Week 10 Thursday Night Fight

Week 10 Thursday Night Fight

Week 10 Thursday Night Fight. This report uses Vegas/Defense Against the Positions (DAPs) Metrics, Rankings (0 to 100), and Uncertainty (High, Avg, or Low). Look for Highly Ranked Low UNC players in the right DAP environment. 

Vegas Week 10 Thursday Night Fight. 

Vegas Says it’s an above-average scoring game 49 ish total points. The line is a 1 point difference with TEN the expected winner over IND. That is a bold pick, and I would be cautious. It’s a Thursday night clash, and historically, Thursday games can be tricky. I would fade for weekly DFS. Showdowns should be light in investments! 

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Defense against the position (DAPS)

Week 10 Thursday Night Fight.  The Defense Against the Position (DAPS) metrics for this game are shown below. High Numbers (above 50) suggest an Easy situation for that position vs. Lower Numbers (below 50) suggests a Tough defense to that position.

The figure below highlights the “hot spots” for each team. These positions are the short rule of thumb for DFS and lineups for this week. 

You can read these metrics like the following:

1. When TEN is on offense, they face an overt tough IND DEF with a +1 DAP! (Strongest in the league). One of the reasons for caution. 

2. When IND has the ball, they face a very easy overall DEF at +90. This game represents an extreme in overall Defenses. 

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TEN Faces a Tough Task Tonight.

RUSHING

RBs +14 DAP

Henry thus is ranked highly at 99 but is Average UNC and does have a broader range of outcomes tonight. 

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PASSING

QB WR TE face +25, +50, and +27 DAPs 

Firstly, I rank Tannehill at 70 but Average UNC level. He is an ok play but other QBs are more attractive as streamers/starters this week. Tough

Next, Smith the TE is also ranked at 70 but High UNC vs a very Tough 27 DAPs. TEs are always hard to figure but based on his usages in the past must be considered especially if needing a streamer TE with Kelce on Bye! 

Finally, the WRs face an average DAP of 50 and should be played as needed. I consider Brown at 76 Low UNC play and will be started by most that have him. Davis is a High UNC play at 53 ranking and can fit in a DFS showdown play. 

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IND Nice Environment to Play Into

RUSHING

TEN get a +76 RB DAP

The issue is that IND has a hothand committee approach. Taylor is ranked at a High UNC 58 ranking but gets the first shot at the TEN DAP 76. If he takes off that could shut down Wilkins and Hines ranked at 50 and 49 Low UNC. I ranked Taylor as High UNC because playing him is a gamble. The other 2 RBs collect in a lot of possible outcomes where Taylor is a bust. 

PASSING

QB WR TE face +74, 82, and 87 DAPs 

Firstly, the game scripts and TEN DAPs against passing favor Rivers and throwing. I rank River still give the situation at High Unc 56. I would play him over Tannehill if I had both and needed to push my teams scoring for upside. Upside for Rivers hehe.  Next, I also favor the TE Burton slightly over MAC 64 vs 44 Low UNC. I think in some outcomes they both score. Finally, the WRs from IND have a great DAP environment but its seems to be a super committee of 4 WRs. They cut each others values. I rank only Johnson at a Low UNC but at 37. The others are High UNC WRs at 40, 38, and 22 for Pittman, Pascal, Hilton. In a DFS play, I choose Johnson>Pittman>Pascal=Hilton. Thus the TEs can both score in the platoon situation. 

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The DAP data suggest a IND domination, but Vegas says no it’s a close game, and TEN should score as well. 2 different data streams show 2 different levels of outcomes. In DFS,, I lean to IND, while ,I play all players RB/TE/WR as needed in redraft games. 

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My SNAPs Report for this week is here. Snaps Report for this Week