Snap Report Week 2

Snap Report Week 2

Snap Report Week 2. We are in the early part of the season and over reactions are everywhere. I use Snap Metrics to balance the over-reactions.

I suggest using snaps:

  • To see the usage patterns within teams and positions
  • Find the next player up in case of injury. Make your list now to avoid panic
  • Determine the Team Speed to determine the Team trends of more passing or rushing. In PPR finding passing teams will have deeper WRs in play.
  • Fine-tune your thinking concerning a player’s reputation vs reality. 2020 is not 2019!

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Team Snaps/Second of Offensive Play

I have documented the SNAP/Seconds metrics associated with a team’s passing or rushing bias. Faster teams are passing more while slower teams are rushing based.

Below is the current Team Snaps/Sec metrics vs Targeting Averaging. The table lists:

  • Team (Colorized Green Faster Teams vs Red Slower Teams)
  • Average of Snaps/Second
  • Scaled Snaps/Second (vs the league average)
  • Team Targeting Average
  • Less than 4 targets average (X marks the low passing teams)

The overall speed of the teams are associated with targets. The slower teams contained 60% of the 12 slow targeting teams vs 25% within the Fast Teams (X marks the spot).

Assume the faster teams are passing and slower ones are rushing based. Pick in DFS and Line-ups for week 3 RBs vs Pass catchers. Good Tie breakers between similarity ranked players!

The interesting teams are those that seem opposite.  MIN/TB/CLE Fast but Low Targets. PHI/DAL/ARI Slow but High Targets.

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2020 Team Snaps vs Target Averages

Another way to see the metrics is a landscape view which gives us a complete scan across the league. This is team sport played weekly! Simple phrase but key for thinking. 

Green Teams are fast vs Red Teams slower speed. Move RBs toward your DFS/Line-ups in slower teams. Move Pass-catchers to DFS/Line-ups in fast teams. 

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TEAM Positional Player Snaps For Week 1 and 2 vs PPR Scoring Efficiency 

I use these team level snaps and scoring (100 to 0) informatics to fine-tune my thinking for DFS and Line-ups. 

Key Views:

  • Week to Week Snap Changes
  • Use of Positions with Teams
  • Total Snaps vs Player PPR Scoring 

ARI for example uses its 3 WRs highly but Kirk seems weak and he is not scoring. Drop Kirk? I did! TEs are weak so its a pass for me. Drake is the boss RB but scoring eh! Edmonds has juice in Scoring EFF but not used enough. Watch for increases especially when ARI figures to be behind. Edmonds a DFS Tournament play? 

Snap Report Week 2

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Snap Report Week 2

Jones Scoring EFF? Hurst just ok. Gurley underachieving. 

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Snap Report Week 2

RBs spread to much! 

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Snap Report Week 2

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Snap Report Week 2

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Snap Report Week 2

Mooney>Miller?

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Snap Report Week 2

WRs underachieving. 

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Snap Report Week 2

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Snap Report Week 2

Gallup? 

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Snap Report Week 2

Hamler ascending?

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Swift???

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Dillon Asleep? Lazard>MVS?

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Cooks ascending! 

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WRs? Hilton?

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Robinson Split vs Thompson. Do not over-react. 

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Watkins??

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Kelly Ascendin. Guyton the 3rd WR?

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RBBC? 

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WRs underachieving 

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Gesicki over-reaction?  Parker coming up? Gaskins top RB?

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Burkhead when White is out!  Edelman? No TEs used.

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TQS when MT not in. Cook ok? 

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Tate WR3. Engram solid snaps eh on Scoring. 

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Gore when Bell out? Hogan WR1 when Crowder out. 

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2WR committee. 2TE committee. Sanders solid?

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Ebron ascending. Claypool mirage?

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Olsen solid?

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Aiyuk arrived! Reed 28 snaps over-reaction? Wilson gamble vs McKinnon?

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Watson WR3? Howard vs Gronk. 

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Batson WR3 with AJ out? Smith the TE ascending. Henry variable in Snaps?

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Thomas TE solid! Gibson RB1?

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Player Snaps vs Scoring EFF with Positions.

We as humans are fooled by our fast thinking. I use landscape level metrics to balance my thinking! Halo effects are all around us! I highlight just a small sample of players that should move up to their mean? The opposite players are too high in Scoring EFF! 

Another cognitive bias that has its roots in the availability heuristic is known as the optimism bias. Essentially, we tend to be too optimistic for our own good. We overestimate the likelihood that good things will happen to us while underestimating the probability that negative events will impact our lives (teams ). ^^

https://www.verywellmind.com/cognitive-biases-distort-thinking-2794763

 

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Running Backs

  • Drake 108 Snaps vs 41.2 Scoring EFF
  • Henry 105 vs 38.4
  • Johnson 104 vs 49.8
  • Ekeler 97 vs 46.2

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Tight Ends

  • Conklin 133 Snaps vs 18.1 Scoring EFF
  • Engram 127 vs 32.5 
  • Hooper 113 vs 19.3 

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Wide Receivers

  • Allan 151 vs 40.4
  • Gallup 144 vs 28.5
  • Williams 132 vs 30.9 
  • Fitzgerald 126 vs 40.4 

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Week 1 and 2 Scoring EFF

I took all positions and sorted from high to low in Scoring EFF. Thoughts are SNAPs vs Scoring EFF is clear. Higher players with lower Snaps are candidate for Regression to the Mean? Caution in DFS and Line-ups! 

Week 1 saw that TEs dominated the top 25 players while Week 2 is 10/26 RB, WR 11/26 and TE is 5/26. Was Week 1 a more conservative week with TEs being over used in scoring? Week 2 seems more balanced! 

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