Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, that deconstruction is a strong method for investigations leading to hypothesis testing and research findings.

________________________________________

Week 5 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sport professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups and DFS plays.

The top teams in week 5 for fantasy are DAL/KC/LAR/IND. IND has a solid matchup and Rivers could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams in here are NYJ DEN MIN PHI NE LV for week 5. All these teams have issues this week. Move away from them especially any gamble or marginal plays.

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide69

———————————————————–

Week 5 Team Scaled FSPR Player Averages

This Bar graph is visual aid in considering the FSPR Team rankings. I scaled the data against the week 5 league average to calculate a Team’s advantage or disadvantage for this week.

For example, DAL and KC are very high as compared to the other teams. DFS Stacking?

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide70

———————————————————–

Team Level Uncertainty

Week 5 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • Low uncertainty teams on the other hand can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 5’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs Low UNC. Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, KC is a lower UNC team with the second highest FSPRs (see above).  DAL on the other was high in FSPR but has AVG UNC leading to a higher player variation prediction.  ARI was also high in FSPR and low in UNC an could be a gamble DFS stack! Compare the two data streams for other focus worthy teams in week 5

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide72

———————————————————–

Bar Graph Plot of Week 5 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 5 Rankings with Uncertainty. The simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 5. The low UNC are low green stained and plotted to the left vs the high UNC are high red stained to the right. The level of each team can be used for further decisions.

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide73

———————————————————–

Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR Week 5 under the right UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking no UNC

———————————————————-

 

Defenses

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide75

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide76

 

———————————————————–

 

KICKERs

Slide78

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide79

———————————————————–

 

Quarterbacks

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide81

________________________________________

Slide82

———————————————————–

 

Running Backs

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide84

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide85

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide86

________________________________________

Slide87

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide88

———————————————————–

 

Tight Ends

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide90

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide91

———————————————————–

 

Wide Receivers

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide93

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide94

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide95

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide96

———————————————————–

 

Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 5 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table, the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer easy spots for players but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher scoring games.

As the points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on the talent not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

———————————————————–

Week 5 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. The Table below lists the 8 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week and thus you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

I will go through the MIN vs SEA Game as an example to follow for all games using my process.

________________________________________

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide7

———————————————————–

 

MIN vs SEA – Example Analysis

________________________________________

Week DAP Analysis Game By Game

Slide9

Each Game Matchup started with Vegas as should above. Min vs Sea is a predicted High Scoring Game. Next I use DAPs to fill in the environment for each team.

Each DAP Figure contains:

  • Team Consider
  • Opponent Team
  • OPP Team’s Defense vs Rushing/Passing/Pass-Catching (Tough vs Easy with average being a blank designation)
  • Positional DAPs -Specific DAPs for each Position ( 0 to 100 Scaled -RED DAPs are tougher vs Green DAPs are easier)

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide9

When MIN has the ball, they face a tough rushing environment but every easy passing and pass-catching. Cook fights into a strong rushing defense of SEA and may do his best working catching passes out of the backfield. Cousins the QB gets a easy passing DAP of 93 and should collect multiple TDs. Thielen and Jefferson face a nice 120 DAPs and can score multiples. The TEs face the toughest environment of a 27 DAP.

When SEA has the ball, they get an average level defense vs rushing/passing/receiving. Wilson fights into a 49 DAP (average) but Lockett and DK get a sweet easy 100 DAP for multiple scoring from the WRs. The TE crew of Olsen etc. faces a tough environment vs a 7 TE DAP. Finally, Carson gets an average DAP for an average game potential.

NOTE Vegas says High Scoring and I should nice WRs and Passing is predictable. Stack WRs not RBs or TEs if needed.

________________________________________

WEEK 5 rankings FSPR (Fantasy Sport Professor’s Rankings).

The actual FSPR tables list the positions with player rankings 0 to 100 ish under their UNC level colorized for ease of viewing. Scan and then place in contexts of the above information. I do have COOK at 98 even going against a tough RB DAPs. This is always an issue but I go with my top players even under tough conditions.

Slide10

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide11

________________________________________

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide13

———————————————————–

Slide14

———————————————————–

Slide15

________________________________________

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide17

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide18

———————————————————–

Slide19

________________________________________

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide21

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide22

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. lide23

________________________________________

 

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty. Slide25

———————————————————–

Slide26

———————————————————–

Slide27

________________________________________

 

Slide29

———————————————————–

Slide30

———————————————————–

Slide31

________________________________________

 

Slide33

———————————————————–

Slide34

———————————————————–

Slide35

________________________________________

 

Slide37

———————————————————–

Slide38

———————————————————–

Slide39

________________________________________

 

Week 4 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

———————————————————–

Slide41

———————————————————–

 

Slide43

———————————————————–

Slide44

———————————————————–

Slide45

———————————————————–

 

Slide47

———————————————————–

Slide48

———————————————————–

Slide49

———————————————————–

 

Slide51

———————————————————–

Slide52

———————————————————–

Slide53

———————————————————–

 

Slide55

———————————————————–

Slide56

———————————————————–

Slide57

________________________________________

 

Week 4 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (above 41 total game points)

Slide59

———————————————————–

 

Slide61

———————————————————–

Slide62

———————————————————–

Slide63

———————————————————–

 

Slide65

———————————————————–

Slide66

———————————————————–

Slide67

———————————————————–

Week 5 Rankings With Uncertainty.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: