In Week 9, 10 teams have an implied team total of 26+ points. PIT and KC are each 10+ favorites against the spread. I’ll be monitoring some C-19 news and a couple notable injuries to see if any value opens up before Sunday. Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Kyler Murray, $7800, Arizona Cardinals
5.1% projected ownership
Murray is in play almost every week because of his rushing ability and supporting cast. Pair his ceiling with low projected ownership with the Cards’ team total that has steadily risen (27), and you have a recipe for success in the Milly Maker. Murray leads all QBs in rushing yards/game (62.4) and rushing TDs (7.) Over the past 4 weeks, the Cardinals rank 1st in FPts earned by QB and 3rd in WR FPts earned. Pair him with his favorite target, Hopkins, or double stack with Kirk too.
Even More Chalk QB:
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Wilson, Watson, Josh Allen
James Robinson, $7000, Jacksonville Jaguars
7.7% projected ownership
Robinson comes into Week 9 as the 7th highest projected point scorer at running back (17.05 DKPt) yet is the 12th highest projected owned player at the position. I’m not sure if it’s the stigma of him being a Jaguar or the fact that he came onto the scene as an UDFA, but regardless, this guy has been a stud for fantasy. Robinson is currently averaging 20.1 DKPt/gm at the halfway point in the season. According to Player Profiler’s Opportunity Share metric, Robinson leads all running backs in percentage of plays called involving his position (83.7%). The Texans’ woeful rush defense ranks 2nd worst in rushing TDs allowed (9) and 2nd worst in yards allowed to opposing running backs (1057). Fire him up!
Cook, Dallas, Edmonds
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Let’s Get Weird RB:
Marvin Hall, $3800, Detroit Lions
3.7% projected ownership
Hall was the team’s leading receiver (4/113) with Kenny Golladay going down with a hip injury in Week 8. With Golladay sidelined, Hall played 69% of the Lions snaps and led the team in Market Share air yards (31%.) His matchup with Cameron Dantzler is a good one too. Dantzler is tied for 3rd most touchdowns allowed in pass coverage (4.) At $3800, the path to 5x is only 19 DKPt (he had 18.3 last game). Hall yes! (Homer Simpson sinking back into the bushes gif after that dad joke).
Diggs, Lockett (will be below the field personally),
Hopkins (my top WR), Thielen, Hill
Let’s Get Weird WR:
Hardman (if Watkins misses especially), Chark, John Brown
Jordan Akins, $3300, Houston Texans
2.8% projected ownership
At this point I’d almost rather watch the election coverage than sift through tight end options for Sunday. Like most weeks, we have Kelce up top and then it’s just a matter of punting plays at the position. Yet, here we are. I do actually like this spot for the Texans tight end group though. Per Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, the Texans’ tight ends have the best possible matchup against the position. The Jaguars have allowed the 2nd most TDs (7) and 6th most DKPt to opposing tight ends (16.6 gm/avg.) I’ll also take a couple shots on Fells in MME.
Let’s Get Weird TE:
Ebron, Hockenson (6.2% WTF)
WAS, PIT, NYG, ARI
Let’s Get Weird DST:
ATL (my top option at DST based on salary and matchup) MIN(if Stafford misses)
(My preference in that order)