Week 14 gifts us a massive 13 game main slate. MIN and GB are 13 point home favorites. 7 teams sport a team total of 25 or more. A number of high profile, starting running backs, are questionable, so monitor these injuries in a chance that some value opens up. The Texans/Broncos and Dolphins/Jets are my favorite games to stack on the slate.
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, $6000, Miami Dolphins
4% projected ownership
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Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker were dialed in as the Dolphins pulled off possibly the biggest upset of the season in defeating the Eagles. Fitzmagic has 5x and 6xed his DK salary in back to back games but is only priced up $400 because of his perceived volatility. The matchup against the Jets isn’t threatening while missing top defensemen Adams, Poole and Austin. The Jets are below average against opposing quarterbacks (16th best matchup for QB.) In their last meeting, Fitzpatrick went 288/3 which was good for 23.7 DKPts.
Kirk Cousins, $6700, Minnesota Vikings
After a slow start, Cousins ranks 6th among quarterbacks since Week 5. With Dalvin Cook less than 100%, expect the Vikings to lessen his load to keep him healthy for the playoffs (Cook is off the injury report but still worth monitoring). The Vikings have the highest implied total on the slate, with Vegas expecting them to score 28 points. After getting gashed by the run to begin the year, the Lions have quietly given up the 6th most FPts to opposing quarterbacks. The fact that this game is played indoors on the fast track only makes the play more appealing in these frigid weeks.
Rodgers (Redskins 5th worst against QB past month with GB 28 point implied total), Brissett, Kyle Allen, Hodges (punt with nut matchup)
Sony Michel, $5600, New England Patriots
To say Sony Michel has been a disappointing fantasy commodity is an understatement. His lack of involvement in the passing game turns many off on a PPR site like Draft Kings. However, I’m buying him with his deflated salary, ownership and matchup. New England is currently sporting the 4th highest team total at 26.25. The Chiefs rank dead last in DKPts allowed to the position with a 32.6 gm/avg. If there’s any week for Michel to go for 100/1, this is it.
Nick Chubb, $8000, Cleveland Browns
8% projected ownership
Chubb should be lighter owned on Sunday, having posted 2 sub 10 point outings twice in 3 weeks. Those two subpar results came against the Steelers (6th stingiest against RB DKPts allowed.) This week should be much easier, with the Bengals coming to town. The Bengals give up the 7th most DKPts to opposing running backs at a 27.3 avg/game clip. The Bengals rank dead last in explosive run plays of 10+ yards allowed while the Browns rank top 10 in explosive run plays earned. The Browns’ total has been bet up from 24 to 25 points.
Derrick Henry, $8200, Tennessee Titans
9% projected ownership
No other running back has been hotter over the last month than Derrick Henry. In his last 3 outings, Henry has rushed for 496 yards and 5 touchdowns. He trails only McCaffrey as far as usage goes, according to JoshADHD’s Premium Usage App accounting for 40.6% the Titans’ MS of touches. PFF ranks this OL/DL matchup 5th best for the run and the Raiders give up the 12th most fantasy points to running backs.
Cook (overweight the field at 4%, I also expect his ownership to rise given him not being listed on the Injury Report), Bell, Gordon, Fournette, Snell, White
Laird (just stop)
Mike Evans, $7200, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Naturally, this will be a Godwin week with my recommendation of Evans. Don’t get me wrong, they’re both in nice spots to exceed expectations. Evans hasn’t had a slate breaking performance in awhile but his usage is still excellent. He leads the team in MS Targets inside the 10 (66.7%.) The one weakness in the Colts’ defense is their secondary, where they have the 8th worst pass DVOA. According to Rotogrinders’ WR vs. CB Matchup chart, both Evans and Godwin are top 10 plays.
DJ Moore, $7000, Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore has led the Panthers in receiving yards and has slowly become a reliable WR1 in fantasy. A weekly double-digit target hog, Moore has 5 straight games with 6+ receptions. The Panthers head to Atlanta to take on the tanking Falcons, where Moore will face off against weekly DFS target Isaiah Taylor (regular readers know I love targeting him.) Without rehashing the reasons to target Taylor, just know the Falcons are 27th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA and allow 39.5 DKPts gm/avg to opposing wide receivers (7th worst.)
Parker (back to the well)
Golladay, Sutton, Pascal, Fuller, James Washington, Marvin Jones (Viking killer)
Jack Doyle, $4600, Indianapolis Colts
Doyle will surely be popular Sunday and for good reason. Since Ebron has been placed on IR, Doyle has been thrust into an every down role for the Colts (logging 94% of snaps in Week 13.) In a very ugly week at tight end, the opportunity, matchup and price makes Doyle a very strong play. The Bucs give up the 2nd most DKPts to opposing tight ends with a 16 gm/avg.
McDonald, Griffin, Rudolph, Gesicki
CAR, TB, PIT, NYJ
My preference in that order