Week 10 is here and there’s a lot to like here! 9 teams are slated to score over 26 points with Green Bay having the biggest spread differential as 13.5 point home favorites. CMC is out and Mike Davis is too cheap. I’m likely underweight on him in tournaments though but I’m not fading him completely.
I’m targeting the ARI/BUF heavily as I think Murray puts up a 50 burger. I actually am into pairing Murray with one of his punt tight ends (BUF 2nd most DKPt to TE for 2020) and running it back with Diggs and Brown. I’ve said too much… Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Drew Brees, $6400, New Orleans Saints
1.4% projected ownership
The first thing I like to do each week is sort the Vegas implied odds and take a look at QB projections. This week, I was surprised to see how lightly owned Brees was projected given the Saints massive team total (29.) Brees has seemed like an undesirable play given his advanced age and inability to gain yards on the ground a la Kyler Murray.
Over the past 4 weeks, however, the Saints have actually earned the 2nd most fantasy points by the quarterback position. According to Football Outsiders, the matchup in the trenches is a good one too for the Saints as their offensive line ranks 3rd best in sack rate.
Brees is nursing a shoulder injury but returned to practice Thursday and is expected to have top target Michael Thomas available as well.
Chalk QB: Murray, Allen, Goff
Also Consider: Rodgers, Wilson, Herbert
Let’s Get Weird QB: Jones, Tua
Antonio Gibson, $5600, Washington Football Team
1% projected ownership
The worry behind rostering Gibson in any given week is that Washington falls behind and we see a bunch of McKissic dump offs in comeback mode. If we take a look at the DET offensive line, we find that they are bottom 5 in both pressure rating and sack conversion allowed.
If WFT is able to disrupt Stafford and create opportunity for the offense, one would expect lots of rushes with Gibson to avoid more problematic Alex Smith dropbacks. The Lions are 3rd worst in rushing attempts (213), yards (1079) and touchdowns allowed (10.) Boil this down into a per game clip and we’re looking at a nice 23/119/1 average.
Chalk RB: Kamara, Jones, Sanders, Davis (57% owned chalk I’ll underweight but obviously have exposure)
Also Consider: Conner
Let’s Get Weird RB: Carson, Jamaal Williams
Travis Fulgham, $6400, Philadelphia Eagles
2.9% projected ownership
Look for Fulgham’s breakout season to continue Sunday as he takes on the New York Giants on the road. Fresh off a bye week, expect Carson Wentz to look for the sophomore wideout early and often.
Since being called up from Philly’s practice squad, Fulgham has led the Eagles receivers in targets (44/8.8gm/avg), receptions (29/5.8gm/avg) and receiving touchdowns (4).
The Giants secondary has allowed the 5th most receiving yards and receptions to opposing wideouts. The Giants defense is also the 28th ranked DVOA against the position. Wheels up for the ODU stud!
Chalk WR: Diggs, Adams, Allen
Also Consider: Metcalf (8% is too low), Michael Thomas, Woods and Kupp (love the double stack with Metcalf bring back)
Let’s Get Weird WR: Randall Cobb (.1% ownership punt)
Evan Engram, $4500, New York Giants
15.9% projected ownership
“Talent, opportunity and matchup” is the “phone, wallet, keys” of fantasy football. In Evan Engram we have all three boxes checked here for Week 10. We know Engram is a talented player as he’s shown immense ceiling in the past. As with the other Giants skill position players, 2020 has not been their year.
However, over the past 3 weeks, Engram has seemed to get in a rhythm with quarterback Daniel Jones. Over these few weeks, Engram leads all tight ends in targets (29) ranks 3rd in air yards (185) and is tied for 3rd in receptions (16). The Eagles allow the 4th most DKPt (17gm/avg) and are tied for 3rd most touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends (6).
Chalk TE: Waller
Also Consider: Hockenson (all he does is score fantasy points at 5% ownership), Tonyan, Hooper
Let’s Get Weird TE: ARI TE (Arnold/Williams/Daniels)
NYG, PHI, PIT, GB
Let’s Get Weird DST:
(My preference in that order)