Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 13 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 13 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games.

Slide1

==================================================

KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 13 Games –  4 this week.

Notes for this week. I colorized each team name as to their defense (green easy to red hard).

KC vs OAK and JAX vs TB both have easy defenses. These shootout games seem to be supported by the defensive metrics. I suggest moving to these games in DFS.

==================================================

Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics

The following tables highlight the Week 13 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 12 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • Find the extremes as use for week 13 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

I sorted by the overall OFF DAP (Offenses DAP) and that revealed that TB/ARI/MIA/DET/OAK/ATL (GREEN) are seemingly the easy teams to fight.

PIT/NO/SF/NE (RED) are the opposite teams and are thought to be the toughtest teams to face.

Slide3

==================================================

Interesting Fun Facts for DFS etc.

  • Easiest TB except the toughest in RB DAP- 20 DAP? 
  • KC average but so easy to RBs 120 RB DAP?
  • CAR/LAC/BUF Tough except for the RB at 83/86/81 RB DAPs
  • MIN seems tough but 100 WR DAP?
  • CHI Tough except for RB at 84 DAP.
  • CIN Easy except for 58 WR DAP
  • TB/ARI 100 TE DAPs. All-day Play. 
  • Extremes are Key

==================================================

Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 13.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 13. Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings.

==================================================

Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections

Use these charts to plan week 13 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.

==================================================

HIGH Shoot-Out Week 13 Games

This week is of extremes 4 High vs 5 Low Games. I would then move to the 4 and away from the low. Please consider my Notes above on the KC vs OAK and JAX vs TB games

The DFS key may be collecting surprises in the other games. Find surprises!

Slide5

Keys are

  • JAX get QB/WR/TE easy DAPs
  • TB get RB easy DAPs
  • KC gets RB/QB easy DAPs
  • OAK gets RB easy DAP
  • NO gets QB/WR easy DAP
  • SEA gets WR easy DAPs

==================================================

Above Average Scoring Week 13 Games

I consider the DAPs above 70 in a tough background deserve extra thoughts. I use landscape top-down analysis using the Vegas suggestions with DAPs. See the positive scripts below.

slide6-11.jpg

  • LAR gets easy RB/QB/WR/TE all positions
  • ARI gets easy WR DAPs
  • NYG gets easy RB/TE DAPs

==================================================

Below Average Scoring Week 13 Games

See the positive scripts below. 

  • DAL RBs
  • NE QB/WR/RB
  • TEN WRs
  • PHI RB/QB/WRs

Slide7

==================================================

Low Scoring Week 13 Games

See the positive scripts below. 

  • CAR RBs
  • WAS RB/WRs
  • CHI RB/QB/WR
  • DET RB
  • CIN QB/WRs
  • NYJ  RB/QB
  • PIT QB/WRs
  • DEN RBs

Slide8

==================================================

Team Player Rankings Averages Week 13

My Landscape fantasy painting for week 13 also includes an overview of each team and a grand player FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings) average. These rankings should move you to the top teams and away from the lower teams.

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking. The raw averages and scaled averages give us a nice Team Level landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups.

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week.

I highlighted the week 13 high average teams Bright Green vs low teams Red Stained.

Interesting that LAC/CLE are top-rated vs the DAPs/VEGAS want to knock them down. I interpret this to mean these teams have the talent to achieve more than thought. Caution, however, is suggested.  I try to not overdo Vegas and DAPs in my Rankings Gumbo to figure out the player talent levels. Tiebreak with Vegas/DAPs metrics. Talent is first then other metrics.

Slide13

==================================================

Visual Plot for Week 13 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

The plot lets you see the differences in a visual way. Note LAC vs NO is one and two but this week the difference is 20% between the two in a vacuum.  Note WAS is off in its own space. Suggest caution in WAS players.

Slide14

==================================================

Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

==================================================

Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 13 Teams

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 12 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!

I annotated for week 13 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • NYG/SEA/JAX/CLE/DEN/TB/BUF/NE/LAC/GB/CAR
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • PHI/DET/MIA/ARI/TEN/OAK/SF/BAL/ATL/LAR

The table and graph display the week 13 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings.

slide10-11.jpg

==================================================

The Plot of Week 13 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in PHI/DET/MIA/ARI/TEN/OAK etc and that implies caution as your plays.

slide11-11.jpg

==================================================

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 12 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience.  Analysis of these metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view of your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 13.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 13 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis.

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

==================================================

DST, K, and QBs

Slide16Slide17

==================================================

Slide19Slide20

==================================================

Slide22Slide23

==================================================

Running Backs

Slide25Slide26Slide27Slide28

==================================================

Tight Ends

Slide30Slide31

==================================================

Wide Receivers

Slide33Slide34Slide35Slide36Slide37

==================================================

Team Level Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment is shown below.  These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and note the averages and green colorizations.

All sections should be in contexts of VEGAS/DAP/UNC levels.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

Slide39Slide40Slide41Slide42Slide43Slide44Slide45Slide46Slide47Slide48Slide49Slide50Slide51Slide52Slide53Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide54Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide55Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide56Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide57Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide58Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide59Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide60Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide61Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide62Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide63Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide64Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide65Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide66Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide67Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide68Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide69Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty Slide70

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings With Uncertainty

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: