Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Welcome to week 3 of 2020 with MIA vs JAC. This article will focus you on my approach to fantasy football. I use Vegas metrics, defense against the positions, my fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) and my uncertainty analysis. 

See my other article   Snap Report Weeks 1 and 2

I will be posting my Targets and Touches Report Friday and Final Rankings Week 3 on Saturday. Come back and drill down for week 3 success :)!

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MIA vs JAC Vegas View

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. The figure below highlights the Vegas landscape of this game. 

  • The Game Points are expected to be above average (45 total points)
  • JAC is the favorite by a home field advantage of 3 to 6 points. 

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide60

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Thursday Night Games always have great uncertainty and these two teams are no exceptions. I am using the only players who I have to. I am fading in DFS. This is not a game for gambles. 

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MIA vs JAC Defense Against the Positions (DAPs)

Below the Vegas material is my Defense Against the Positions. Positive numbers suggest easy DAPs vs negative numbers mean a tougher DAPs at the position.

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide61

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MIA DAPs

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. When MIA has the ball, they are facing an easy way for their rushing but their WRs have a tough go. I note the MIA have a +40 RB rushing environment. The MIA RBs should collect a lot of PPR points. The 3 way group seems to be led by Gaskins, the other may do well also. MIA will need to score enough to slow the game down using the rushing game.

The WRs and TEs of MIA will have to deal with a tougher DAP environment. WR at -11 and TEs at -17 DAPs. I would only use if needed this week.

MIA Analysis

This landscape I paint for MIA is shown below. These figures present:

  • Team
  • Positions (DST K QB RB TE and WR)
  • FSPR (100 to 0)
  • Player Uncertainty Level  * High * AVG  * Low
  • Uncertainty implies the level of expectations are broad to narrow. 
  • QB is 25 FSPR AVG UNC
  • RBs are at an advantage and GASKINs is my top RB at 62 but High Uncertainty for his outcomes (gamble). I think Howard is the safest but ranked at 58 he is not a great play. (DFS gamble?)
  • TE is AVG UNC and he is a volume play at 70 FSPRs and may collect in check downs as the JAC DAPs are tougher on receiving.  
  • WRs are Parker and Williams for the main plays tonight. Both are ranked near 66 FSPRs AVG to LOW UNC. Given the DAPs, I am not stretching these into my line-ups. 

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide23

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JAC DAPs

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide61

When JAC has the ball, they face a passing and receiving DAP landscape that is easy. The reason JAC is favored! I expect Minshew at +7 DAP to have a nice passing game. The WRs play into a +32 DAP. Nice! The JAC TE is average and a gamble to play. Robinson the RB should be collecting yards at a +4 RB DAPs. I might push JAC into line-ups both I never sure for Thursday night plays. 🙁

JAC Analysis

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis.

  • QB is AVG Uncertain and ranked at 70 and collects a nice game
  • Robinson is 83 ranked and AVG UNC (play if needed)
  • Eifert is AVG UNC but 29. Not playing him.
  • The WRs are murky as Chark has an injury and is Questionable. If Chark plays I have him at 88 and AVG UNC. Next, the tricky play is Shenault at 60 LOW UNC! He becomes a sharp play is Chark is out and just an ok play if Chark plays. Also, Cole and Conley have collected this season and Minshew passes the ball around.

Week 3 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide18

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