positional/Player/Ranking and Uncertainty Analysis

Thanksgiving Thursday Fights. Slide11

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My SNAPs Report for this week is here. Snaps Report for this Week

Happy Thanksgiving! 

 

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