Week 3 Rankings With Uncertainty

John Bush
September 26, 2020

Week 3 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 3 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles. The approach I use is the synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down into the specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, that is a strong method for investigations leading to research and hypothesis testing.

My SNAPs Report Link to Snaps Report for this Week
My Targets and Touches Report Link to Targets and Touches Report

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 3 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level uncertainty. High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups. Low uncertainty teams on the other hand can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The Table below presents week 3’s UNC numbers from each Team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or Avg in UNC vs. Low UNC. This ratio looks into the Team’s overall uncertainty for consideration.

Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes. This week WAS/ATL/BUF/DAL/LAC are the teams having more Low UNC players while SF/PHI/NYG are those with High UNC!

Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams.

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Bar Graph Plot of Week 3 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 3 Rankings with Uncertainty. The simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 3. The low UNC are low green stained and plotted to the left vs the high UNC are high red stained to the right. The level of each team can be used for further decisions.

For example, SF is the Highest UNC team for week three by a high amount. Caution as the range of SF player outcomes is High!

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

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Use to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays. Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming.

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Defenses

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KICKERs

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

I present the heart of my week 3 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move to higher-scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the Table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics to see the sweet spots and traps for the players. I like to go toward safer, easy spots for a player, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Focus on the talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

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Week 3 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 48 total game points)

The Table below lists the four games that Vegas suggest will be high scoring this week, and thus you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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SEA vs DAL

All the week 3 match-ups following have my DAPs landscape for deeper analysis. I will set the stage but I need you to do your own research using my metrics are prompts! I believe working for the information is better for your play than my laying it out on a silver platter!

These DAP metrics contain:

The Two Teams
Their Opponents (Colorized by Overall Defense Tough to Easy (Red to Blue).
Home vs Away Games (Usually the Home Team gets 3 points for an Home game).
Rushing DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
QB Passing DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
Receivers DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
Specific DAPs for Offense/RB/QB/WR/TE/K/DEF (Easy Is Green Positive DAPS vs Tougher Red Negative DAPs)

Use the quick view to find the extremes then drill down into the specific positional DAPs. Adjust DFS and lineups accordingly.

Example DAP Analysis – SEA vs DAL

When SEA has the ball their TE have an easy game +39 DAP (Hello Olsen?) and their RB and QB an average game. The interesting aspect is WRs face into a -20 WR DAP and they will fight for their PPR points. That does not mean bench as Locket/Metcalf are strongly ranked even with a tough week 3 landscape.

When DAL has the ball, their TEs have an easy game at +17.9 ( TE Schultz report for duty this week). Additionally, the QB and WR have an easy to average time. The DAL RBs face an average game as well. Play DAL players as needed.

KEY- SEA WRs!

WEEK 2 rankings FSPR (Fantasy Sport Professor’s Rankings).

These figures contain:

Team
Positions (Colorized and Sorted High to Low / Green to Red)
Player FSPR Rankings Numbers under their UNC level (High, Avg, and Low UNC).

SEA

Wilson the SEA QB is the high QB at 96 and low UNC

The RBs of SEA are Carson at 87 low UNC and Hyde at 47 ranking but high UNC.

Olsen the TE is 43 ranked in an average UNC.

The WRs, Lockett and Metcalf, from SEA are 88 and 87 low UNC.

DAL

DAK is at 91 ranking average UNC

Elliot is 100 top RB of Week 3 and low UNC

Schultz is 42 ranked at high UNC

Cooper/Gallup/Lamb are 93, 78 and 76.7 low UNC.